Route profile
ORD→TPA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Tampa, 1,012 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 31% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,751 flights. How this is calculated
ORD → TPA arrives on time 75.7% of the time; the return trip, TPA → ORD, arrives on time 77.4% of the time.
ORD → TPA spends 30.3 minutes on the ground on a 1,012-mile trip: 23.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at ORD and 6.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at TPA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where ORD to TPA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
ORD to TPA struggles most at 8 AM: 79.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 7.1 points behind the 86.1% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.9 points.
Saturday is the day ORD to TPA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 73.9% on time where they average 77.4%, 3.5 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 5.2 points.
ORD to TPA holds up on Thursdays better than routes of similar length do: 78.5% on time to their 75.8%, a 2.7 points lead.
In December, ORD to TPA runs 5.6 points below routes of similar length, 71.9% on time to 77.5%. Against all other routes the gap is 6.9 points.
ORD to TPA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 79.0% | routes of similar length | 86.1% | −7.1 pts | 767 here, 198,270 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 73.9% | routes of similar length | 77.4% | −3.5 pts | 1,414 here, 392,686 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 78.5% | routes of similar length | 75.8% | +2.7 pts | 1,435 here, 435,893 there |
| Month: December | 71.9% | routes of similar length | 77.5% | −5.6 pts | 933 here, 247,098 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,012 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why ORD → TPA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
ORD → TPA cancelled 150 of 9,751 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 65. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 64.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 102 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 150 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
96 cancellations, 64.0% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
33 cancellations, 22.0% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
21 cancellations, 14.0% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
150 coded cancellations were recorded on ORD → TPA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
53 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 9,751 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at TPA after arriving from ORD.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 8.8% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.4% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.54% of the time and diverts 0.29% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 9,573 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 53 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,751 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
ORD → TPA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 84.4% of the time, against 66.9% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 17.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 87.4% on time from 361 flights
- 7 AM: 86.8% on time from 1,282 flights
- 8 AM: 79.0% on time from 789 flights
- 9 AM: 78.3% on time from 485 flights
- 10 AM: 80.7% on time from 507 flights
- 11 AM: 82.7% on time from 1,054 flights
- 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 71.5% on time from 915 flights
- 2 PM: 71.1% on time from 1,101 flights
- 3 PM: 73.5% on time from 412 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 69.2% on time from 472 flights
- 6 PM: 68.4% on time from 1,586 flights
- 7 PM: 67.1% on time from 416 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why ORD → TPA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for ORD → TPA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on ORD → TPA, at 43.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 84.4% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 66.9%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 4,299 | 80.8% | 1.05% | -8 min | 6.7% |
| American Airlines | 3,214 | 72.5% | 1.65% | -4 min | 10.2% |
| Spirit Airlines | 1,306 | 72.0% | 2.22% | -5 min | 11.0% |
| Southwest Airlines | 604 | 68.4% | 2.15% | 2 min | 9.3% |
| Frontier Airlines | 325 | 67.8% | 3.08% | -2 min | 17.2% |
United Airlines flew 44.1% of the 9,748 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 3.08% of its flights here against 1.05% for United Airlines.
United Airlines arrived on time 13.0 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 73.4%
- Feb: 82.6%
- Mar: 70.4%
- Apr: 78.8%
- May: 73.3%
- Jun: 72.8%
- Jul: 67.9%
- Aug: 71.7%
- Sep: 82.6%
- Oct: 81.8%
- Nov: 84.9%
- Dec: 71.9%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 17.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 58.3% from 220 flights
- August 2023: 71.2% from 221 flights
- September 2023: 79.6% from 228 flights
- October 2023: 80.9% from 279 flights
- November 2023: 88.1% from 270 flights
- December 2023: 72.9% from 311 flights
- January 2024: 66.0% from 307 flights
- February 2024: 89.4% from 292 flights
- March 2024: 69.9% from 336 flights
- April 2024: 82.1% from 294 flights
- May 2024: 67.2% from 259 flights
- June 2024: 69.5% from 224 flights
- July 2024: 68.8% from 228 flights
- August 2024: 67.6% from 224 flights
- September 2024: 86.9% from 192 flights
- October 2024: 86.1% from 226 flights
- November 2024: 86.6% from 231 flights
- December 2024: 78.8% from 292 flights
- January 2025: 79.3% from 277 flights
- February 2025: 80.2% from 255 flights
- March 2025: 78.5% from 335 flights
- April 2025: 82.7% from 299 flights
- May 2025: 81.1% from 265 flights
- June 2025: 77.5% from 254 flights
- July 2025: 69.7% from 229 flights
- August 2025: 76.0% from 225 flights
- September 2025: 82.0% from 205 flights
- October 2025: 79.2% from 236 flights
- November 2025: 80.3% from 280 flights
- December 2025: 65.0% from 337 flights
- January 2026: 75.4% from 300 flights
- February 2026: 77.8% from 286 flights
- March 2026: 62.8% from 341 flights
- April 2026: 72.2% from 316 flights
- May 2026: 71.3% from 250 flights
- June 2026: 70.7% from 212 flights
- July 2026: 75.0% from 215 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 73.4% against 79.5% in the 12 months before — declining by 6.1 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,751 ORD → TPA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed