Route profile
TPA→ORD
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Tampa to Chicago, 1,012 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 31% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,769 flights. How this is calculated
TPA → ORD arrives on time 77.4% of the time; the return trip, ORD → TPA, arrives on time 75.7% of the time.
TPA → ORD spends 34.5 minutes on the ground on a 1,012-mile trip: 17.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at TPA and 17.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at ORD.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where TPA to ORD differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
TPA to ORD struggles most at 6 PM: 58.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 9.3 points behind the 67.3% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.6 points.
TPA to ORD is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 AM: 91.7% arrive on time, 5.7 points ahead of the 86.0% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.8 points.
September is kinder to TPA to ORD than to routes of similar length: 87.9% on time against 81.6%, 6.3 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 5.5 points.
In March, TPA to ORD runs 3.7 points below routes of similar length, 72.0% on time to 75.7%. Against all other routes the gap is 5.9 points.
Spirit Airlines does better on TPA to ORD than on its routes of similar length: 77.6% on time here, 73.9% there, 3.7 points apart.
TPA to ORD against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 58.0% | routes of similar length | 67.3% | −9.3 pts | 491 here, 187,627 there |
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 91.7% | routes of similar length | 86.0% | +5.7 pts | 301 here, 198,736 there |
| Month: September | 87.9% | routes of similar length | 81.6% | +6.3 pts | 614 here, 223,699 there |
| Month: March | 72.0% | routes of similar length | 75.7% | −3.7 pts | 981 here, 259,076 there |
| Airline: Spirit Airlines | 77.6% | routes of similar length | 73.9% | +3.7 pts | 1,279 here, 174,169 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,012 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why TPA → ORD flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
TPA → ORD cancelled 159 of 9,769 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 61. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 60.4% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 102 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 159 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
96 cancellations, 60.4% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
36 cancellations, 22.6% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
27 cancellations, 17.0% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
159 coded cancellations were recorded on TPA → ORD; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
51 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 9,769 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at ORD after arriving from TPA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 38% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | High risk |
| 90 min | 8.7% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.0% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.63% of the time and diverts 0.48% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 9,563 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 51 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,769 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
TPA → ORD flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.2% of the time, against 61.0% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 29.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 90.8% on time from 721 flights
- 7 AM: 89.5% on time from 1,501 flights
- 8 AM: 91.7% on time from 301 flights
- 9 AM: 81.9% on time from 392 flights
- 10 AM: 85.7% on time from 259 flights
- 11 AM: 80.5% on time from 442 flights
- 12 PM: 82.6% on time from 1,639 flights
- 1 PM: 76.6% on time from 746 flights
- 2 PM: 72.4% on time from 632 flights
- 3 PM: 73.5% on time from 211 flights
- 4 PM: 63.1% on time from 1,228 flights
- 5 PM: 61.5% on time from 603 flights
- 6 PM: 58.0% on time from 503 flights
- 7 PM: 61.5% on time from 280 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why TPA → ORD runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for TPA → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on TPA → ORD, at 38.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.2% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 61.0%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 4,298 | 79.8% | 1.19% | -6 min | 7.0% |
| American Airlines | 3,213 | 75.3% | 1.87% | -7 min | 10.8% |
| Spirit Airlines | 1,310 | 77.6% | 2.14% | -7 min | 8.5% |
| Southwest Airlines | 620 | 77.8% | 1.61% | -3 min | 5.8% |
| Frontier Airlines | 325 | 63.3% | 3.08% | -1 min | 18.8% |
United Airlines flew 44.0% of the 9,766 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 3.08% of its flights here against 1.19% for United Airlines.
United Airlines arrived on time 16.5 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA354 American Airlines | 7:00 AM | 624 | 91.7% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.4%
- Feb: 80.2%
- Mar: 72.0%
- Apr: 78.7%
- May: 71.5%
- Jun: 70.7%
- Jul: 66.4%
- Aug: 74.4%
- Sep: 87.9%
- Oct: 86.7%
- Nov: 85.4%
- Dec: 80.5%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 21.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 60.2% from 220 flights
- August 2023: 75.6% from 221 flights
- September 2023: 84.2% from 229 flights
- October 2023: 88.2% from 279 flights
- November 2023: 93.4% from 271 flights
- December 2023: 91.9% from 309 flights
- January 2024: 83.4% from 308 flights
- February 2024: 86.6% from 292 flights
- March 2024: 75.3% from 334 flights
- April 2024: 84.7% from 301 flights
- May 2024: 67.2% from 269 flights
- June 2024: 76.4% from 224 flights
- July 2024: 66.1% from 228 flights
- August 2024: 70.0% from 225 flights
- September 2024: 91.2% from 193 flights
- October 2024: 89.5% from 225 flights
- November 2024: 88.8% from 232 flights
- December 2024: 79.3% from 290 flights
- January 2025: 81.0% from 279 flights
- February 2025: 83.5% from 256 flights
- March 2025: 77.6% from 335 flights
- April 2025: 75.9% from 300 flights
- May 2025: 76.1% from 265 flights
- June 2025: 63.6% from 255 flights
- July 2025: 64.3% from 229 flights
- August 2025: 77.6% from 225 flights
- September 2025: 89.2% from 205 flights
- October 2025: 82.6% from 236 flights
- November 2025: 74.5% from 281 flights
- December 2025: 70.7% from 335 flights
- January 2026: 67.7% from 300 flights
- February 2026: 70.9% from 285 flights
- March 2026: 62.8% from 341 flights
- April 2026: 75.6% from 315 flights
- May 2026: 71.3% from 250 flights
- June 2026: 73.3% from 212 flights
- July 2026: 75.5% from 215 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 73.5% against 78.1% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.6 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,769 TPA → ORD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed