Route profile
LGA→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New York to Minneapolis, 1,020 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 65% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,755 flights. How this is calculated
LGA → MSP arrives on time 85.2% of the time; the return trip, MSP → LGA, arrives on time 81.5% of the time, a 3.7-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
LGA → MSP spends 29.6 minutes on the ground on a 1,020-mile trip: 22.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at LGA and 6.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where LGA to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
LGA to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 1 PM: 86.7% arrive on time, 11.3 points ahead of the 75.4% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.6 points.
LGA to MSP holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 84.6% on time to their 73.3%, a 11.3 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 9.8 points.
August is kinder to LGA to MSP than to routes of similar length: 87.2% on time against 74.2%, 13 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 10.7 points.
Republic Airways does better on LGA to MSP than on its routes of similar length: 88.8% on time here, 82.0% there, 6.8 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 6.7 points.
LGA to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 1 PM departures | 86.7% | routes of similar length | 75.4% | +11.3 pts | 285 here, 164,740 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 84.6% | routes of similar length | 73.3% | +11.3 pts | 875 here, 422,571 there |
| Month: August | 87.2% | routes of similar length | 74.2% | +13.0 pts | 570 here, 228,395 there |
| Airline: Republic Airways | 88.8% | routes of similar length | 82.0% | +6.8 pts | 1,233 here, 52,362 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,020 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why LGA → MSP flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
LGA → MSP cancelled 120 of 6,755 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 56. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 64.2% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 88 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 120 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
77 cancellations, 64.2% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
28 cancellations, 23.3% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
15 cancellations, 12.5% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
120 coded cancellations were recorded on LGA → MSP; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
30 min late
against a median of 14 min early
Percentiles over 6,755 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from LGA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 25% | High risk |
| 45 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 10.0% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.0% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.8% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.78% of the time and diverts 0.16% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,624 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 30 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,755 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
LGA → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.6% of the time, against 74.7% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 17.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 93.7% on time from 1,502 flights
- 7 AM: 91.2% on time from 1,129 flights
- 8 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 92.2% on time from 206 flights
- 11 AM: 88.2% on time from 907 flights
- 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 86.7% on time from 293 flights
- 2 PM: 77.5% on time from 696 flights
- 3 PM: 75.7% on time from 789 flights
- 4 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 75.1% on time from 1,097 flights
- 7 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why LGA → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for LGA → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 5,483 | 84.4% | 1.57% | -13 min | 6.6% |
| Republic Airways | 1,270 | 88.8% | 2.68% | -15 min | 3.6% |
Delta Air Lines flew 81.2% of the 6,753 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 2.68% of its flights here against 1.57% for Delta Air Lines.
Republic Airways arrived on time 4.4 percentage points more often than Delta Air Lines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
DL2510 (6:00 AM) arrived on time 92.0% of the time, 21.0 points more often than DL2349 (2:59 PM) at 71.0%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 5.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 86.4%
- Feb: 87.8%
- Mar: 85.7%
- Apr: 86.7%
- May: 83.0%
- Jun: 77.5%
- Jul: 77.4%
- Aug: 87.2%
- Sep: 92.1%
- Oct: 88.3%
- Nov: 88.7%
- Dec: 84.1%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 14.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 80.9% from 193 flights
- August 2023: 85.6% from 203 flights
- September 2023: 89.8% from 195 flights
- October 2023: 90.2% from 204 flights
- November 2023: 96.9% from 192 flights
- December 2023: 93.0% from 199 flights
- January 2024: 88.7% from 197 flights
- February 2024: 94.1% from 189 flights
- March 2024: 92.4% from 198 flights
- April 2024: 93.3% from 195 flights
- May 2024: 88.0% from 202 flights
- June 2024: 73.6% from 194 flights
- July 2024: 75.0% from 205 flights
- August 2024: 83.6% from 203 flights
- September 2024: 92.9% from 197 flights
- October 2024: 91.2% from 205 flights
- November 2024: 91.8% from 196 flights
- December 2024: 84.4% from 192 flights
- January 2025: 85.4% from 200 flights
- February 2025: 80.1% from 179 flights
- March 2025: 83.2% from 202 flights
- April 2025: 80.8% from 193 flights
- May 2025: 79.8% from 190 flights
- June 2025: 73.6% from 189 flights
- July 2025: 79.9% from 195 flights
- August 2025: 92.8% from 184 flights
- September 2025: 94.0% from 150 flights
- October 2025: 81.9% from 151 flights
- November 2025: 73.4% from 143 flights
- December 2025: 71.7% from 150 flights
- January 2026: 84.6% from 150 flights
- February 2026: 89.1% from 139 flights
- March 2026: 79.7% from 151 flights
- April 2026: 85.8% from 148 flights
- May 2026: 80.8% from 177 flights
- June 2026: 87.2% from 151 flights
- July 2026: 73.0% from 154 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 83.0% against 84.0% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,755 LGA → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed