FlyerIntel Research
US Routes With the Highest Cancellation Rates
Where a booked flight is most likely not to operate at all.
Published August 29, 2026 · Source period July 2023 – July 2026
Summary
Across 2,272 major US routes, MYR → EWR has the highest cancellation rate at 5.89%, roughly one flight in 17. The median route cancels 1.13% of flights, and the most dependable, ABQ → OAK, cancels just 0.00%. A cancellation is the outcome no amount of schedule padding protects against, which makes this the single most consequential number on a route.
Key findings
- MYR → EWR cancelled 5.89% of 3,310 scheduled flights.
- The median major route cancels 1.13% of flights.
- Short, high-frequency routes into congested airspace dominate the top of this list.
- Cancellation rate and on-time rate measure different things: several routes appear on this list with respectable punctuality.
Highest cancellation rates
| # | Route | From | To | Cancelled | On time | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MYR → EWR | Myrtle Beach | Newark | 5.89% | 79.5% | 3,310 |
| 2 | EWR → ILM | Newark | Wilmington | 5.62% | 84.0% | 943 |
| 3 | EWR → MKE | Newark | Milwaukee | 5.26% | 84.1% | 2,586 |
| 4 | DCA → CLE | Washington | Cleveland | 5.24% | 73.9% | 4,657 |
| 5 | ILM → EWR | Wilmington | Newark | 5.19% | 84.2% | 944 |
| 6 | CLE → DCA | Cleveland | Washington | 5.17% | 73.7% | 4,659 |
| 7 | ILM → DCA | Wilmington | Washington | 5.12% | 73.3% | 2,560 |
| 8 | LGA → ILM | New York | Wilmington | 5.08% | 80.5% | 4,115 |
| 9 | EWR → MEM | Newark | Memphis | 5.03% | 77.3% | 1,412 |
| 10 | MKE → EWR | Milwaukee | Newark | 4.95% | 82.0% | 2,585 |
| 11 | EWR → PIT | Newark | Pittsburgh | 4.87% | 83.2% | 6,699 |
| 12 | BUF → DCA | Buffalo | Washington | 4.83% | 73.3% | 3,601 |
| 13 | BUF → EWR | Buffalo | Newark | 4.70% | 87.8% | 2,041 |
| 14 | PHL → BUF | Philadelphia | Buffalo | 4.67% | 75.5% | 920 |
| 15 | DCA → BUF | Washington | Buffalo | 4.67% | 72.1% | 3,601 |
| 16 | ILM → LGA | Wilmington | New York | 4.66% | 82.1% | 4,117 |
| 17 | LGA → BUF | New York | Buffalo | 4.65% | 81.2% | 5,852 |
| 18 | DCA → ILM | Washington | Wilmington | 4.61% | 75.9% | 2,561 |
| 19 | EWR → BUF | Newark | Buffalo | 4.61% | 79.0% | 2,041 |
| 20 | DCA → JFK | Washington | New York | 4.60% | 78.7% | 7,711 |
| 21 | JFK → DCA | New York | Washington | 4.53% | 75.6% | 7,742 |
| 22 | DCA → LGA | Washington | New York | 4.52% | 74.0% | 14,236 |
| 23 | IAD → LGA | Washington | New York | 4.51% | 75.9% | 2,792 |
| 24 | MYR → DCA | Myrtle Beach | Washington | 4.51% | 72.0% | 1,950 |
| 25 | EWR → DCA | Newark | Washington | 4.49% | 78.4% | 890 |
Lowest cancellation rates
| # | Route | From | To | Cancelled | On time | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABQ → OAK | Albuquerque | Oakland | 0.00% | 91.5% | 1,090 |
| 2 | SJC → BNA | San Jose | Nashville | 0.00% | 87.0% | 807 |
| 3 | AUS → OAK | Austin | Oakland | 0.00% | 68.9% | 1,096 |
| 4 | SLC → TUS | Salt Lake City | Tucson | 0.06% | 91.4% | 3,389 |
| 5 | PHX → HNL | Phoenix | Honolulu | 0.07% | 82.1% | 4,133 |
| 6 | MCI → IND | Kansas City | Indianapolis | 0.08% | 79.9% | 1,226 |
| 7 | TUS → SLC | Tucson | Salt Lake City | 0.09% | 94.1% | 3,389 |
| 8 | OAK → AUS | Oakland | Austin | 0.09% | 83.6% | 1,122 |
| 9 | STL → SMF | St. Louis | Sacramento | 0.09% | 72.6% | 1,061 |
| 10 | SMF → AUS | Sacramento | Austin | 0.11% | 81.2% | 1,742 |
| 11 | SFO → ANC | San Francisco | Anchorage | 0.12% | 80.2% | 860 |
| 12 | OAK → SLC | Oakland | Salt Lake City | 0.12% | 88.8% | 5,777 |
| 13 | LAX → ABQ | Los Angeles | Albuquerque | 0.13% | 86.3% | 6,992 |
| 14 | SLC → OAK | Salt Lake City | Oakland | 0.14% | 88.3% | 5,775 |
| 15 | AUS → BUR | Austin | Burbank | 0.17% | 72.8% | 1,191 |
| 16 | BUR → AUS | Burbank | Austin | 0.17% | 86.3% | 1,191 |
| 17 | CMH → AUS | Columbus | Austin | 0.17% | 82.1% | 1,162 |
| 18 | ATL → HNL | Atlanta | Honolulu | 0.17% | 80.5% | 1,145 |
| 19 | SLC → ABQ | Salt Lake City | Albuquerque | 0.17% | 90.2% | 3,430 |
| 20 | HNL → LAS | Honolulu | Las Vegas | 0.18% | 84.1% | 5,691 |
| 21 | SJC → MDW | San Jose | Chicago | 0.18% | 85.8% | 1,703 |
| 22 | SJC → AUS | San Jose | Austin | 0.18% | 79.8% | 3,935 |
| 23 | SLC → OMA | Salt Lake City | Omaha | 0.18% | 89.2% | 2,220 |
| 24 | OAK → ABQ | Oakland | Albuquerque | 0.18% | 75.7% | 1,090 |
| 25 | SMF → STL | Sacramento | St. Louis | 0.19% | 85.0% | 1,066 |
Why these routes and not others
Cancellations concentrate where three conditions meet: high frequency, short stage length, and congested or weather-exposed airspace at one end. When a carrier operates the same city pair a dozen times a day on small aircraft, cancelling one rotation is operationally cheap: passengers can be rolled onto the next departure a couple of hours later. On a route flown twice a day with a widebody, that option does not exist, and the airline flies the schedule and absorbs the delay instead. The tables above are as much a map of network design as of reliability.
Pages for what this report covers
Airports: Myrtle Beach (MYR) · Newark (EWR) · Albuquerque (ABQ) · Oakland (OAK) · Wilmington (ILM) · Milwaukee (MKE) · Washington (DCA) · Cleveland (CLE) · New York (LGA) · Memphis (MEM)
Routes: DCA → LGA
Methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 21,708,321 individual flight records in the US Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance dataset, covering July 2023 through July 2026. Following BTS methodology, a flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after its scheduled arrival time. Cancelled and diverted flights have no arrival time and are excluded from on-time rates rather than counted as late; cancellation rates are reported separately. Full definitions are published at /methodology/. Routes are directional and include only city pairs between airports FlyerIntel covers with at least 750 flights in the period.
Limitations
The source dataset covers scheduled domestic flights operated by carriers above the DOT reporting threshold; smaller carriers and international flights are not included. Flights sold under a mainline brand but flown by a regional carrier are attributed to the operating carrier, which is how the DOT records them. Past performance describes what has happened and is not a prediction about any individual flight.
Sources
- FlyerIntel analysis — FlyerIntel · source
- Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance — US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics · source
Full FlyerIntel methodology · Report a problem with this analysis