Route profile
TPA→IAD
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Tampa to Washington, 811 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 57% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,940 flights. How this is calculated
TPA → IAD arrives on time 82.4% of the time; the return trip, IAD → TPA, arrives on time 80.7% of the time.
TPA → IAD spends 24.9 minutes on the ground on an 811-mile trip: 17.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at TPA and 7.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at IAD.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where TPA to IAD differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
TPA to IAD is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 81.0% arrive on time, 13.6 points ahead of the 67.4% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.2 points.
TPA to IAD holds up on Thursdays better than routes of similar length do: 82.8% on time to their 76.8%, a 6 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 6 points.
April is kinder to TPA to IAD than to routes of similar length: 89.6% on time against 80.1%, 9.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.7 points.
United Airlines does better on TPA to IAD than on its routes of similar length: 83.1% on time here, 79.5% there, 3.6 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 3.2 points.
TPA to IAD against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 81.0% | routes of similar length | 67.4% | +13.6 pts | 458 here, 131,870 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 82.8% | routes of similar length | 76.8% | +6.0 pts | 577 here, 336,693 there |
| Month: April | 89.6% | routes of similar length | 80.1% | +9.5 pts | 337 here, 185,984 there |
| Airline: United Airlines | 83.1% | routes of similar length | 79.5% | +3.6 pts | 3,540 here, 380,067 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 811 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why TPA → IAD flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
TPA → IAD cancelled 59 of 3,940 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 67. The reason filed most often was the air traffic system, 35.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 188 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 59 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
21 cancellations, 35.6% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
20 cancellations, 33.9% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
18 cancellations, 30.5% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
59 coded cancellations were recorded on TPA → IAD; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
39 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 3,940 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at IAD after arriving from TPA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 28% | High risk |
| 45 min | 17% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.50% of the time and diverts 0.08% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,878 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 39 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,940 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
TPA → IAD flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.4% of the time, against 74.5% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 17.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 92.5% on time from 309 flights
- 9 AM: 90.7% on time from 903 flights
- 10 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 86.2% on time from 285 flights
- 1 PM: 83.9% on time from 626 flights
- 2 PM: 73.8% on time from 412 flights
- 3 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 70.1% on time from 675 flights
- 7 PM: 81.0% on time from 467 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why TPA → IAD runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for TPA → IAD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on TPA → IAD, at 41.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 92.4% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 74.5%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 3,590 | 83.1% | 1.31% | -9 min | 6.9% |
| Frontier Airlines | 350 | 74.6% | 3.43% | -7 min | 10.1% |
United Airlines flew 91.1% of the 3,940 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 3.43% of its flights here against 1.31% for United Airlines.
United Airlines arrived on time 8.5 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 85.2%
- Feb: 84.6%
- Mar: 77.0%
- Apr: 89.6%
- May: 80.1%
- Jun: 77.1%
- Jul: 71.4%
- Aug: 74.6%
- Sep: 87.9%
- Oct: 92.2%
- Nov: 92.1%
- Dec: 85.1%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 20.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (92)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (90)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (89)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (93)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (90)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (90)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (90)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (92)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (89)
- December 2024: too few flights to score (108)
- January 2025: too few flights to score (105)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (111)
- March 2025: 72.0% from 153 flights
- April 2025: 84.1% from 151 flights
- May 2025: 79.6% from 142 flights
- June 2025: 70.3% from 141 flights
- July 2025: 69.8% from 171 flights
- August 2025: 74.2% from 129 flights
- September 2025: 93.5% from 123 flights
- October 2025: too few flights to score (107)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (104)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (114)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (109)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (91)
- March 2026: 83.5% from 128 flights
- April 2026: too few flights to score (100)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (97)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (95)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (108)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 85.1% against 79.6% in the 12 months before — improving by 5.5 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,940 TPA → IAD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed