Route profile
ANC→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Anchorage to Minneapolis, 2,519 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 76% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,202 flights. How this is calculated
ANC → MSP arrives on time 83.6% of the time; the return trip, MSP → ANC, arrives on time 79.3% of the time, a 4.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
ANC → MSP spends 25.0 minutes on the ground on a 2,519-mile trip: 17.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at ANC and 7.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 99% of 4,467 comparable routes.
84.9% on time on the best day (Tuesday) against 81.9% on the worst (Sunday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where ANC to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
ANC to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 12 PM: 84.5% arrive on time, 7.8 points ahead of the 76.7% those routes manage at that hour.
ANC to MSP holds up on Thursdays better than routes of similar length do: 83.8% on time to their 77.1%, a 6.7 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 7 points.
July is kinder to ANC to MSP than to routes of similar length: 79.3% on time against 70.3%, 9 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.6 points.
ANC to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 12 PM departures | 84.5% | routes of similar length | 76.7% | +7.8 pts | 213 here, 39,723 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 83.8% | routes of similar length | 77.1% | +6.7 pts | 320 here, 136,421 there |
| Month: July | 79.3% | routes of similar length | 70.3% | +9.0 pts | 478 here, 111,880 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,519 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
27 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 2,202 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from ANC.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 33% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 16% | High risk |
| 60 min | 8.7% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.5% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 3.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.59% of the time and diverts 0.27% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,183 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 27 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,202 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
ANC → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 87.3% of the time, against 81.7% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 5.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 87.3% on time from 589 flights
- 7 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 84.5% on time from 215 flights
- 1 PM to 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 81.3% on time from 824 flights
- 10 PM: 81.2% on time from 347 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why ANC → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for ANC → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,946 | 82.9% | 0.62% | -7 min | 5.1% |
| Alaska Airlines | 256 | 88.6% | 0.39% | -5 min | 1.2% |
Delta Air Lines flew 88.4% of the 2,202 flights listed.
Alaska Airlines arrived on time 5.7 percentage points more often than Delta Air Lines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL377 Delta Air Lines | 9:15 PM | 602 | 80.0% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 3.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (115)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (114)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (66)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (39)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (29)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (28)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (17)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (15)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (27)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (30)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (62)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (107)
- July 2024: 72.9% from 124 flights
- August 2024: too few flights to score (111)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (68)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (37)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (29)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (28)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (19)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (14)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (27)
- April 2025: too few flights to score (30)
- May 2025: too few flights to score (58)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (103)
- July 2025: 79.7% from 124 flights
- August 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (68)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (61)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (57)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (59)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (48)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (28)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (31)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (30)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (55)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (106)
- July 2026: 78.2% from 124 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 83.7% against 83.4% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,202 ANC → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed