MCO → DFW Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · MCONo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Orlando airport profile →

Destination · DFWNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Dallas–Fort Worth airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

43/ 100Weak

Better than 6% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 15,277 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

71.6%

10,643 of 14,863

Cancellation rate

2.32%

354 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-4 min

Average 16.2 min

Severe delays

11.8%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

83 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

15,277

3 carriers

MCO → DFW arrives on time 71.6% of the time; the return trip, DFW → MCO, arrives on time 65.6% of the time, a 6.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

MCO → DFW spends 33.0 minutes on the ground on a 985-mile trip: 17.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 15.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at DFW.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 95% of 4,598 comparable routes.

A typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth run 76 minutes worse than that.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.

Why MCO → DFW flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

MCO → DFW cancelled 354 of 15,277 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 43. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 85.3% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 51 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather85.3%

Airline11.6%

Air traffic3.1%

Security0.0%

Of 354 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 51

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

302 cancellations, 85.3% of the total.

The airline1 in 373

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

41 cancellations, 11.6% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 1,389

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

11 cancellations, 3.1% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

354 coded cancellations were recorded on MCO → DFW; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

72 min late

against a median of 4 min early

Arrived an hour or more late11.8%

Typical delay when late83 min

Cancelled2.32%

Landed somewhere else0.39%

MCO → DFW has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth are 76 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 15,277 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at DFW after arriving from MCO.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, MCO → DFW arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	43%	Likely to miss
45 min	28%	High risk
60 min	19%	High risk
90 min	12%	Some risk
120 min	7.8%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.32% of the time and diverts 0.39% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 14,863 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 72 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 15,277 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

MCO → DFW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 86.5% of the time, against 54.3% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 32.2 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (MCO).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 13.2 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.6 points.

On-time arrival rate for MCO to DFW by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

40–49
50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures after 8 PM (640 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for MCO to DFW. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM	90.3% on time179 flights	90.8% on time148 flights	89.3% on time143 flights	90.5% on time163 flights	87.6% on time174 flights	91.1% on time160 flights	87.9% on time162 flights
6 AM–7 AM	86.4% on time135 flights	111 flights, too few to score	110 flights, too few to score	88.4% on time141 flights	89.8% on time154 flights	86.3% on time135 flights	88.3% on time133 flights
7 AM–8 AM	83.1% on time181 flights	90.0% on time172 flights	89.0% on time183 flights	88.7% on time181 flights	88.0% on time179 flights	86.2% on time168 flights	87.1% on time190 flights
8 AM–9 AM	81.6% on time204 flights	80.5% on time157 flights	84.6% on time160 flights	85.6% on time184 flights	79.3% on time193 flights	81.1% on time179 flights	83.0% on time175 flights
9 AM–10 AM	83.0% on time192 flights	82.5% on time181 flights	85.0% on time183 flights	83.0% on time176 flights	84.0% on time191 flights	79.5% on time177 flights	82.2% on time195 flights
10 AM–11 AM	52 flights, too few to score	54 flights, too few to score	48 flights, too few to score	88 flights, too few to score	59 flights, too few to score	64 flights, too few to score	71 flights, too few to score
11 AM–12 PM	75.1% on time188 flights	82.1% on time183 flights	79.5% on time171 flights	81.1% on time178 flights	77.9% on time183 flights	75.8% on time168 flights	78.0% on time174 flights
12 PM–1 PM	68 flights, too few to score	64 flights, too few to score	58 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score	73 flights, too few to score	76 flights, too few to score
1 PM–2 PM	65.3% on time153 flights	73.7% on time159 flights	72.6% on time141 flights	71.0% on time153 flights	67.9% on time141 flights	68.8% on time145 flights	67.7% on time158 flights
2 PM–3 PM	85 flights, too few to score	78 flights, too few to score	78 flights, too few to score	56 flights, too few to score	90 flights, too few to score	79 flights, too few to score	70 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	105 flights, too few to score	102 flights, too few to score	71.2% on time129 flights	119 flights, too few to score	119 flights, too few to score	56.2% on time128 flights	111 flights, too few to score
4 PM–5 PM	52.5% on time206 flights	58.5% on time167 flights	63.9% on time170 flights	58.1% on time177 flights	59.3% on time210 flights	60.6% on time221 flights	44.1% on time196 flights
5 PM–6 PM	55.2% on time217 flights	63.8% on time181 flights	57.2% on time156 flights	51.0% on time208 flights	57.8% on time190 flights	52.6% on time180 flights	47.5% on time208 flights
6 PM–7 PM	73 flights, too few to score	89 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score	80 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score
7 PM–8 PM	52.9% on time138 flights	104 flights, too few to score	55.1% on time122 flights	55.6% on time161 flights	47.8% on time142 flights	112 flights, too few to score	47.3% on time175 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM86.5%

9 AM–12 PM79.8%

12–3 PM67.2%

3–6 PM57.7%

6–9 PM55.4%

9 PM–5 AM54.3%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why MCO → DFW runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft44.2%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline22.7%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control22.2%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather10.6%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.2%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → DFW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → DFW, at 44.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 86.5% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 54.3%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

The harder-hit end is DFW, where the flight lands. Its figure counts departures from DFW, so it says more about how that airport copes than about this route. Bad weather cancels 7.0 times the normal rate at DFW against 3.2 times at MCO. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: MCO 4.0% against 1.3%, DFW 10.4% against 1.5%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from MCO and DFW in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	MCO	DFW
Cancelled in bad weather	4.0%	10.4%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.3%	1.5%
Arrived on time, bad weather	54.1%	56.4%
Arrived on time, normal hours	76.3%	74.4%
Departures in bad weather	33,297	72,822

American Airlines (4.6% cancelled against 3.9% for the other carriers at MCO), Frontier Airlines (4.7% cancelled against 3.9% for the other carriers at MCO) and Spirit Airlines (5.7% cancelled against 3.9% for the other carriers at MCO) cancelled more departures from MCO in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly better.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MCO

All departures from MCO

Cancellation rates in bad weather at MCO for the airlines that fly MCO to DFW, against the other carriers at MCO in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
American Airlines	4,024	4.6%above the others	3.9%
Frontier Airlines	3,840	4.7%above the others	3.9%
Spirit Airlines	4,014	5.7%above the others	3.9%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from MCO and DFW, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from MCO on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: MCO (airlines), DFW, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
American Airlines	10,892	72.7%	2.44%	-4 min	11.7%
Spirit Airlines	2,176	65.2%	1.88%	1 min	14.0%
Frontier Airlines	2,147	72.6%	2.19%	-7 min	10.0%

American Airlines flew 71.6% of the 15,215 flights listed.

American Airlines arrived on time 7.5 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
AA2075 American Airlines	9:30 AM	782	83.7%
AA2677 American Airlines	5:30 AM	769	89.6%
AA599 American Airlines	8:00 AM	665	85.7%
F91481 Frontier Airlines	8:30 AM	647	79.0%
F91951 Frontier Airlines	6:31 PM	646	67.5%

AA2677 (5:30 AM) arrived on time 89.6% of the time, 22.1 points more often than F91951 (6:31 PM) at 67.5%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon69.5%

Tue75.4%

Wed74.7%

Thu73.4%

Fri70.8%

Sat70.3%

Sun67.9%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.5 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 20.0 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 73.6% against 74.4% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 15,277 MCO → DFW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

MCO airport DFW airport Return direction DFW → MCO

MCO→DFW

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why MCO → DFW flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why MCO → DFW runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MCO

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology