Route profile
RDU→JFK
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Raleigh–Durham to New York, 427 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 13% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,864 flights. How this is calculated
RDU → JFK arrives on time 77.6% of the time; the return trip, JFK → RDU, arrives on time 78.3% of the time.
RDU → JFK spends 32.8 minutes on the ground on a 427-mile trip: 21.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at RDU and 11.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at JFK.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where RDU to JFK differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
RDU to JFK struggles most at 5 PM: 59.5% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 10.7 points behind the 70.2% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.3 points.
RDU to JFK is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 2 PM: 80.6% arrive on time, 4.9 points ahead of the 75.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6 points.
Saturday is the day RDU to JFK slips furthest against routes of similar length, 75.5% on time where they average 80.7%, 5.2 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 3.6 points.
In December, RDU to JFK runs 4.6 points below routes of similar length, 74.7% on time to 79.3%. Against all other routes the gap is 4.1 points.
JetBlue’s flights on RDU to JFK arrive on time 69.1% of the time, 5 points below the 74.1% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 3.1 points.
RDU to JFK against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 59.5% | routes of similar length | 70.2% | −10.7 pts | 422 here, 113,563 there |
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 80.6% | routes of similar length | 75.7% | +4.9 pts | 787 here, 90,514 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 75.5% | routes of similar length | 80.7% | −5.2 pts | 1,418 here, 190,041 there |
| Month: December | 74.7% | routes of similar length | 79.3% | −4.6 pts | 863 here, 128,321 there |
| Airline: JetBlue | 69.1% | routes of similar length | 74.1% | −5.0 pts | 2,796 here, 31,001 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 427 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why RDU → JFK flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
RDU → JFK cancelled 361 of 9,864 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 27. The reason filed most often was the air traffic system, 51.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 54 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 361 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
184 cancellations, 51.0% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
137 cancellations, 38.0% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
40 cancellations, 11.1% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
361 coded cancellations were recorded on RDU → JFK; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
54 min late
against a median of 8 min early
RDU → JFK has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 8 min early, but the worst tenth are 62 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 9,864 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at JFK after arriving from RDU.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 35% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 9.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.5% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 3.66% of the time and diverts 0.14% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 9,489 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 54 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,864 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
RDU → JFK flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.1% of the time, against 64.1% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 25.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 92.8% on time from 923 flights
- 6 AM: 88.0% on time from 1,074 flights
- 7 AM: 89.0% on time from 302 flights
- 8 AM: 78.4% on time from 211 flights
- 9 AM: 84.9% on time from 511 flights
- 10 AM: 85.0% on time from 659 flights
- 11 AM: 78.7% on time from 546 flights
- 12 PM: 71.4% on time from 1,078 flights
- 1 PM: 76.7% on time from 591 flights
- 2 PM: 80.6% on time from 816 flights
- 3 PM: 76.3% on time from 382 flights
- 4 PM: 69.1% on time from 446 flights
- 5 PM: 59.5% on time from 464 flights
- 6 PM: 67.7% on time from 344 flights
- 7 PM: 64.0% on time from 840 flights
- 8 PM: 61.4% on time from 410 flights
- 9 PM: 73.2% on time from 246 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why RDU → JFK runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for RDU → JFK. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on RDU → JFK, at 39.4%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.1% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 64.1%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Airways | 4,336 | 80.1% | 3.48% | -8 min | 7.3% |
| JetBlue | 2,907 | 69.1% | 3.72% | -3 min | 13.6% |
| Endeavor Air | 2,587 | 82.6% | 3.94% | -13 min | 7.7% |
Republic Airways flew 44.1% of the 9,830 flights listed.
Endeavor Air arrived on time 13.5 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Other ways to fly Raleigh–Durham to New York
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDU→LGA Raleigh–Durham to New York | 10,234 | 75.2% | 3.91% | -7 min | 39 |
| RDU→JFK this route Raleigh–Durham to New York | 9,864 | 77.6% | 3.66% | -8 min | 49 |
RDU → JFK is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 77.6% on time, against 75.2% for RDU → LGA.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
YX4805 (6:00 AM) arrived on time 92.4% of the time, 19.6 points more often than YX4765 (12:07 PM) at 72.8%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Saturday the least, a gap of 6.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 78.7%
- Feb: 81.5%
- Mar: 79.7%
- Apr: 78.1%
- May: 78.5%
- Jun: 72.1%
- Jul: 67.0%
- Aug: 76.4%
- Sep: 81.7%
- Oct: 82.7%
- Nov: 82.0%
- Dec: 74.7%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 15.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 65.2% from 396 flights
- August 2023: 78.3% from 404 flights
- September 2023: 77.0% from 390 flights
- October 2023: 84.8% from 404 flights
- November 2023: 80.8% from 344 flights
- December 2023: 78.8% from 323 flights
- January 2024: 78.1% from 294 flights
- February 2024: 85.2% from 293 flights
- March 2024: 79.9% from 311 flights
- April 2024: 75.5% from 320 flights
- May 2024: 78.1% from 372 flights
- June 2024: 77.0% from 342 flights
- July 2024: 69.9% from 341 flights
- August 2024: 73.1% from 341 flights
- September 2024: 87.0% from 330 flights
- October 2024: 85.5% from 344 flights
- November 2024: 87.0% from 338 flights
- December 2024: 74.9% from 321 flights
- January 2025: 80.1% from 189 flights
- February 2025: 81.0% from 165 flights
- March 2025: 83.4% from 178 flights
- April 2025: 77.4% from 170 flights
- May 2025: 75.3% from 190 flights
- June 2025: 67.8% from 204 flights
- July 2025: 67.2% from 217 flights
- August 2025: 77.5% from 201 flights
- September 2025: 81.5% from 197 flights
- October 2025: 73.4% from 195 flights
- November 2025: 76.7% from 247 flights
- December 2025: 68.8% from 233 flights
- January 2026: 78.0% from 184 flights
- February 2026: 75.5% from 185 flights
- March 2026: 75.9% from 197 flights
- April 2026: 84.0% from 156 flights
- May 2026: 83.3% from 163 flights
- June 2026: 68.3% from 187 flights
- July 2026: 64.8% from 198 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.3% against 78.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.6 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,864 RDU → JFK flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed