Route profile
SMF→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Sacramento to Minneapolis, 1,517 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 97% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 1,757 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
SMF → MSP arrives on time 90.9% of the time; the return trip, MSP → SMF, arrives on time 82.7% of the time, an 8.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
SMF → MSP spends 22.2 minutes on the ground on a 1,517-mile trip: 15.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SMF and 6.7 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route stays close to typical even on its worst days, a smaller gap than 98% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 11 min early, and the worst tenth are only 24 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where SMF to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
SMF to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 2 PM: 94.2% arrive on time, 21.1 points ahead of the 73.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 19.6 points.
SMF to MSP holds up on Thursdays better than routes of similar length do: 95.7% on time to their 76.7%, a 19 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 18.9 points.
July is kinder to SMF to MSP than to routes of similar length: 89.7% on time against 69.9%, 19.8 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 20 points.
Delta Air Lines does better on SMF to MSP than on its routes of similar length: 90.9% on time here, 82.6% there, 8.3 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 9.4 points.
SMF to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 94.2% | routes of similar length | 73.1% | +21.1 pts | 138 here, 84,142 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 95.7% | routes of similar length | 76.7% | +19.0 pts | 256 here, 230,641 there |
| Month: July | 89.7% | routes of similar length | 69.9% | +19.8 pts | 224 here, 181,346 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 90.9% | routes of similar length | 82.6% | +8.3 pts | 1,745 here, 291,762 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,517 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
13 min late
against a median of 11 min early
Percentiles over 1,757 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from SMF.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 20% | High risk |
| 45 min | 8.6% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 5.4% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 3.0% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.46% of the time and diverts 0.23% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 1,745 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 13 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 1,757 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Why SMF → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SMF → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,757 | 90.9% | 0.46% | -11 min | 3.0% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL2229 Delta Air Lines | 6:15 AM | 808 | 92.3% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Thursday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 92.5% against 90.2% in the 12 months before — improving by 2.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 1,757 SMF → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed