Route profile
MSP→SMF
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Sacramento, 1,517 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 88% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 1,757 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSP → SMF arrives on time 82.7% of the time; the return trip, SMF → MSP, arrives on time 90.9% of the time, an 8.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → SMF spends 23.2 minutes on the ground on a 1,517-mile trip: 17.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 6.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at SMF.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to SMF differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to SMF is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 11 AM: 93.1% arrive on time, 15 points ahead of the 78.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.1 points.
MSP to SMF holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 82.2% on time to their 75.4%, a 6.8 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 7.4 points.
July is kinder to MSP to SMF than to routes of similar length: 81.3% on time against 69.9%, 11.4 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 11.6 points.
MSP to SMF against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 11 AM departures | 93.1% | routes of similar length | 78.1% | +15.0 pts | 259 here, 87,595 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 82.2% | routes of similar length | 75.4% | +6.8 pts | 259 here, 227,473 there |
| Month: July | 81.3% | routes of similar length | 69.9% | +11.4 pts | 225 here, 181,345 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,517 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
31 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 1,757 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SMF after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 17% | High risk |
| 60 min | 10% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.4% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 1.8% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.40% of the time and diverts 0.00% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 1,750 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 31 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 1,757 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → SMF flights departing 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 89.9% of the time, against 75.6% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 14.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 8 AM: too few flights to score
- 9 AM: 89.2% on time from 215 flights
- 10 AM: 85.5% on time from 160 flights
- 11 AM: 93.1% on time from 259 flights
- 12 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 78.8% on time from 819 flights
- 7 PM to 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 74.4% on time from 229 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSP → SMF runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → SMF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,757 | 82.7% | 0.40% | -7 min | 4.6% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 9.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 82.6% against 81.8% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 1,757 MSP → SMF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed