SAN → SMF Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · SANNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:51 UTC

San Diego airport profile →

Destination · SMFNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Sacramento airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

71/ 100Good

Better than 64% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 16,348 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

77.1%

12,505 of 16,210

Cancellation rate

0.79%

129 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-3 min

Average 6.1 min

Severe delays

5.7%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

49 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

16,348

4 carriers

SAN → SMF arrives on time 77.1% of the time; the return trip, SMF → SAN, arrives on time 76.3% of the time.

SAN → SMF spends 23.6 minutes on the ground on a 480-mile trip: 18.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SAN and 5.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at SMF.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 95% of 5,368 comparable routes.

76.0% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 75.7% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.

Why SAN → SMF flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

SAN → SMF cancelled 129 of 16,348 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 127. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 52.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 240 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather52.7%

Airline24.0%

Air traffic23.3%

Security0.0%

Of 129 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 240

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

68 cancellations, 52.7% of the total.

The airline1 in 527

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

31 cancellations, 24.0% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 545

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

30 cancellations, 23.3% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

129 coded cancellations were recorded on SAN → SMF; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

38 min late

against a median of 3 min early

Arrived an hour or more late5.7%

Typical delay when late49 min

Cancelled0.79%

Landed somewhere else0.06%

Percentiles over 16,348 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at SMF after arriving from SAN.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, SAN → SMF arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	41%	Likely to miss
45 min	22%	High risk
60 min	13%	Some risk
90 min	5.6%	Some risk
120 min	2.8%	Low risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.79% of the time and diverts 0.06% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 16,210 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 38 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 16,348 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

SAN → SMF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.2% of the time, against 65.4% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 25.8 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (SAN).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 9.2 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 4.9 points.

On-time arrival rate for SAN to SMF by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM
9 PM–10 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures after 10 PM (65 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for SAN to SMF. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	95.2% on time148 flights	104 flights, too few to score	104 flights, too few to score	97.3% on time151 flights	93.9% on time150 flights	105 flights, too few to score	93.5% on time140 flights
7 AM–8 AM	113 flights, too few to score	96.2% on time136 flights	92.4% on time133 flights	107 flights, too few to score	106 flights, too few to score	88 flights, too few to score	92.0% on time163 flights
8 AM–9 AM	85.1% on time184 flights	91.2% on time159 flights	88.6% on time160 flights	87.2% on time196 flights	86.3% on time187 flights	86.9% on time160 flights	84.1% on time202 flights
9 AM–10 AM	83.9% on time218 flights	90.7% on time195 flights	90.2% on time195 flights	84.1% on time217 flights	82.2% on time221 flights	90.6% on time139 flights	84.0% on time188 flights
10 AM–11 AM	86.0% on time166 flights	87.5% on time128 flights	86.1% on time122 flights	80.6% on time165 flights	84.1% on time166 flights	98 flights, too few to score	86.1% on time146 flights
11 AM–12 PM	76.3% on time153 flights	80 flights, too few to score	78 flights, too few to score	78.8% on time161 flights	74.5% on time161 flights	115 flights, too few to score	78.4% on time150 flights
12 PM–1 PM	66.7% on time162 flights	80.4% on time185 flights	74.3% on time167 flights	66.0% on time154 flights	67.1% on time149 flights	102 flights, too few to score	74.2% on time152 flights
1 PM–2 PM	70.8% on time171 flights	119 flights, too few to score	117 flights, too few to score	71.6% on time171 flights	61.9% on time176 flights	71 flights, too few to score	75.4% on time132 flights
2 PM–3 PM	77.6% on time165 flights	80.9% on time136 flights	79.0% on time145 flights	73.3% on time165 flights	75.2% on time161 flights	77.0% on time139 flights	71.2% on time140 flights
3 PM–4 PM	71.1% on time123 flights	80.8% on time121 flights	83.2% on time126 flights	64.5% on time121 flights	62.5% on time128 flights	64 flights, too few to score	68.1% on time139 flights
4 PM–5 PM	67.3% on time166 flights	84.2% on time120 flights	86.9% on time130 flights	63.8% on time163 flights	58.8% on time167 flights	80 flights, too few to score	62.9% on time171 flights
5 PM–6 PM	73.2% on time195 flights	79.5% on time173 flights	82.9% on time160 flights	76.2% on time186 flights	66.3% on time194 flights	75.9% on time170 flights	72.7% on time196 flights
6 PM–7 PM	67.1% on time155 flights	82.9% on time147 flights	78.1% on time147 flights	59.1% on time151 flights	64.1% on time156 flights	93 flights, too few to score	116 flights, too few to score
7 PM–8 PM	70.7% on time147 flights	105 flights, too few to score	110 flights, too few to score	62.7% on time155 flights	60.4% on time155 flights	113 flights, too few to score	61.4% on time155 flights
8 PM–9 PM	57.5% on time128 flights	75.0% on time136 flights	72.8% on time137 flights	118 flights, too few to score	58.6% on time120 flights	93 flights, too few to score	50.9% on time175 flights
9 PM–10 PM	61.8% on time174 flights	111 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score	65.0% on time166 flights	58.0% on time173 flights	96 flights, too few to score	56.2% on time209 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM91.2%

9 AM–12 PM84.0%

12–3 PM74.5%

3–6 PM72.5%

6–9 PM66.9%

9 PM–5 AM65.4%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why SAN → SMF runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft67.6%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline19.0%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control11.6%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather1.4%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.3%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SAN → SMF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on SAN → SMF, at 67.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.2% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 65.4%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

The harder-hit end is the one the flight leaves from, where a cancellation keeps it from departing at all. Bad weather cancels 3.5 times the normal rate at SAN against 1.6 times at SMF. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: SAN 3.5% against 1.0%, SMF 1.0% against 0.6%. Flights that did leave SAN in bad weather arrived on time 66.7% of the time, against 78.4% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from SAN and SMF in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	SAN	SMF
Cancelled in bad weather	3.5%	1.0%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.0%	0.6%
Arrived on time, bad weather	66.7%	83.0%
Arrived on time, normal hours	78.4%	83.2%
Departures in bad weather	19,707	12,018

Southwest Airlines (4.5% cancelled against 3.2% for the other carriers at SAN) and SkyWest Airlines (5.5% cancelled against 3.3% for the other carriers at SAN) cancelled more departures from SAN in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly better. One more carrier flies this route but has too few bad-weather departures from SAN to compare.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at SAN

All departures from SAN

Cancellation rates in bad weather at SAN for the airlines that fly SAN to SMF, against the other carriers at SAN in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Alaska Airlines	2,278	3.2%about level	3.6%
Southwest Airlines	6,793	4.5%above the others	3.2%
SkyWest Airlines	2,629	5.5%above the others	3.3%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from SAN and SMF, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from SAN on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: SAN (airlines), SMF, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
Southwest Airlines	12,127	77.3%	0.68%	-4 min	5.6%
SkyWest Airlines	3,651	76.7%	0.93%	-3 min	6.2%
Spirit Airlines	240	80.3%	2.08%	-3 min	6.0%
Alaska Airlines	216	75.8%	2.31%	-4 min	6.6%

Southwest Airlines flew 74.7% of the 16,234 flights listed. Alaska Airlines cancelled 2.31% of its flights here against 0.68% for Southwest Airlines.

Spirit Airlines arrived on time 4.5 percentage points more often than Alaska Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
OO3439 SkyWest Airlines	1:23 PM	656	71.5%

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon75.2%

Tue85.0%

Wed83.6%

Thu74.9%

Fri71.6%

Sat80.2%

Sun72.7%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 13.4 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

June is historically the weakest month and January the strongest, a spread of 13.0 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.0% against 75.7% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 16,348 SAN → SMF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

SAN airport SMF airport Return direction SMF → SAN

SAN→SMF

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why SAN → SMF flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why SAN → SMF runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at SAN

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology