Route profile
MCO→SAN
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Orlando to San Diego, 2,149 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 26% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 2,492 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MCO → SAN arrives on time 73.8% of the time; the return trip, SAN → MCO, arrives on time 75.8% of the time, a 2.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MCO → SAN spends 29.8 minutes on the ground on a 2,149-mile trip: 22.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 7.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at SAN.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MCO to SAN differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MCO to SAN struggles most at 6 PM: 57.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 11.5 points behind the 69.4% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.7 points.
Sunday is the day MCO to SAN slips furthest against routes of similar length, 68.1% on time where they average 76.3%, 8.2 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 6.7 points.
In November, MCO to SAN runs 15.1 points below routes of similar length, 68.6% on time to 83.7%. Against all other routes the gap is 14.8 points.
MCO to SAN against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 57.9% | routes of similar length | 69.4% | −11.5 pts | 311 here, 59,106 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 68.1% | routes of similar length | 76.3% | −8.2 pts | 354 here, 156,331 there |
| Month: November | 68.6% | routes of similar length | 83.7% | −15.1 pts | 153 here, 82,664 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,149 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
52 min late
against a median of 4 min early
Percentiles over 2,492 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SAN after arriving from MCO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 43% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 8.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.5% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.89% of the time and diverts 0.24% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 2,439 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 52 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 2,492 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MCO → SAN flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 84.3% of the time, against 57.6% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 26.7 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 84.0% on time from 660 flights
- 8 AM: 84.3% on time from 189 flights
- 9 AM to 3 PM: too few flights to score
- 4 PM: 73.1% on time from 496 flights
- 5 PM: 69.8% on time from 542 flights
- 6 PM: 57.9% on time from 316 flights
- 7 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MCO → SAN runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → SAN. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → SAN, at 38.4%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 84.3% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 57.6%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 1,863 | 75.5% | 1.83% | -5 min | 8.8% |
| Southwest Airlines | 562 | 70.6% | 0.71% | -1 min | 7.2% |
Alaska Airlines flew 76.8% of the 2,425 flights listed. Alaska Airlines cancelled 1.83% of its flights here against 0.71% for Southwest Airlines.
Alaska Airlines arrived on time 4.9 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS397 Alaska Airlines | 4:30 PM | 1,115 | 70.3% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 73.6%
- Feb: 83.8%
- Mar: 74.8%
- Apr: 81.0%
- May: 76.7%
- Jun: 73.5%
- Jul: 65.7%
- Aug: 69.5%
- Sep: no data
- Oct: 71.7%
- Nov: 68.6%
- Dec: 78.4%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 18.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.3% against 73.4% in the 12 months before — improving by 2.9 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 2,492 MCO → SAN flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed