DCA → BNA Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · DCANo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:52 UTC

Washington airport profile →

Destination · BNANo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Nashville airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

59/ 100Fair

Better than 32% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 12,844 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

78.9%

9,854 of 12,492

Cancellation rate

2.51%

322 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-7 min

Average 6.2 min

Severe delays

8.1%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

70 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

12,844

5 carriers

DCA → BNA arrives on time 78.9% of the time; the return trip, BNA → DCA, arrives on time 76.7% of the time, a 2.2-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

DCA → BNA spends 28.4 minutes on the ground on a 562-mile trip: 20.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DCA and 8.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at BNA.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 98% of 5,368 comparable routes.

76.4% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 76.3% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.

Why DCA → BNA flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

DCA → BNA cancelled 322 of 12,844 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 40. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 67.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 59 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather67.7%

Airline17.7%

Air traffic14.6%

Security0.0%

Of 322 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 59

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

218 cancellations, 67.7% of the total.

The airline1 in 225

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

57 cancellations, 17.7% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 273

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

47 cancellations, 14.6% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

322 coded cancellations were recorded on DCA → BNA; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

46 min late

against a median of 7 min early

Arrived an hour or more late8.1%

Typical delay when late70 min

Cancelled2.51%

Landed somewhere else0.23%

Percentiles over 12,844 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at BNA after arriving from DCA.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, DCA → BNA arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	36%	Likely to miss
45 min	21%	High risk
60 min	14%	Some risk
90 min	7.9%	Some risk
120 min	4.9%	Low risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.51% of the time and diverts 0.23% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 12,492 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 46 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 12,844 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

DCA → BNA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.0% of the time, against 70.6% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 20.4 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (DCA).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 9.2 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.8 points.

On-time arrival rate for DCA to BNA by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

40–49
50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM and after 9 PM (360 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for DCA to BNA. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	95.0% on time185 flights	95.2% on time172 flights	96.0% on time178 flights	93.0% on time186 flights	93.5% on time187 flights	91.4% on time163 flights	95.0% on time162 flights
7 AM–8 AM	116 flights, too few to score	87.6% on time134 flights	89.5% on time127 flights	117 flights, too few to score	114 flights, too few to score	109 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score
8 AM–9 AM	16 flights, too few to score	14 flights, too few to score	15 flights, too few to score	17 flights, too few to score	17 flights, too few to score	54 flights, too few to score	21 flights, too few to score
9 AM–10 AM	40 flights, too few to score	41 flights, too few to score	42 flights, too few to score	39 flights, too few to score	40 flights, too few to score	34 flights, too few to score	64 flights, too few to score
10 AM–11 AM	86.8% on time333 flights	85.0% on time320 flights	86.8% on time321 flights	85.8% on time328 flights	81.7% on time330 flights	89.1% on time206 flights	88.9% on time273 flights
11 AM–12 PM	111 flights, too few to score	118 flights, too few to score	114 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score	110 flights, too few to score	103 flights, too few to score	119 flights, too few to score
12 PM–1 PM	13 flights, too few to score	16 flights, too few to score	16 flights, too few to score	14 flights, too few to score	13 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	45 flights, too few to score
1 PM–2 PM	79.1% on time134 flights	71.0% on time135 flights	75.8% on time135 flights	70.0% on time130 flights	65.6% on time132 flights	92 flights, too few to score	77.0% on time127 flights
2 PM–3 PM	90 flights, too few to score	81 flights, too few to score	80 flights, too few to score	88 flights, too few to score	88 flights, too few to score	94 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	78.8% on time246 flights	78.0% on time261 flights	79.2% on time263 flights	75.7% on time244 flights	73.4% on time244 flights	84.3% on time128 flights	75.0% on time225 flights
4 PM–5 PM	9 flights, too few to score	19 flights, too few to score	19 flights, too few to score	11 flights, too few to score	10 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score	15 flights, too few to score
5 PM–6 PM	60.3% on time148 flights	69.8% on time137 flights	62.0% on time132 flights	54.9% on time143 flights	58.3% on time143 flights	82 flights, too few to score	49.2% on time140 flights
6 PM–7 PM	40 flights, too few to score	50 flights, too few to score	55 flights, too few to score	42 flights, too few to score	39 flights, too few to score	52 flights, too few to score	28 flights, too few to score
7 PM–8 PM	70.1% on time196 flights	72.7% on time193 flights	68.7% on time187 flights	64.8% on time187 flights	65.7% on time203 flights	64 flights, too few to score	58.8% on time198 flights
8 PM–9 PM	74.2% on time194 flights	79.1% on time185 flights	74.6% on time190 flights	71.4% on time191 flights	71.2% on time182 flights	47 flights, too few to score	76.4% on time191 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM91.0%

9 AM–12 PM85.7%

12–3 PM74.1%

3–6 PM71.6%

6–9 PM70.6%

9 PM–5 AM81.1%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why DCA → BNA runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft51.8%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline25.3%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control18.2%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather4.5%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.2%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DCA → BNA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DCA → BNA, at 51.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 70.6%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of DCA to BNA: 4.2 times the normal rate at DCA and 4.4 times at BNA. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: DCA 9.3% against 2.2%, BNA 4.7% against 1.1%. Flights that did leave DCA in bad weather arrived on time 63.5% of the time, against 78.3% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from DCA and BNA in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	DCA	BNA
Cancelled in bad weather	9.3%	4.7%
Cancelled in normal hours	2.2%	1.1%
Arrived on time, bad weather	63.5%	66.5%
Arrived on time, normal hours	78.3%	79.0%
Departures in bad weather	41,449	20,643

Of the carriers on this route, Southwest Airlines (6.0% cancelled against 10.0% for the other carriers at DCA) cancelled the fewest departures from DCA in bad weather and PSA Airlines (14.6% cancelled against 7.4% for the other carriers at DCA) the most.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at DCA

All departures from DCA

Cancellation rates in bad weather at DCA for the airlines that fly DCA to BNA, against the other carriers at DCA in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Southwest Airlines	4,730	6.0%below the others	10.0%
American Airlines	8,236	6.4%below the others	9.5%
Envoy Air	1,297	11.4%about level	10.4%
Republic Airways	7,801	10.7%above the others	9.0%
PSA Airlines	11,172	14.6%above the others	7.4%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from DCA and BNA, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from DCA on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: DCA (airlines), BNA, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
Republic Airways	5,023	84.8%	1.55%	-11 min	5.3%
Southwest Airlines	4,595	79.8%	1.68%	-6 min	7.1%
PSA Airlines	2,403	67.7%	5.83%	-1 min	14.1%
American Airlines	575	63.7%	4.17%	-2 min	18.3%
Envoy Air	247	78.9%	1.21%	-4 min	3.7%

Republic Airways flew 39.1% of the 12,843 flights listed. PSA Airlines cancelled 5.83% of its flights here against 1.21% for Envoy Air.

Republic Airways arrived on time 21.1 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
YX4686 Republic Airways	11:34 AM	648	85.2%
YX5707 Republic Airways	9:00 PM	610	75.8%

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon79.3%

Tue80.6%

Wed80.1%

Thu76.4%

Fri75.2%

Sat84.9%

Sun77.2%

Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 9.7 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 16.2 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.4% against 76.3% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 12,844 DCA → BNA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

DCA airport BNA airport Return direction BNA → DCA

DCA→BNA

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why DCA → BNA flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why DCA → BNA runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at DCA

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology