Route profile
JFK→DCA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New York to Washington, 213 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 10% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,742 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
JFK → DCA arrives on time 75.6% of the time; the return trip, DCA → JFK, arrives on time 78.7% of the time, a 3.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
JFK → DCA spends 40.2 minutes on the ground on a 213-mile trip: 30.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at JFK and 9.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at DCA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
The airline matters unusually much on this route, a wider carrier-to-carrier gap than 91% of 2,692 comparable routes.
Republic Airways arrived on time 77.6% of the time, against 59.3% for JetBlue, flying the exact same route.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where JFK to DCA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
JFK to DCA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 80.0% arrive on time, 11.9 points ahead of the 68.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.4 points.
JFK to DCA struggles most at 6 AM: 84.4% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 7.4 points behind the 91.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.4 points.
Wednesday is the day JFK to DCA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 75.8% on time where they average 81.0%, 5.2 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 5 points.
In February, JFK to DCA runs 13.4 points below routes of similar length, 68.1% on time to 81.5%. Against all other routes the gap is 13.4 points.
JetBlue’s flights on JFK to DCA arrive on time 59.3% of the time, 15.2 points below the 74.5% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 12.9 points.
JFK to DCA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 80.0% | routes of similar length | 68.1% | +11.9 pts | 125 here, 37,284 there |
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 84.4% | routes of similar length | 91.8% | −7.4 pts | 276 here, 48,348 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 75.8% | routes of similar length | 81.0% | −5.2 pts | 1,069 here, 93,254 there |
| Month: February | 68.1% | routes of similar length | 81.5% | −13.4 pts | 501 here, 47,213 there |
| Airline: JetBlue | 59.3% | routes of similar length | 74.5% | −15.2 pts | 843 here, 25,603 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 213 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why JFK → DCA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
JFK → DCA cancelled 351 of 7,742 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 22. The reason filed most often was the air traffic system, 44.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 49 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 351 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
157 cancellations, 44.7% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
132 cancellations, 37.6% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
61 cancellations, 17.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
1 cancellation, 0.3% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
351 coded cancellations were recorded on JFK → DCA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
57 min late
against a median of 10 min early
JFK → DCA has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 10 min early, but the worst tenth are 67 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 7,742 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DCA after arriving from JFK.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 36% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 17% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.7% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 4.53% of the time and diverts 0.22% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 7,374 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 57 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,742 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
JFK → DCA flights departing 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 87.6% of the time, against 66.3% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 21.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 84.4% on time from 283 flights
- 7 AM: 86.8% on time from 321 flights
- 8 AM: 86.2% on time from 1,070 flights
- 9 AM: 87.3% on time from 643 flights
- 10 AM to 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 75.8% on time from 234 flights
- 2 PM: 72.6% on time from 852 flights
- 3 PM: 65.9% on time from 542 flights
- 4 PM: 71.1% on time from 487 flights
- 5 PM: 70.2% on time from 471 flights
- 6 PM: 80.0% on time from 126 flights
- 7 PM: 62.3% on time from 314 flights
- 8 PM: 65.2% on time from 499 flights
- 9 PM: 70.7% on time from 1,645 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why JFK → DCA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for JFK → DCA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways | 6,767 | 77.6% | 4.61% | -11 min | 8.3% |
| JetBlue | 883 | 59.3% | 4.42% | 4 min | 19.8% |
Republic Airways flew 88.5% of the 7,650 flights listed.
Republic Airways arrived on time 18.3 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Other ways to fly New York to Washington
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGA→DCA New York to Washington | 14,238 | 76.7% | 4.07% | -9 min | 49 |
| JFK→DCA this route New York to Washington | 7,742 | 75.6% | 4.53% | -10 min | 46 |
Flying to DCA from the New York area? Compare JFK, LGA, EWR for DCA, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 7.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 76.4%
- Feb: 68.1%
- Mar: 74.7%
- Apr: 74.7%
- May: 68.5%
- Jun: 70.2%
- Jul: 69.3%
- Aug: 79.4%
- Sep: 83.9%
- Oct: 83.8%
- Nov: 80.0%
- Dec: 74.1%
February is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 15.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 74.8% from 183 flights
- August 2023: 84.6% from 185 flights
- September 2023: 79.5% from 240 flights
- October 2023: 84.4% from 263 flights
- November 2023: 90.7% from 269 flights
- December 2023: 83.2% from 255 flights
- January 2024: 87.1% from 186 flights
- February 2024: 94.2% from 174 flights
- March 2024: 94.1% from 186 flights
- April 2024: 84.2% from 180 flights
- May 2024: 78.6% from 186 flights
- June 2024: 77.7% from 180 flights
- July 2024: 71.8% from 186 flights
- August 2024: 73.5% from 190 flights
- September 2024: 89.9% from 207 flights
- October 2024: 94.5% from 217 flights
- November 2024: 89.4% from 208 flights
- December 2024: 72.8% from 194 flights
- January 2025: 82.8% from 206 flights
- February 2025: 56.0% from 192 flights
- March 2025: 75.4% from 217 flights
- April 2025: 69.9% from 240 flights
- May 2025: 60.6% from 248 flights
- June 2025: 64.1% from 213 flights
- July 2025: 69.6% from 217 flights
- August 2025: 79.7% from 217 flights
- September 2025: 82.9% from 262 flights
- October 2025: 73.4% from 249 flights
- November 2025: 60.2% from 263 flights
- December 2025: 64.0% from 214 flights
- January 2026: 57.4% from 181 flights
- February 2026: 52.6% from 168 flights
- March 2026: 53.9% from 186 flights
- April 2026: 71.2% from 156 flights
- May 2026: 68.8% from 205 flights
- June 2026: 69.7% from 210 flights
- July 2026: 61.3% from 209 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 67.0% against 74.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 7.7 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,742 JFK → DCA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed