Flight profile · Alaska Airlines
AS410
Seattle (SEA) to Chicago (ORD) · scheduled 12:12 PM – 6:26 PM
How AS410 performs
900 operations, July 2023 – July 2026.
AS410 arrived on time 60.5% of the time, against 77.3% for all SEA → ORD flights, so this departure is 16.8 percentage points worse than the route as a whole. Against Alaska Airlines’ own flights on this route it is 13.6 points worse.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · 900 operations, July 2023 – July 2026 · If AS410 is cancelled or significantly changed, DOT’s automatic refund rule may entitle you to your money back. The refund checker walks through eligibility.
What stands out
How AS410 compares to other flight numbers, not just to itself.
This flight runs unusually far behind the SEA → ORD route as a whole, worse than 94% of 11,788 comparable flight numbers.
60.5% on time for this specific departure, against 77.3% for every SEA → ORD flight.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · The one thing about this specific departure that ranks most extreme against every other published flight number, out of everything FlyerIntel checks — shown only when something clears a real statistical bar, not for every flight.
Where AS410 is right now
A live reading, only if you ask for it. It is not part of the reliability record above.
Ask for the position of AS410 right now, if receivers on the ground are hearing it. Nothing is requested until you press the button.
Against the rest of the route
| Flight or route | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS410 | 60.5% | 0.44% | 7 min | 9.5% | 900 |
| Alaska Airlines on SEA → ORD | 74.1% | 0.77% | -2 min | 5.8% | 5,678 |
| All SEA → ORD flights | 77.3% | 0.95% | -5 min | 6.8% | 16,300 |
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026
Why AS410 runs late
Where US DOT attributed the delay minutes on this flight.
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for AS410 on SEA → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
Does a late aircraft delay this flight?
How often the plane that flies AS410 comes in late, and what that does to the departure.
When the aircraft came in 15 or more minutes late, AS410 pushed back an average of 29 minutes late; when it came in on time or early, an average of 8 minutes late.
Each departure is matched to the flight the same aircraft flew into SEA just before it, using the tail number in the DOT file, 822 of 896 departures in all. A departure is left out when that flight is unknown, was cancelled or diverted, or the aircraft had sat for more than 12 hours. A flight the airline cancelled never left and is not in the count, and one flown by a substitute aircraft is matched to the aircraft that flew it, not to the one first planned.
Against the network at the same turn length
| Share of departures | Inbound landed 15+ late | Left 15+ late after a late inbound | Left 15+ late after an on-time inbound |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS410 | 20% | 56% | 20% |
| Network, same turn | 17% | 68% | 9% |
The schedule leaves a normal turn: enough time to clean and board if the aircraft is on time, little to spare if it is not.
The network row is every flight with a scheduled turn of 60 to 89 minutes. How often AS410’s aircraft landed 15 or more minutes late is higher than the network’s and, once the aircraft was late, how often AS410 left 15 or more minutes late is lower than the network’s.
More: Which Flight Numbers Pay for a Late Aircraft lists the flight numbers that pass a late aircraft on.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
From pushback to gate
When it leaves SEA late, does that still matter by the time it reaches ORD?
On arrival at ORD, AS410 spends 22.2 min taxiing from touchdown to the gate — ground time a connecting passenger sits through before they can even leave the aircraft, on top of however late the flight itself ran. That is 4.3 minutes longer than a typical ORD arrival (17.8 min).
Departure delay is averaged over every pushback and arrival delay over every completed arrival, so the two counts differ by the flights that never reached ORD. Taxi-out is gate to wheels up and sits inside the scheduled block rather than on top of it; the comparison is 24,242 departures from SEA scheduled in the clock hour AS410 most often leaves in. Taxi-in is landing to gate, compared against every arrival FlyerIntel has on file at ORD (952,666 flights), not just AS410’s own. More on taxi time.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026
The hour it leaves SEA
Part of any flight’s record belongs to the clock rather than to the flight. AS410 has one departure time, so this is what that time is worth.
On-time arrival rate. 24,242 departures from SEA are scheduled in the 12 PM–1 PM hour over the period, against 510,205 across the whole day.
AS410 is scheduled out of SEA at 12:12 PM, in the 12 PM–1 PM bank. Departures from SEA in that hour arrive on time 78.0% of the time against 79.1% across the airport’s whole day, so the hour AS410 leaves in is an ordinary one for SEA and explains nothing about its record either way.
The two airport figures cover every departure from SEA to every destination, so they describe the slot rather than this journey — the like-for-like comparison against the route is above. Hours are scheduled local, and a number whose schedule moved between banks inside the period has no single hour and is not described here at all. Why the hour matters.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Hours below 120 departures are not scored.
Other routes AS410 has flown
A flight number is a slot in a schedule, and carriers reassign it. These are the other city pairs this number served in the analysis period.
| Route | Operated | Flights | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA→SFO Seattle to San Francisco | January 10, 2026 – February 7, 2026 | 5 | — |
| PIT→SEA Pittsburgh to Seattle | March 9, 2025 | 1 | — |
| SEA→PIT Seattle to Pittsburgh | March 9, 2025 | 1 | — |
Because the same number has served different journeys, the statistics above describe only the route AS410 currently operates. Blending them would produce an average of two different flights.
When it goes wrong
The average describes a usual day. This is the day that ruins a connection.
57 min late
against a median of 7 min late
Percentiles over 900 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
Other flights on this route
Same airports, same journey, different odds of arriving on time.
| Flight | Airline | On time | Median arrival | Operations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UA747 | United Airlines | 84.7% | 11 min early | 1,124 |
| DL2055 | Delta Air Lines | 84.1% | 7 min early | 712 |
| AS538 | Alaska Airlines | 80.2% | 3 min early | 1,077 |
| AS328 | Alaska Airlines | 78.2% | 5 min early | 838 |
| DL2108 | Delta Air Lines | 77.0% | 5 min early | 743 |
| AS410 this flight | Alaska Airlines | 60.5% | 7 min late | 900 |
Every departure listed carries at least 600 operations, so the comparison is between figures that mean something. AS410 is placed in the same ordering rather than left out of it; the rows around it are the most punctual departures on the route, not all of them, so this is a comparison and not a rank. Schedules change; confirm the departure still operates before booking around this.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 900 records of AS410 operating SEA → ORD, published by the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics. A flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after schedule. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and reported separately. Flight numbers are resolved as carrier plus number plus route, because the same number serves different routes over time.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: Most and Least Reliable Flight Numbers · The Delay You Inherit · Making Up Time in the Air
Analysis last recomputed