Route profile
MSP→ANC
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Anchorage, 2,519 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 68% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,203 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSP → ANC arrives on time 79.3% of the time; the return trip, ANC → MSP, arrives on time 83.6% of the time, a 4.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → ANC spends 23.0 minutes on the ground on a 2,519-mile trip: 17.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 5.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at ANC.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to ANC differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to ANC is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 4 PM: 88.4% arrive on time, 12.9 points ahead of the 75.5% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 17.7 points.
MSP to ANC struggles most at 9 PM: 69.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 9.1 points behind the 78.7% on routes of similar length at the same hour.
July is kinder to MSP to ANC than to routes of similar length: 78.2% on time against 70.3%, 7.9 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 8.5 points.
In May, MSP to ANC runs 6.7 points below routes of similar length, 71.2% on time to 77.9%.
Delta Air Lines’ flights on MSP to ANC arrive on time 78.9% of the time, 2.1 points below the 81.0% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 2.6 points.
MSP to ANC against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 88.4% | routes of similar length | 75.5% | +12.9 pts | 293 here, 45,882 there |
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 69.6% | routes of similar length | 78.7% | −9.1 pts | 247 here, 53,449 there |
| Month: July | 78.2% | routes of similar length | 70.3% | +7.9 pts | 478 here, 111,880 there |
| Month: May | 71.2% | routes of similar length | 77.9% | −6.7 pts | 177 here, 81,754 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 78.9% | routes of similar length | 81.0% | −2.1 pts | 1,934 here, 167,674 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,519 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
36 min late
against a median of 4 min early
Percentiles over 2,203 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at ANC after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 41% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 20% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.9% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 3.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.54% of the time and diverts 0.14% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,188 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 36 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,203 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → ANC flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 83.1% of the time, against 72.9% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 10.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 81.5% on time from 402 flights
- 9 AM to 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 79.1% on time from 371 flights
- 4 PM: 88.4% on time from 293 flights
- 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 72.7% on time from 370 flights
- 7 PM to 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 69.6% on time from 249 flights
- 10 PM: 78.4% on time from 325 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSP → ANC runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → ANC. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,946 | 78.9% | 0.46% | -4 min | 5.4% |
| Alaska Airlines | 257 | 82.3% | 1.17% | -7 min | 2.0% |
Delta Air Lines flew 88.3% of the 2,203 flights listed.
Alaska Airlines arrived on time 3.4 percentage points more often than Delta Air Lines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 6.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (115)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (114)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (67)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (38)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (29)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (28)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (17)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (15)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (27)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (30)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (62)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (107)
- July 2024: 72.9% from 124 flights
- August 2024: too few flights to score (112)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (68)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (36)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (29)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (28)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (19)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (14)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (27)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (30)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (59)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (103)
- July 2025: 75.8% from 124 flights
- August 2025: too few flights to score (115)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (68)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (61)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (57)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (58)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (48)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (28)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (31)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (30)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (56)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (105)
- July 2026: 74.0% from 124 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.3% against 80.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.4 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,203 MSP → ANC flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed