Route profile
BNA→TPA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Nashville to Tampa, 612 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 46% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,312 flights. How this is calculated
BNA → TPA arrives on time 77.0% of the time; the return trip, TPA → BNA, arrives on time 75.6% of the time.
BNA → TPA spends 19.6 minutes on the ground on a 612-mile trip: 14.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BNA and 4.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at TPA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every airline on this route performs about the same, a narrower carrier gap than 97% of 2,692 comparable routes.
Envoy Air (77.5% on time) and Southwest Airlines (76.8%) are close together here.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where BNA to TPA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
BNA to TPA struggles most at 5 PM: 61.5% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 9 points behind the 70.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.3 points.
BNA to TPA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 9 AM: 89.0% arrive on time, 4 points ahead of the 85.0% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 4.7 points.
Sunday is the day BNA to TPA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 70.7% on time where they average 75.1%, 4.4 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 4.1 points.
In May, BNA to TPA runs 7.4 points below routes of similar length, 67.4% on time to 74.8%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.9 points.
August is kinder to BNA to TPA than to routes of similar length: 82.5% on time against 76.7%, 5.8 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6 points.
BNA to TPA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 61.5% | routes of similar length | 70.5% | −9.0 pts | 537 here, 130,500 there |
| Hour: 9 AM departures | 89.0% | routes of similar length | 85.0% | +4.0 pts | 347 here, 117,816 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 70.7% | routes of similar length | 75.1% | −4.4 pts | 1,126 here, 304,284 there |
| Month: May | 67.4% | routes of similar length | 74.8% | −7.4 pts | 626 here, 174,801 there |
| Month: August | 82.5% | routes of similar length | 76.7% | +5.8 pts | 559 here, 173,136 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 612 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why BNA → TPA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
BNA → TPA cancelled 112 of 7,312 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 65. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 79.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 82 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 112 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
89 cancellations, 79.5% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
17 cancellations, 15.2% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
6 cancellations, 5.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
112 coded cancellations were recorded on BNA → TPA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
42 min late
against a median of 4 min early
Percentiles over 7,312 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at TPA after arriving from BNA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 41% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.8% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.53% of the time and diverts 0.22% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 7,184 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 42 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,312 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BNA → TPA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.3% of the time, against 63.8% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 26.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 94.8% on time from 469 flights
- 6 AM: 91.7% on time from 718 flights
- 7 AM: 91.1% on time from 346 flights
- 8 AM: 85.1% on time from 662 flights
- 9 AM: 89.0% on time from 352 flights
- 10 AM: 84.2% on time from 233 flights
- 11 AM: 85.0% on time from 319 flights
- 12 PM: 80.9% on time from 341 flights
- 1 PM: 76.1% on time from 548 flights
- 2 PM: 67.9% on time from 344 flights
- 3 PM: 67.9% on time from 397 flights
- 4 PM: 65.9% on time from 667 flights
- 5 PM: 61.5% on time from 546 flights
- 6 PM: 62.6% on time from 471 flights
- 7 PM: 67.8% on time from 298 flights
- 8 PM: 71.7% on time from 168 flights
- 9 PM: 61.0% on time from 382 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why BNA → TPA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BNA → TPA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on BNA → TPA, at 54.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.3% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 63.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 5,060 | 76.8% | 1.26% | -4 min | 6.4% |
| Envoy Air | 2,204 | 77.5% | 2.13% | -4 min | 7.3% |
Southwest Airlines flew 69.7% of the 7,264 flights listed.
Carriers on this route performed within a couple of percentage points of each other.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| MQ3759 Envoy Air | 7:00 AM | 1,020 | 84.4% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 11.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 80.9%
- Feb: 81.7%
- Mar: 76.7%
- Apr: 82.6%
- May: 67.4%
- Jun: 70.6%
- Jul: 68.5%
- Aug: 82.5%
- Sep: 83.2%
- Oct: 81.4%
- Nov: 81.1%
- Dec: 74.6%
May is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 15.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 73.3% from 217 flights
- August 2023: 85.7% from 202 flights
- September 2023: 86.2% from 159 flights
- October 2023: 91.4% from 187 flights
- November 2023: 77.3% from 176 flights
- December 2023: 75.7% from 185 flights
- January 2024: 76.3% from 174 flights
- February 2024: 87.7% from 162 flights
- March 2024: 78.4% from 225 flights
- April 2024: 87.8% from 199 flights
- May 2024: 69.6% from 191 flights
- June 2024: 76.4% from 205 flights
- July 2024: 66.0% from 210 flights
- August 2024: 80.1% from 177 flights
- September 2024: 76.1% from 167 flights
- October 2024: 83.1% from 184 flights
- November 2024: 88.8% from 187 flights
- December 2024: 77.4% from 193 flights
- January 2025: 81.7% from 187 flights
- February 2025: 79.8% from 164 flights
- March 2025: 77.5% from 210 flights
- April 2025: 81.8% from 205 flights
- May 2025: 71.3% from 218 flights
- June 2025: 70.9% from 223 flights
- July 2025: 70.5% from 226 flights
- August 2025: 81.4% from 203 flights
- September 2025: 86.8% from 189 flights
- October 2025: 71.4% from 214 flights
- November 2025: 77.3% from 195 flights
- December 2025: 70.9% from 202 flights
- January 2026: 84.1% from 198 flights
- February 2026: 78.1% from 183 flights
- March 2026: 74.2% from 223 flights
- April 2026: 78.6% from 215 flights
- May 2026: 61.6% from 221 flights
- June 2026: 64.6% from 214 flights
- July 2026: 64.1% from 222 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.1% against 77.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.8 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,312 BNA → TPA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed