Route profile
DCA→SFO
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Washington to San Francisco, 2,442 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 43% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,777 flights. How this is calculated
DCA → SFO arrives on time 76.8% of the time; the return trip, SFO → DCA, arrives on time 82.2% of the time, a 5.4-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
DCA → SFO spends 30.3 minutes on the ground on a 2,442-mile trip: 22.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DCA and 8.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at SFO.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where DCA to SFO differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
DCA to SFO is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 AM: 90.5% arrive on time, 5.2 points ahead of the 85.3% those routes manage at that hour.
Thursday is the day DCA to SFO slips furthest against routes of similar length, 70.6% on time where they average 77.3%, 6.7 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 6.2 points.
In February, DCA to SFO runs 11 points below routes of similar length, 69.5% on time to 80.5%. Against all other routes the gap is 12 points.
Alaska Airlines’ flights on DCA to SFO arrive on time 72.4% of the time, 3.7 points below the 76.1% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 5.6 points.
DCA to SFO against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 AM departures | 90.5% | routes of similar length | 85.3% | +5.2 pts | 529 here, 109,626 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 70.6% | routes of similar length | 77.3% | −6.7 pts | 391 here, 157,191 there |
| Month: February | 69.5% | routes of similar length | 80.5% | −11.0 pts | 210 here, 70,883 there |
| Airline: Alaska Airlines | 72.4% | routes of similar length | 76.1% | −3.7 pts | 1,108 here, 170,273 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,442 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
52 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 2,777 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SFO after arriving from DCA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 38% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | High risk |
| 90 min | 8.8% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.1% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.83% of the time and diverts 0.25% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,747 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 52 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,777 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
DCA → SFO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.5% of the time, against 70.9% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 19.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 90.5% on time from 531 flights
- 8 AM to 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 74.8% on time from 1,499 flights
- 6 PM: 70.6% on time from 735 flights
- 7 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why DCA → SFO runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DCA → SFO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 1,657 | 79.7% | 0.91% | -8 min | 7.6% |
| Alaska Airlines | 1,120 | 72.4% | 0.71% | -4 min | 10.6% |
United Airlines flew 59.7% of the 2,777 flights listed.
United Airlines arrived on time 7.3 percentage points more often than Alaska Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS7 Alaska Airlines | 6:59 PM | 1,120 | 72.4% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 12.0 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 84.8%
- Feb: 69.5%
- Mar: 81.0%
- Apr: 77.3%
- May: 74.6%
- Jun: 65.4%
- Jul: 65.0%
- Aug: 80.6%
- Sep: 85.9%
- Oct: 79.6%
- Nov: 82.6%
- Dec: 80.6%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 20.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 73.6% against 78.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.1 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,777 DCA → SFO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed