Route profile
EWR→ORD
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Newark to Chicago, 719 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 8% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 18,454 flights. How this is calculated
EWR → ORD arrives on time 73.5% of the time; the return trip, ORD → EWR, arrives on time 71.7% of the time.
EWR → ORD spends 42.8 minutes on the ground on a 719-mile trip: 24.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at EWR and 18.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at ORD.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 90% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 5 min early, but the worst tenth run 71 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
Why EWR → ORD flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
EWR → ORD cancelled 531 of 18,454 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 35. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 64.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 54 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 531 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
343 cancellations, 64.6% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
109 cancellations, 20.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
79 cancellations, 14.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
531 coded cancellations were recorded on EWR → ORD; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
66 min late
against a median of 5 min early
EWR → ORD has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 5 min early, but the worst tenth are 71 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 18,454 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at ORD after arriving from EWR.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 41% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 26% | High risk |
| 60 min | 18% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.1% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.88% of the time and diverts 0.21% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 17,885 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 66 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 18,454 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
EWR → ORD flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 86.0% of the time, against 57.8% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 28.2 percentage points.
By day and hour
On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (EWR).
Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 12.3 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.6 points.
| Hour | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
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On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time
- 40–49
- 50–59
- 60–69
- 70–79
- 80–89
- 90–99
- Fewer than 120 flights, not scored
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.
No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM and after 10 PM (395 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.
View as tableHide table
| Hour | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 AM–7 AM | 87.6% on time241 flights | 92.7% on time238 flights | 91.1% on time237 flights | 89.2% on time253 flights | 81.9% on time242 flights | 83.9% on time262 flights | 83.4% on time236 flights |
| 7 AM–8 AM | 86.5% on time271 flights | 85.1% on time258 flights | 89.1% on time263 flights | 88.2% on time275 flights | 79.5% on time267 flights | 81.1% on time265 flights | 84.4% on time270 flights |
| 8 AM–9 AM | 105 flights, too few to score | 111 flights, too few to score | 106 flights, too few to score | 101 flights, too few to score | 103 flights, too few to score | 62 flights, too few to score | 117 flights, too few to score |
| 9 AM–10 AM | 89.8% on time150 flights | 84.7% on time147 flights | 86.1% on time148 flights | 84.6% on time150 flights | 78.6% on time148 flights | 82.6% on time124 flights | 79.0% on time142 flights |
| 10 AM–11 AM | 85.7% on time219 flights | 81.7% on time223 flights | 85.3% on time225 flights | 82.5% on time219 flights | 77.6% on time222 flights | 78.8% on time219 flights | 78.1% on time220 flights |
| 11 AM–12 PM | 87.0% on time189 flights | 81.3% on time192 flights | 81.3% on time194 flights | 78.9% on time191 flights | 69.3% on time190 flights | 76.0% on time149 flights | 77.8% on time186 flights |
| 12 PM–1 PM | 89 flights, too few to score | 79 flights, too few to score | 82 flights, too few to score | 88 flights, too few to score | 91 flights, too few to score | 74 flights, too few to score | 85 flights, too few to score |
| 1 PM–2 PM | 79.1% on time223 flights | 80.4% on time208 flights | 77.8% on time214 flights | 79.6% on time218 flights | 76.4% on time219 flights | 83.2% on time173 flights | 73.9% on time225 flights |
| 2 PM–3 PM | 118 flights, too few to score | 86.1% on time120 flights | 70.5% on time123 flights | 117 flights, too few to score | 68.0% on time124 flights | 96 flights, too few to score | 119 flights, too few to score |
| 3 PM–4 PM | 68.0% on time151 flights | 78.0% on time154 flights | 73.0% on time154 flights | 68.5% on time145 flights | 65.5% on time148 flights | 69.9% on time150 flights | 66.7% on time152 flights |
| 4 PM–5 PM | 87 flights, too few to score | 78 flights, too few to score | 83 flights, too few to score | 79 flights, too few to score | 80 flights, too few to score | 77 flights, too few to score | 87 flights, too few to score |
| 5 PM–6 PM | 51.2% on time221 flights | 57.7% on time214 flights | 51.0% on time220 flights | 51.4% on time218 flights | 48.8% on time221 flights | 56.5% on time204 flights | 50.8% on time220 flights |
| 6 PM–7 PM | 52.8% on time165 flights | 56.4% on time170 flights | 52.7% on time170 flights | 42.7% on time159 flights | 51.9% on time166 flights | 59.6% on time164 flights | 50.3% on time161 flights |
| 7 PM–8 PM | 62.2% on time153 flights | 67.8% on time151 flights | 61.0% on time149 flights | 52.1% on time152 flights | 56.2% on time156 flights | 104 flights, too few to score | 58.2% on time154 flights |
| 8 PM–9 PM | 100 flights, too few to score | 90 flights, too few to score | 95 flights, too few to score | 95 flights, too few to score | 94 flights, too few to score | 67 flights, too few to score | 90 flights, too few to score |
| 9 PM–10 PM | 71.2% on time169 flights | 73.6% on time146 flights | 68.0% on time157 flights | 64.0% on time167 flights | 67.3% on time169 flights | 119 flights, too few to score | 69.8% on time169 flights |
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 88.0% on time from 259 flights
- 6 AM: 87.1% on time from 1,709 flights
- 7 AM: 84.9% on time from 1,869 flights
- 8 AM: 85.7% on time from 705 flights
- 9 AM: 83.7% on time from 1,009 flights
- 10 AM: 81.4% on time from 1,547 flights
- 11 AM: 78.9% on time from 1,291 flights
- 12 PM: 79.7% on time from 588 flights
- 1 PM: 78.5% on time from 1,480 flights
- 2 PM: 70.4% on time from 817 flights
- 3 PM: 70.0% on time from 1,054 flights
- 4 PM: 48.7% on time from 571 flights
- 5 PM: 52.4% on time from 1,518 flights
- 6 PM: 52.5% on time from 1,155 flights
- 7 PM: 60.1% on time from 1,019 flights
- 8 PM: 71.0% on time from 631 flights
- 9 PM: 68.6% on time from 1,096 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why EWR → ORD runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for EWR → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on EWR → ORD, at 39.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 86.0% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 57.8%.
How this route holds up in bad weather
July 2023 – July 2026
The harder-hit end is ORD, where the flight lands. Its figure counts departures from ORD, so it says more about how that airport copes than about this route. Bad weather cancels 5.5 times the normal rate at ORD against 3.3 times at EWR. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: EWR 6.9% against 2.1%, ORD 6.5% against 1.2%. Flights that did leave ORD in bad weather arrived on time 55.7% of the time, against 77.1% in normal hours.
Bad weather and normal hours at the airports
Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026| Departures from | EWR | ORD |
|---|---|---|
| Cancelled in bad weather | 6.9% | 6.5% |
| Cancelled in normal hours | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Arrived on time, bad weather | 65.8% | 55.7% |
| Arrived on time, normal hours | 80.0% | 77.1% |
| Departures in bad weather | 51,613 | 104,455 |
Of the carriers on this route, United Airlines (5.3% cancelled against 8.9% for the other carriers at EWR) cancelled the fewest departures from EWR in bad weather and Republic Airways (11.8% cancelled against 6.1% for the other carriers at EWR) the most. One more carrier flies this route but has too few bad-weather departures from EWR to compare.
This route’s airlines in bad weather at EWR
All departures from EWR| Airline | Bad-weather departures | Cancelled | Other carriers |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 28,226 | 5.3%below the others | 8.9% |
| American Airlines | 2,735 | 7.2%about level | 7.0% |
| Spirit Airlines | 3,882 | 8.7%above the others | 6.4% |
| Republic Airways | 9,298 | 11.8%above the others | 6.1% |
These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from EWR and ORD, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from EWR on every route.
Weather source and limits. In full: EWR (airlines), ORD, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 12,988 | 74.2% | 2.18% | -4 min | 10.0% |
| American Airlines | 2,482 | 75.1% | 3.79% | -9 min | 13.0% |
| Envoy Air | 2,228 | 70.1% | 4.58% | -5 min | 12.6% |
| Spirit Airlines | 500 | 68.2% | 7.00% | -6 min | 16.3% |
| Republic Airways | 254 | 64.0% | 6.69% | 0 min | 15.7% |
United Airlines flew 70.4% of the 18,452 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 7.00% of its flights here against 2.18% for United Airlines.
American Airlines arrived on time 11.1 percentage points more often than Republic Airways on this route.
Other ways to fly New York to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGA→ORD New York to Chicago | 33,927 | 75.0% | 3.39% | -7 min | 42 |
| EWR→ORD this route Newark to Chicago | 18,454 | 73.5% | 2.88% | -5 min | 44 |
Flying to ORD from the New York area? Compare EWR, LGA, JFK for ORD, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
UA1525 (10:30 AM) arrived on time 80.9% of the time, 33.5 points more often than UA254 (6:25 PM) at 47.4%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 8.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 74.2%
- Feb: 79.2%
- Mar: 75.8%
- Apr: 74.9%
- May: 72.9%
- Jun: 71.0%
- Jul: 60.6%
- Aug: 69.8%
- Sep: 80.2%
- Oct: 77.3%
- Nov: 75.0%
- Dec: 74.6%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 19.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 48.6% from 447 flights
- August 2023: 74.0% from 459 flights
- September 2023: 80.0% from 467 flights
- October 2023: 90.0% from 499 flights
- November 2023: 90.0% from 480 flights
- December 2023: 87.6% from 443 flights
- January 2024: 71.5% from 430 flights
- February 2024: 89.2% from 415 flights
- March 2024: 84.3% from 460 flights
- April 2024: 75.5% from 474 flights
- May 2024: 71.1% from 513 flights
- June 2024: 67.2% from 495 flights
- July 2024: 61.5% from 538 flights
- August 2024: 63.3% from 546 flights
- September 2024: 80.0% from 547 flights
- October 2024: 81.1% from 588 flights
- November 2024: 71.2% from 553 flights
- December 2024: 70.3% from 545 flights
- January 2025: 77.1% from 501 flights
- February 2025: 71.5% from 471 flights
- March 2025: 77.8% from 531 flights
- April 2025: 70.8% from 501 flights
- May 2025: 66.8% from 514 flights
- June 2025: 72.7% from 473 flights
- July 2025: 63.4% from 498 flights
- August 2025: 72.8% from 493 flights
- September 2025: 80.5% from 474 flights
- October 2025: 60.2% from 502 flights
- November 2025: 64.7% from 521 flights
- December 2025: 67.9% from 511 flights
- January 2026: 73.2% from 479 flights
- February 2026: 78.2% from 439 flights
- March 2026: 65.6% from 510 flights
- April 2026: 78.1% from 532 flights
- May 2026: 79.9% from 552 flights
- June 2026: 73.0% from 528 flights
- July 2026: 67.0% from 525 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 71.7% against 72.3% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 18,454 EWR → ORD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed