Route profile
SFO→DCA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from San Francisco to Washington, 2,442 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 87% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,778 flights. How this is calculated
SFO → DCA arrives on time 82.2% of the time; the return trip, DCA → SFO, arrives on time 76.8% of the time, a 5.4-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
SFO → DCA spends 29.8 minutes on the ground on a 2,442-mile trip: 23.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SFO and 6.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at DCA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 95% of 5,368 comparable routes.
79.5% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 79.2% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where SFO to DCA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
SFO to DCA struggles most at 2 PM: 60.5% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 14.1 points behind the 74.6% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14.1 points.
SFO to DCA holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 88.8% on time to their 78.8%, a 10 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 9.7 points.
August is kinder to SFO to DCA than to routes of similar length: 85.6% on time against 76.9%, 8.7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.1 points.
In February, SFO to DCA runs 6.3 points below routes of similar length, 74.2% on time to 80.5%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.3 points.
Alaska Airlines does better on SFO to DCA than on its routes of similar length: 80.3% on time here, 76.0% there, 4.3 points apart.
SFO to DCA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 60.5% | routes of similar length | 74.6% | −14.1 pts | 124 here, 30,906 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 88.8% | routes of similar length | 78.8% | +10.0 pts | 385 here, 144,793 there |
| Month: August | 85.6% | routes of similar length | 76.9% | +8.7 pts | 215 here, 92,991 there |
| Month: February | 74.2% | routes of similar length | 80.5% | −6.3 pts | 209 here, 70,884 there |
| Airline: Alaska Airlines | 80.3% | routes of similar length | 76.0% | +4.3 pts | 1,109 here, 170,272 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,442 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
33 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 2,778 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DCA after arriving from SFO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 32% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 17% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.7% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.4% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.54% of the time and diverts 0.94% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,737 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 33 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,778 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
SFO → DCA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 87.0% of the time, against 71.0% for 12–3 PM departures, a gap of 16.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 87.0% on time from 1,716 flights
- 9 AM: 78.1% on time from 529 flights
- 10 AM to 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 73.3% on time from 364 flights
- 2 PM: 60.5% on time from 124 flights
- 3 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why SFO → DCA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SFO → DCA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 1,658 | 83.5% | 0.60% | -10 min | 4.9% |
| Alaska Airlines | 1,120 | 80.3% | 0.45% | -8 min | 4.8% |
United Airlines flew 59.7% of the 2,778 flights listed.
United Airlines arrived on time 3.2 percentage points more often than Alaska Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS8 Alaska Airlines | 8:00 AM | 1,120 | 80.3% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 9.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 84.4%
- Feb: 74.2%
- Mar: 83.3%
- Apr: 88.7%
- May: 80.2%
- Jun: 79.6%
- Jul: 74.0%
- Aug: 85.6%
- Sep: 84.9%
- Oct: 83.8%
- Nov: 86.0%
- Dec: 84.7%
July is historically the weakest month and April the strongest, a spread of 14.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 79.5% against 79.2% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,778 SFO → DCA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed