FlyerIntel Research

The US Routes With the Highest Cancellation Rates

Where a booked flight is most likely not to operate at all.

Published August 29, 2026 · Source period July 2023 – June 2026

Summary

Across 1,092 major US routes, EWR → DCA has the highest cancellation rate at 4.49% — roughly one flight in 22. The median route cancels 1.15% of flights, and the most dependable, AUS → OAK, cancels just 0.00%. A cancellation is the outcome no amount of schedule padding protects against, which makes this the single most consequential number on a route.

Key findings

EWR → DCA cancelled 4.49% of 890 scheduled flights.
The median major route cancels 1.15% of flights.
Short, high-frequency routes into congested airspace dominate the top of this list.
Cancellation rate and on-time rate measure different things: several routes appear on this list with respectable punctuality.

Highest cancellation rates

#	Route	From	To	Cancelled	On time	Flights
1	EWR → DCA	Newark	Washington	4.49%	78.4%	890
2	IAD → LGA	Washington	New York	4.32%	76.0%	2,730
3	DCA → JFK	Washington	New York	4.31%	78.9%	7,502
4	LGA → IAD	New York	Washington	4.29%	80.1%	2,729
5	DCA → LGA	Washington	New York	4.19%	74.3%	13,818
6	JFK → DCA	New York	Washington	4.18%	75.9%	7,533
7	DCA → EWR	Washington	Newark	3.83%	89.7%	888
8	LGA → DCA	New York	Washington	3.81%	77.1%	13,820
9	RDU → LGA	Raleigh–Durham	New York	3.78%	75.2%	10,100
10	BOS → LGA	Boston	New York	3.77%	81.4%	22,272
11	BOS → EWR	Boston	Newark	3.74%	77.6%	11,901
12	JFK → RDU	New York	Raleigh–Durham	3.72%	78.7%	9,663
13	LGA → RDU	New York	Raleigh–Durham	3.65%	79.2%	10,104
14	STL → EWR	St. Louis	Newark	3.63%	81.1%	3,004
15	EWR → STL	Newark	St. Louis	3.62%	82.4%	3,011
16	LGA → BOS	New York	Boston	3.47%	79.0%	22,279
17	EWR → BOS	Newark	Boston	3.46%	74.4%	11,899
18	EWR → DTW	Newark	Detroit	3.43%	79.7%	10,084
19	RDU → EWR	Raleigh–Durham	Newark	3.40%	76.1%	6,863
20	RDU → JFK	Raleigh–Durham	New York	3.36%	77.8%	9,666
21	LGA → MDW	New York	Chicago	3.28%	76.8%	7,282
22	DTW → EWR	Detroit	Newark	3.28%	78.7%	10,067
23	LGA → BNA	New York	Nashville	3.25%	78.8%	12,468
24	CLT → EWR	Charlotte	Newark	3.21%	71.4%	11,364
25	BOS → JFK	Boston	New York	3.21%	77.3%	16,853

Lowest cancellation rates

#	Route	From	To	Cancelled	On time	Flights
1	AUS → OAK	Austin	Oakland	0.00%	69.8%	1,065
2	SJC → BNA	San Jose	Nashville	0.00%	87.3%	776
3	OAK → AUS	Oakland	Austin	0.09%	84.1%	1,091
4	OAK → SLC	Oakland	Salt Lake City	0.12%	89.0%	5,654
5	SLC → OAK	Salt Lake City	Oakland	0.14%	88.3%	5,652
6	SJC → AUS	San Jose	Austin	0.18%	80.0%	3,846
7	SJC → MDW	San Jose	Chicago	0.18%	86.0%	1,642
8	OAK → PHX	Oakland	Phoenix	0.21%	80.7%	6,067
9	AUS → SJC	Austin	San Jose	0.23%	76.7%	3,853
10	AUS → STL	Austin	St. Louis	0.25%	81.5%	2,837
11	PHX → OAK	Phoenix	Oakland	0.25%	77.7%	6,079
12	PDX → BNA	Portland	Nashville	0.25%	84.7%	800
13	BNA → SJC	Nashville	San Jose	0.25%	67.9%	788
14	DTW → SLC	Detroit	Salt Lake City	0.26%	83.9%	4,622
15	SLC → DTW	Salt Lake City	Detroit	0.26%	87.4%	4,612
16	SJC → PDX	San Jose	Portland	0.27%	85.7%	6,281
17	SEA → MDW	Seattle	Chicago	0.28%	79.8%	1,765
18	MSP → SLC	Minneapolis	Salt Lake City	0.29%	87.1%	4,791
19	SLC → MSP	Salt Lake City	Minneapolis	0.29%	86.8%	4,782
20	LAX → SLC	Los Angeles	Salt Lake City	0.30%	88.3%	12,950
21	RDU → SFO	Raleigh–Durham	San Francisco	0.31%	81.2%	2,288
22	PHX → SJC	Phoenix	San Jose	0.31%	81.4%	9,313
23	OAK → PDX	Oakland	Portland	0.32%	82.8%	5,053
24	STL → SAN	St. Louis	San Diego	0.32%	75.3%	1,568
25	LAX → SJC	Los Angeles	San Jose	0.32%	86.5%	15,186

Why these routes and not others

Cancellations concentrate where three conditions meet: high frequency, short stage length, and congested or weather-exposed airspace at one end. When a carrier operates the same city pair a dozen times a day on small aircraft, cancelling one rotation is operationally cheap — passengers can be rolled onto the next departure a couple of hours later. On a route flown twice a day with a widebody, that option does not exist, and the airline flies the schedule and absorbs the delay instead. The list below is as much a map of network design as it is of reliability.

Methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 21,076,354 individual flight records in the US Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance dataset, covering July 2023 through June 2026. Following BTS methodology, a flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after its scheduled arrival time. Cancelled and diverted flights have no arrival time and are excluded from on-time rates rather than counted as late; cancellation rates are reported separately. Full definitions are published at /methodology/. Routes are directional and include only city pairs between airports FlyerIntel covers with at least 750 flights in the period.

Limitations

The source dataset covers scheduled domestic flights operated by carriers above the DOT reporting threshold; smaller carriers and international flights are not included. Flights sold under a mainline brand but flown by a regional carrier are attributed to the operating carrier, which is how the DOT records them. Past performance describes what has happened and is not a prediction about any individual flight.

Sources

FlyerIntel analysis — FlyerIntel · source
Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance — US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics · source

Full FlyerIntel methodology · Report a problem with this analysis

The US Routes With the Highest Cancellation Rates

Summary

Key findings

Highest cancellation rates

Lowest cancellation rates

Why these routes and not others

Methodology

Limitations

Sources

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