Route profile
DCA→JFK
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Washington to New York, 213 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 16% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,711 flights. How this is calculated
DCA → JFK arrives on time 78.7% of the time; the return trip, JFK → DCA, arrives on time 75.6% of the time, a 3.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
DCA → JFK spends 35.5 minutes on the ground on a 213-mile trip: 23.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DCA and 12.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at JFK.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every airline on this route performs about the same, a narrower carrier gap than 98% of 2,692 comparable routes.
JetBlue (79.2% on time) and Republic Airways (78.6%) are close together here.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where DCA to JFK differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
DCA to JFK struggles most at 2 PM: 63.3% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 12.2 points behind the 75.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.3 points.
DCA to JFK holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 77.9% on time to their 74.3%, a 3.6 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 3.1 points.
June is kinder to DCA to JFK than to routes of similar length: 78.3% on time against 73.4%, 4.9 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 5.6 points.
In December, DCA to JFK runs 4.2 points below routes of similar length, 74.6% on time to 78.8%. Against all other routes the gap is 4.2 points.
JetBlue does better on DCA to JFK than on its routes of similar length: 79.2% on time here, 73.8% there, 5.4 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 7 points.
DCA to JFK against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 63.3% | routes of similar length | 75.5% | −12.2 pts | 177 here, 38,620 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 77.9% | routes of similar length | 74.3% | +3.6 pts | 1,041 here, 92,264 there |
| Month: June | 78.3% | routes of similar length | 73.4% | +4.9 pts | 553 here, 51,031 there |
| Month: December | 74.6% | routes of similar length | 78.8% | −4.2 pts | 650 here, 50,897 there |
| Airline: JetBlue | 79.2% | routes of similar length | 73.8% | +5.4 pts | 851 here, 25,595 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 213 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why DCA → JFK flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
DCA → JFK cancelled 355 of 7,711 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 22. The reason filed most often was the air traffic system, 47.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 46 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 355 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
169 cancellations, 47.6% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
135 cancellations, 38.0% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
51 cancellations, 14.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
355 coded cancellations were recorded on DCA → JFK; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
49 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 7,711 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at JFK after arriving from DCA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 8.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.0% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 4.60% of the time and diverts 0.04% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 7,353 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 49 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,711 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
DCA → JFK flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.6% of the time, against 69.4% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 22.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 91.4% on time from 2,132 flights
- 7 AM to 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 86.0% on time from 613 flights
- 12 PM: 75.2% on time from 1,143 flights
- 1 PM: 74.0% on time from 545 flights
- 2 PM: 63.3% on time from 194 flights
- 3 PM: too few flights to score
- 4 PM: 75.3% on time from 415 flights
- 5 PM: 67.7% on time from 1,616 flights
- 6 PM: 69.7% on time from 130 flights
- 7 PM: 71.3% on time from 672 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why DCA → JFK runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DCA → JFK. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways | 6,735 | 78.6% | 4.77% | -8 min | 8.3% |
| JetBlue | 884 | 79.2% | 3.73% | -5 min | 8.0% |
Republic Airways flew 88.4% of the 7,619 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 4.77% of its flights here against 3.73% for JetBlue.
Carriers on this route performed within a couple of percentage points of each other.
Other ways to fly Washington to New York
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCA→LGA Washington to New York | 14,236 | 74.0% | 4.52% | -6 min | 40 |
| DCA→JFK this route Washington to New York | 7,711 | 78.7% | 4.60% | -8 min | 51 |
DCA → JFK is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 78.7% on time, against 74.0% for DCA → LGA.
Flying to JFK from the Washington area? Compare DCA, BWI, IAD for JFK, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
YX4551 (6:00 AM) arrived on time 80.7% of the time, 14.7 points more often than YX4781 (2:54 PM) at 66.0%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 7.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.4%
- Feb: 80.4%
- Mar: 79.7%
- Apr: 78.0%
- May: 76.9%
- Jun: 78.3%
- Jul: 70.6%
- Aug: 76.3%
- Sep: 84.4%
- Oct: 84.1%
- Nov: 79.3%
- Dec: 74.6%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 13.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 66.7% from 183 flights
- August 2023: 76.9% from 186 flights
- September 2023: 79.6% from 240 flights
- October 2023: 85.5% from 263 flights
- November 2023: 81.0% from 268 flights
- December 2023: 77.8% from 256 flights
- January 2024: 84.7% from 186 flights
- February 2024: 90.8% from 174 flights
- March 2024: 82.7% from 186 flights
- April 2024: 73.3% from 180 flights
- May 2024: 72.3% from 186 flights
- June 2024: 73.9% from 180 flights
- July 2024: 64.2% from 186 flights
- August 2024: 67.9% from 190 flights
- September 2024: 89.4% from 207 flights
- October 2024: 86.6% from 217 flights
- November 2024: 88.0% from 208 flights
- December 2024: 77.3% from 194 flights
- January 2025: 87.0% from 206 flights
- February 2025: 78.7% from 191 flights
- March 2025: 84.4% from 217 flights
- April 2025: 79.4% from 240 flights
- May 2025: 72.0% from 249 flights
- June 2025: 75.8% from 213 flights
- July 2025: 81.0% from 217 flights
- August 2025: 82.4% from 217 flights
- September 2025: 84.4% from 262 flights
- October 2025: 79.7% from 224 flights
- November 2025: 70.0% from 255 flights
- December 2025: 68.1% from 215 flights
- January 2026: 74.5% from 182 flights
- February 2026: 70.6% from 168 flights
- March 2026: 71.3% from 186 flights
- April 2026: 81.0% from 155 flights
- May 2026: 87.1% from 205 flights
- June 2026: 84.3% from 210 flights
- July 2026: 69.9% from 209 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.1% against 80.6% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.5 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,711 DCA → JFK flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed