Route profile
SAN→MCO
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from San Diego to Orlando, 2,149 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 45% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,492 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
SAN → MCO arrives on time 75.8% of the time; the return trip, MCO → SAN, arrives on time 73.8% of the time, a 2.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
SAN → MCO spends 34.9 minutes on the ground on a 2,149-mile trip: 22.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SAN and 12.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at MCO.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every airline on this route performs about the same, a narrower carrier gap than 99% of 2,692 comparable routes.
Southwest Airlines (76.6% on time) and Alaska Airlines (76.3%) are close together here.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where SAN to MCO differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
SAN to MCO struggles most at 9 AM: 69.2% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 12.5 points behind the 81.7% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 15.1 points.
SAN to MCO is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 9 PM: 82.8% arrive on time, 5.1 points ahead of the 77.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.4 points.
Friday is the day SAN to MCO slips furthest against routes of similar length, 72.0% on time where they average 77.6%, 5.6 points lower.
In March, SAN to MCO runs 13.9 points below routes of similar length, 65.2% on time to 79.1%. Against all other routes the gap is 12.7 points.
May is kinder to SAN to MCO than to routes of similar length: 87.0% on time against 77.4%, 9.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 11.8 points.
SAN to MCO against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 AM departures | 69.2% | routes of similar length | 81.7% | −12.5 pts | 386 here, 73,856 there |
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 82.8% | routes of similar length | 77.7% | +5.1 pts | 494 here, 48,430 there |
| Weekday: Friday | 72.0% | routes of similar length | 77.6% | −5.6 pts | 364 here, 157,472 there |
| Month: March | 65.2% | routes of similar length | 79.1% | −13.9 pts | 233 here, 85,195 there |
| Month: May | 87.0% | routes of similar length | 77.4% | +9.6 pts | 239 here, 93,001 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,149 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
39 min late
against a median of 4 min early
Percentiles over 2,492 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MCO after arriving from SAN.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 41% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.0% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.6% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.48% of the time and diverts 0.48% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,443 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 39 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,492 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
SAN → MCO flights departing 9 PM–5 AM arrived on time 82.7% of the time, against 70.2% for 9 AM–12 PM departures, a gap of 12.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 79.0% on time from 281 flights
- 9 AM: 69.2% on time from 393 flights
- 10 AM: 71.9% on time from 470 flights
- 11 AM: 69.0% on time from 325 flights
- 12 PM to 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 82.8% on time from 498 flights
- 10 PM: 82.7% on time from 444 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why SAN → MCO runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SAN → MCO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on SAN → MCO, at 43.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 9 PM–5 AM departures arrived on time 82.7% of the time and 9 AM–12 PM departures 70.2%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 1,863 | 76.3% | 1.34% | -5 min | 6.2% |
| Southwest Airlines | 562 | 76.6% | 0.53% | -2 min | 3.8% |
Alaska Airlines flew 76.8% of the 2,425 flights listed.
Carriers on this route performed within a couple of percentage points of each other.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 9.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 78.9%
- Feb: 82.7%
- Mar: 65.2%
- Apr: 89.2%
- May: 87.0%
- Jun: 78.2%
- Jul: 69.1%
- Aug: 67.6%
- Sep: no data
- Oct: 71.4%
- Nov: 72.4%
- Dec: 68.9%
March is historically the weakest month and April the strongest, a spread of 24.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.0% against 73.7% in the 12 months before — improving by 3.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,492 SAN → MCO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed