FlyerIntel Research
Weather Share of Delay, Winter and Summer
Weather accounts for a larger share of attributed delay minutes in winter at 39 of 62 airports.
Published October 18, 2026 · Source period July 2023 – July 2026
Summary
39 of 62 large airports put a bigger share of their delay minutes down to weather in December to February than in June to August; 23 put a bigger share down in summer. The median difference is +1.3 points. Pooled across the airports, weather is 6.6% of attributed delay minutes in winter and 5.7% in summer.
Key findings
- ANC has the largest winter lead: weather is 13.5% of its attributed delay minutes in December to February against 1.8% in June to August, 11.6 points more in winter.
- MCO has the largest summer lead: 10.5% in summer against 2.2% in winter, 8.3 points more in summer.
- The median airport’s winter share is above its summer share by 1.3 points.
- Pooled over the 62 airports, weather minutes are 6.6% of attributed delay minutes in winter and 5.7% in summer.
Which season blames the weather more
Delay minutes in the federal data come with a stated cause for every flight that arrived 15 minutes or more late. This report takes the share of those minutes the data files under weather, at each of 62 large airports, and compares December to February with June to August. It is a share of the delay that is attributed, not of all flights, so an airport with little delay in a season can show a high share on few minutes.
Largest winter lead, percentage points
Largest summer lead, percentage points
Pages for what this report covers
Methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 21,708,321 individual flight records in the US Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance dataset, covering July 2023 through July 2026. Following BTS methodology, a flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after its scheduled arrival time. Cancelled and diverted flights have no arrival time and are excluded from on-time rates rather than counted as late; cancellation rates are reported separately. Full definitions are published at /methodology/. Each calendar month is pooled across every year in the period, and a season adds its three months. The share divides weather delay minutes by the sum of the five cause columns on the same rows; months where any cause column is empty are left out. Flights are counted once, at the airport they leave. The pooled share adds minutes across the listed airports before dividing, so large airports weigh more.
Limitations
The source dataset covers scheduled domestic flights operated by carriers above the DOT reporting threshold; smaller carriers and international flights are not included. Flights sold under a mainline brand but flown by a regional carrier are attributed to the operating carrier, which is how the DOT records them. Past performance describes what has happened and is not a prediction about any individual flight.
Sources
- FlyerIntel analysis — FlyerIntel · source
- Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance — US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics · source
Full FlyerIntel methodology · Report a problem with this analysis