Route profile
TPA→BNA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Tampa to Nashville, 612 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 36% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,331 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
TPA → BNA arrives on time 75.6% of the time; the return trip, BNA → TPA, arrives on time 77.0% of the time.
TPA → BNA spends 21.9 minutes on the ground on a 612-mile trip: 14.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at TPA and 7.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at BNA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where TPA to BNA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
TPA to BNA struggles most at 4 PM: 61.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 9 points behind the 70.6% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.1 points.
TPA to BNA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 AM: 96.9% arrive on time, 6 points ahead of the 90.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.1 points.
Sunday is the day TPA to BNA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 70.7% on time where they average 75.1%, 4.4 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 4.1 points.
In May, TPA to BNA runs 9 points below routes of similar length, 65.8% on time to 74.8%. Against all other routes the gap is 9.5 points.
Envoy Air’s flights on TPA to BNA arrive on time 71.5% of the time, 8 points below the 79.5% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 7.7 points.
TPA to BNA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 61.6% | routes of similar length | 70.6% | −9.0 pts | 557 here, 119,009 there |
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 96.9% | routes of similar length | 90.9% | +6.0 pts | 354 here, 148,331 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 70.7% | routes of similar length | 75.1% | −4.4 pts | 1,125 here, 304,285 there |
| Month: May | 65.8% | routes of similar length | 74.8% | −9.0 pts | 623 here, 174,804 there |
| Airline: Envoy Air | 71.5% | routes of similar length | 79.5% | −8.0 pts | 2,151 here, 31,818 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 612 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why TPA → BNA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
TPA → BNA cancelled 117 of 7,331 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 63. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 79.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 79 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 117 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
93 cancellations, 79.5% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
19 cancellations, 16.2% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
5 cancellations, 4.3% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
117 coded cancellations were recorded on TPA → BNA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
47 min late
against a median of 3 min early
Percentiles over 7,331 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BNA after arriving from TPA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 43% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | High risk |
| 90 min | 7.4% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.3% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.60% of the time and diverts 0.19% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 7,200 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 47 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,331 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
TPA → BNA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.8% of the time, against 64.1% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 28.7 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 96.9% on time from 357 flights
- 7 AM: 90.0% on time from 288 flights
- 8 AM: 90.6% on time from 439 flights
- 9 AM: 88.5% on time from 349 flights
- 10 AM: 87.4% on time from 391 flights
- 11 AM: 81.9% on time from 354 flights
- 12 PM: 82.8% on time from 535 flights
- 1 PM: 71.5% on time from 259 flights
- 2 PM: 77.1% on time from 372 flights
- 3 PM: 75.7% on time from 604 flights
- 4 PM: 61.6% on time from 569 flights
- 5 PM: 67.5% on time from 592 flights
- 6 PM: 60.7% on time from 454 flights
- 7 PM: 66.2% on time from 459 flights
- 8 PM: 65.0% on time from 650 flights
- 9 PM: 68.7% on time from 465 flights
- 10 PM: 65.3% on time from 120 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why TPA → BNA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for TPA → BNA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on TPA → BNA, at 58.7%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 92.8% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 64.1%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 5,080 | 77.3% | 1.38% | -3 min | 6.4% |
| Envoy Air | 2,204 | 71.5% | 2.09% | -3 min | 10.5% |
Southwest Airlines flew 69.7% of the 7,284 flights listed.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 5.8 percentage points more often than Envoy Air on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 11.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 81.9%
- Feb: 79.3%
- Mar: 73.2%
- Apr: 81.4%
- May: 65.8%
- Jun: 69.1%
- Jul: 66.9%
- Aug: 76.0%
- Sep: 80.8%
- Oct: 82.8%
- Nov: 82.2%
- Dec: 74.8%
May is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 17.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 69.1% from 217 flights
- August 2023: 78.9% from 202 flights
- September 2023: 78.5% from 159 flights
- October 2023: 85.6% from 187 flights
- November 2023: 86.8% from 175 flights
- December 2023: 77.0% from 185 flights
- January 2024: 81.5% from 182 flights
- February 2024: 85.9% from 170 flights
- March 2024: 74.8% from 222 flights
- April 2024: 85.3% from 198 flights
- May 2024: 54.7% from 191 flights
- June 2024: 69.8% from 205 flights
- July 2024: 58.6% from 210 flights
- August 2024: 74.6% from 177 flights
- September 2024: 73.6% from 167 flights
- October 2024: 87.1% from 183 flights
- November 2024: 80.9% from 188 flights
- December 2024: 77.2% from 194 flights
- January 2025: 77.0% from 189 flights
- February 2025: 84.0% from 171 flights
- March 2025: 78.1% from 211 flights
- April 2025: 79.6% from 205 flights
- May 2025: 74.0% from 218 flights
- June 2025: 65.3% from 223 flights
- July 2025: 67.3% from 226 flights
- August 2025: 74.4% from 203 flights
- September 2025: 88.9% from 189 flights
- October 2025: 77.1% from 214 flights
- November 2025: 79.5% from 196 flights
- December 2025: 70.5% from 202 flights
- January 2026: 86.8% from 198 flights
- February 2026: 68.9% from 183 flights
- March 2026: 67.0% from 224 flights
- April 2026: 79.5% from 215 flights
- May 2026: 67.4% from 220 flights
- June 2026: 72.3% from 214 flights
- July 2026: 72.2% from 218 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.2% against 76.2% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,331 TPA → BNA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed