ATL → MSP Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · ATLNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:52 UTC

Atlanta airport profile →

Destination · MSPNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:53 UTC

Minneapolis airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

78/ 100Strong

Better than 82% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 11,156 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

81.5%

9,042 of 11,095

Cancellation rate

0.42%

47 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-6 min

Average 3.9 min

Severe delays

5.2%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

58 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

11,156

3 carriers

ATL → MSP arrives on time 81.5% of the time; the return trip, MSP → ATL, arrives on time 82.9% of the time.

ATL → MSP spends 23.0 minutes on the ground on a 907-mile trip: 16.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at ATL and 6.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 98% of 5,368 comparable routes.

80.2% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 80.1% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

33 min late

against a median of 6 min early

Arrived an hour or more late5.2%

Typical delay when late58 min

Cancelled0.42%

Landed somewhere else0.13%

Percentiles over 11,156 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at MSP after arriving from ATL.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, ATL → MSP arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	35%	Likely to miss
45 min	18%	High risk
60 min	11%	Some risk
90 min	5.1%	Some risk
120 min	2.8%	Low risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.42% of the time and diverts 0.13% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 11,095 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 33 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 11,156 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

ATL → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.4% of the time, against 72.6% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 17.8 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (ATL).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 7.7 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.5 points.

On-time arrival rate for ATL to MSP by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM
9 PM–10 PM
10 PM–11 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

65–69
70–74
75–79
80–84
85–89
90–94

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 7 AM and after 11 PM (470 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for ATL to MSP. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
7 AM–8 AM	91.3% on time185 flights	93.3% on time195 flights	90.2% on time195 flights	92.2% on time192 flights	87.8% on time182 flights	89.7% on time176 flights	90.2% on time196 flights
8 AM–9 AM	87.0% on time161 flights	92.9% on time155 flights	91.8% on time147 flights	91.4% on time162 flights	93.5% on time156 flights	88.3% on time146 flights	86.3% on time162 flights
9 AM–10 AM	41 flights, too few to score	41 flights, too few to score	39 flights, too few to score	64 flights, too few to score	45 flights, too few to score	46 flights, too few to score	68 flights, too few to score
10 AM–11 AM	85.2% on time149 flights	86.9% on time154 flights	89.7% on time145 flights	88.7% on time150 flights	85.6% on time147 flights	84.3% on time140 flights	87.6% on time147 flights
11 AM–12 PM	45 flights, too few to score	36 flights, too few to score	43 flights, too few to score	42 flights, too few to score	43 flights, too few to score	43 flights, too few to score	44 flights, too few to score
12 PM–1 PM	78.9% on time171 flights	90.4% on time166 flights	92.2% on time166 flights	79.2% on time173 flights	86.6% on time174 flights	90.7% on time161 flights	80.8% on time173 flights
1 PM–2 PM	84.9% on time139 flights	86.7% on time120 flights	86.4% on time125 flights	77.7% on time130 flights	80.2% on time132 flights	111 flights, too few to score	82.7% on time129 flights
2 PM–3 PM	44 flights, too few to score	27 flights, too few to score	33 flights, too few to score	38 flights, too few to score	38 flights, too few to score	25 flights, too few to score	38 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	76.3% on time171 flights	77.8% on time145 flights	79.0% on time144 flights	72.7% on time165 flights	74.9% on time169 flights	74.8% on time143 flights	76.0% on time168 flights
4 PM–5 PM	63 flights, too few to score	60 flights, too few to score	60 flights, too few to score	63 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	76 flights, too few to score	60 flights, too few to score
5 PM–6 PM	110 flights, too few to score	55 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	91 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score	57 flights, too few to score	92 flights, too few to score
6 PM–7 PM	13 flights, too few to score	61 flights, too few to score	57 flights, too few to score	9 flights, too few to score	17 flights, too few to score	54 flights, too few to score	21 flights, too few to score
7 PM–8 PM	70.5% on time132 flights	86 flights, too few to score	88 flights, too few to score	66.7% on time132 flights	67.7% on time130 flights	82 flights, too few to score	70.2% on time126 flights
8 PM–9 PM	19 flights, too few to score	16 flights, too few to score	15 flights, too few to score	21 flights, too few to score	22 flights, too few to score	15 flights, too few to score	17 flights, too few to score
9 PM–10 PM	10 flights, too few to score	4 flights, too few to score	4 flights, too few to score	27 flights, too few to score	15 flights, too few to score	5 flights, too few to score	10 flights, too few to score
10 PM–11 PM	76.1% on time136 flights	81.5% on time130 flights	80.9% on time131 flights	74.8% on time131 flights	68.9% on time134 flights	77.6% on time136 flights	75.9% on time137 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM90.4%

9 AM–12 PM84.4%

12–3 PM84.1%

3–6 PM74.0%

6–9 PM72.6%

9 PM–5 AM74.5%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why ATL → MSP runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

The airline51.2%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Late-arriving aircraft22.9%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

Air traffic control18.9%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather6.8%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for ATL → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of ATL to MSP: 3.3 times the normal rate at ATL and 3.1 times at MSP. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: ATL 3.4% against 1.0%, MSP 2.4% against 0.8%. Flights that did leave MSP in bad weather arrived on time 65.6% of the time, against 83.5% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from ATL and MSP in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	ATL	MSP
Cancelled in bad weather	3.4%	2.4%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.0%	0.8%
Arrived on time, bad weather	66.5%	65.6%
Arrived on time, normal hours	80.2%	83.5%
Departures in bad weather	105,854	42,174

Spirit Airlines (3.9% cancelled against 3.2% for the other carriers at ATL) and Frontier Airlines (5.0% cancelled against 3.8% for the other carriers at ATL) cancelled more departures from ATL in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly better.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at ATL

All departures from ATL

Cancellation rates in bad weather at ATL for the airlines that fly ATL to MSP, against the other carriers at ATL in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Delta Air Lines	73,919	3.5%about level	3.6%
Spirit Airlines	2,965	3.9%above the others	3.2%
Frontier Airlines	4,928	5.0%above the others	3.8%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from ATL and MSP, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from ATL on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: ATL (airlines), MSP, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
Delta Air Lines	9,748	82.2%	0.34%	-6 min	4.9%
Spirit Airlines	1,038	83.2%	0.58%	-7 min	5.0%
Frontier Airlines	368	58.1%	2.17%	5 min	15.6%

Delta Air Lines flew 87.4% of the 11,154 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 2.17% of its flights here against 0.34% for Delta Air Lines.

Spirit Airlines arrived on time 25.1 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
DL2901 Delta Air Lines	12:15 PM	1,125	86.1%
DL1310 Delta Air Lines	10:48 PM	1,045	75.9%
DL2654 Delta Air Lines	5:59 PM	1,009	76.9%
DL2825 Delta Air Lines	1:48 PM	984	82.7%
DL2668 Delta Air Lines	7:05 AM	953	90.6%
DL2981 Delta Air Lines	3:40 PM	857	74.6%
DL1280 Delta Air Lines	7:25 PM	854	70.7%
DL2960 Delta Air Lines	8:25 AM	805	90.1%

DL2668 (7:05 AM) arrived on time 90.6% of the time, 19.9 points more often than DL1280 (7:25 PM) at 70.7%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon80.2%

Tue85.2%

Wed85.3%

Thu79.9%

Fri79.3%

Sat82.3%

Sun79.0%

Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 6.3 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 20.2 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 80.2% against 80.1% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 11,156 ATL → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

ATL airport MSP airport Return direction MSP → ATL

ATL→MSP

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why ATL → MSP runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at ATL

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology