DFW → MCO Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · DFWNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:53 UTC

Dallas–Fort Worth airport profile →

Destination · MCONo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:53 UTC

Orlando airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

33/ 100Weak

Better than 2% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 15,281 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

65.6%

9,743 of 14,860

Cancellation rate

2.36%

360 cancelled

Median arrival delay

1 min

Average 20.5 min

Severe delays

14.1%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

75 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

15,281

3 carriers

DFW → MCO arrives on time 65.6% of the time; the return trip, MCO → DFW, arrives on time 71.6% of the time, a 6.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

DFW → MCO spends 28.9 minutes on the ground on a 985-mile trip: 18.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DFW and 10.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at MCO.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 97% of 4,598 comparable routes.

A typical arrival is 1 min late, but the worst tenth run 81 minutes worse than that.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.

Why DFW → MCO flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

DFW → MCO cancelled 360 of 15,281 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 42. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 83.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 51 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather83.6%

Airline12.8%

Air traffic3.6%

Security0.0%

Of 360 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 51

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

301 cancellations, 83.6% of the total.

The airline1 in 332

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

46 cancellations, 12.8% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 1,175

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

13 cancellations, 3.6% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

360 coded cancellations were recorded on DFW → MCO; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

82 min late

against a median of 1 min late

Arrived an hour or more late14.1%

Typical delay when late75 min

Cancelled2.36%

Landed somewhere else0.40%

DFW → MCO has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 1 min late, but the worst tenth are 81 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 15,281 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at MCO after arriving from DFW.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, DFW → MCO arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	50%	Likely to miss
45 min	34%	Likely to miss
60 min	24%	High risk
90 min	14%	Some risk
120 min	8.8%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.36% of the time and diverts 0.40% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 14,860 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 82 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 15,281 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

DFW → MCO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 81.5% of the time, against 54.8% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 26.7 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (DFW).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 10.3 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 3.1 points.

On-time arrival rate for DFW to MCO by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

40–49
50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 7 AM and after 9 PM (1,303 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for DFW to MCO. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
7 AM–8 AM	77.8% on time189 flights	84.3% on time161 flights	78.9% on time156 flights	87.5% on time203 flights	78.4% on time197 flights	67.3% on time177 flights	75.9% on time178 flights
8 AM–9 AM	117 flights, too few to score	92 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score	108 flights, too few to score	117 flights, too few to score	111 flights, too few to score	118 flights, too few to score
9 AM–10 AM	71.9% on time137 flights	71.9% on time141 flights	74.0% on time153 flights	74.5% on time144 flights	74.0% on time156 flights	72.4% on time159 flights	66.4% on time140 flights
10 AM–11 AM	83 flights, too few to score	79 flights, too few to score	111 flights, too few to score	62 flights, too few to score	69 flights, too few to score	76 flights, too few to score	65 flights, too few to score
11 AM–12 PM	70.2% on time202 flights	79.7% on time185 flights	73.3% on time200 flights	70.9% on time201 flights	65.5% on time196 flights	63.8% on time193 flights	64.0% on time204 flights
12 PM–1 PM	71.6% on time162 flights	77.4% on time170 flights	77.7% on time169 flights	68.5% on time149 flights	71.2% on time159 flights	76.2% on time150 flights	65.3% on time147 flights
1 PM–2 PM	119 flights, too few to score	71.8% on time120 flights	114 flights, too few to score	61.6% on time131 flights	66.1% on time123 flights	115 flights, too few to score	52.7% on time136 flights
2 PM–3 PM	61.8% on time197 flights	63.6% on time159 flights	62.1% on time163 flights	55.9% on time184 flights	60.0% on time183 flights	55.7% on time173 flights	55.8% on time178 flights
3 PM–4 PM	41 flights, too few to score	74 flights, too few to score	41 flights, too few to score	28 flights, too few to score	35 flights, too few to score	62 flights, too few to score	40 flights, too few to score
4 PM–5 PM	62.7% on time164 flights	61.5% on time164 flights	61.8% on time156 flights	57.3% on time169 flights	53.2% on time161 flights	60.1% on time163 flights	51.9% on time163 flights
5 PM–6 PM	54.6% on time156 flights	55.1% on time144 flights	59.3% on time148 flights	56.5% on time179 flights	51.6% on time162 flights	48.6% on time149 flights	48.3% on time187 flights
6 PM–7 PM	54.4% on time165 flights	62.9% on time136 flights	67.4% on time146 flights	56.0% on time167 flights	56.0% on time171 flights	56.1% on time168 flights	53.5% on time191 flights
7 PM–8 PM	48.1% on time168 flights	114 flights, too few to score	105 flights, too few to score	57.7% on time142 flights	53.4% on time168 flights	53.2% on time164 flights	52.1% on time154 flights
8 PM–9 PM	53.6% on time175 flights	114 flights, too few to score	116 flights, too few to score	58.1% on time187 flights	52.7% on time152 flights	52.6% on time120 flights	50.3% on time187 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM81.5%

9 AM–12 PM70.3%

12–3 PM64.2%

3–6 PM56.5%

6–9 PM54.8%

9 PM–5 AM68.3%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why DFW → MCO runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft48.1%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline27.3%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control19.5%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather5.0%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DFW → MCO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DFW → MCO, at 48.1%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 81.5% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 54.8%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

The harder-hit end is the one the flight leaves from, where a cancellation keeps it from departing at all. Bad weather cancels 7.0 times the normal rate at DFW against 3.2 times at MCO. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: DFW 10.4% against 1.5%, MCO 4.0% against 1.3%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from DFW and MCO in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	DFW	MCO
Cancelled in bad weather	10.4%	4.0%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.5%	1.3%
Arrived on time, bad weather	56.4%	54.1%
Arrived on time, normal hours	74.4%	76.3%
Departures in bad weather	72,822	33,297

Frontier Airlines (5.9% cancelled against 10.5% for the other carriers at DFW) and Spirit Airlines (5.4% cancelled against 9.9% for the other carriers at DFW) cancelled fewer departures from DFW in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly worse.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at DFW

All departures from DFW

Cancellation rates in bad weather at DFW for the airlines that fly DFW to MCO, against the other carriers at DFW in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Frontier Airlines	2,192	5.9%below the others	10.5%
Spirit Airlines	1,826	5.4%below the others	9.9%
American Airlines	38,491	10.0%about level	10.9%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from DFW and MCO, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from DFW on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: DFW (airlines), MCO, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
American Airlines	10,897	62.5%	2.39%	4 min	15.2%
Spirit Airlines	2,183	73.1%	2.24%	-5 min	9.8%
Frontier Airlines	2,139	72.7%	2.38%	-9 min	13.1%

American Airlines flew 71.6% of the 15,219 flights listed.

Spirit Airlines arrived on time 10.6 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
AA1336 American Airlines	8:50 PM	938	55.1%
AA2186 American Airlines	6:30 PM	922	50.4%
AA2791 American Airlines	4:40 PM	768	52.9%

AA1336 (8:50 PM) arrived on time 55.1% of the time, 4.7 points more often than AA2186 (6:30 PM) at 50.4%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon65.1%

Tue70.2%

Wed69.0%

Thu67.1%

Fri64.7%

Sat63.1%

Sun60.4%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.8 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 24.7 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 63.6% against 68.1% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.5 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 15,281 DFW → MCO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

DFW airport MCO airport Return direction MCO → DFW

DFW→MCO

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why DFW → MCO flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why DFW → MCO runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at DFW

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology