Route profile
RDU→EWR
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Raleigh–Durham to Newark, 416 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 6% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,017 flights. How this is calculated
RDU → EWR arrives on time 76.1% of the time; the return trip, EWR → RDU, arrives on time 77.4% of the time.
RDU → EWR spends 32.6 minutes on the ground on a 416-mile trip: 22.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at RDU and 9.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at EWR.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
The airline matters unusually much on this route, a wider carrier-to-carrier gap than 99% of 2,692 comparable routes.
Republic Airways arrived on time 82.8% of the time, against 53.4% for Spirit Airlines, flying the exact same route.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where RDU to EWR differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
RDU to EWR struggles most at 7 PM: 58.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 10 points behind the 68.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.9 points.
RDU to EWR is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 11 AM: 86.5% arrive on time, 3.8 points ahead of the 82.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.5 points.
Wednesday is the day RDU to EWR slips furthest against routes of similar length, 78.0% on time where they average 82.1%, 4.1 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 2.8 points.
In November, RDU to EWR runs 8.8 points below routes of similar length, 74.9% on time to 83.7%. Against all other routes the gap is 8.5 points.
Endeavor Air’s flights on RDU to EWR arrive on time 76.6% of the time, 6.7 points below the 83.3% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 7.7 points.
RDU to EWR against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 58.9% | routes of similar length | 68.9% | −10.0 pts | 448 here, 91,350 there |
| Hour: 11 AM departures | 86.5% | routes of similar length | 82.7% | +3.8 pts | 585 here, 86,741 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 78.0% | routes of similar length | 82.1% | −4.1 pts | 978 here, 211,800 there |
| Month: November | 74.9% | routes of similar length | 83.7% | −8.8 pts | 677 here, 122,860 there |
| Airline: Endeavor Air | 76.6% | routes of similar length | 83.3% | −6.7 pts | 1,199 here, 21,926 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 416 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why RDU → EWR flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
RDU → EWR cancelled 243 of 7,017 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 29. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 55.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 52 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 243 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
135 cancellations, 55.6% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
69 cancellations, 28.4% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
39 cancellations, 16.0% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
243 coded cancellations were recorded on RDU → EWR; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
70 min late
against a median of 8 min early
RDU → EWR has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 8 min early, but the worst tenth are 78 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 7,017 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at EWR after arriving from RDU.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 37% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 17% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.8% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 3.46% of the time and diverts 0.10% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,767 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 70 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,017 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
RDU → EWR flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 87.1% of the time, against 60.7% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 26.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 91.7% on time from 730 flights
- 7 AM: 84.1% on time from 1,090 flights
- 8 AM: 86.6% on time from 219 flights
- 9 AM: 89.5% on time from 225 flights
- 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 86.5% on time from 589 flights
- 12 PM: 83.3% on time from 731 flights
- 1 PM: 76.1% on time from 234 flights
- 2 PM: 74.9% on time from 419 flights
- 3 PM: 67.1% on time from 494 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 61.7% on time from 683 flights
- 6 PM: 61.0% on time from 897 flights
- 7 PM: 58.9% on time from 491 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why RDU → EWR runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for RDU → EWR. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 4,508 | 75.7% | 2.42% | -7 min | 12.1% |
| Endeavor Air | 1,251 | 76.6% | 4.00% | -7 min | 10.3% |
| Republic Airways | 1,004 | 82.8% | 5.28% | -14 min | 6.6% |
| Spirit Airlines | 254 | 53.4% | 12.20% | 12 min | 24.7% |
United Airlines flew 64.2% of the 7,017 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 12.20% of its flights here against 2.42% for United Airlines.
Republic Airways arrived on time 29.4 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly Raleigh–Durham to New York
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDU→LGA Raleigh–Durham to New York | 10,234 | 75.2% | 3.91% | -7 min | 39 |
| RDU→EWR this route Raleigh–Durham to Newark | 7,017 | 76.1% | 3.46% | -8 min | 42 |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 6.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.4%
- Feb: 83.9%
- Mar: 79.6%
- Apr: 82.2%
- May: 73.8%
- Jun: 71.0%
- Jul: 64.8%
- Aug: 72.9%
- Sep: 81.4%
- Oct: 78.4%
- Nov: 74.9%
- Dec: 72.1%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 19.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 63.0% from 225 flights
- August 2023: 79.5% from 226 flights
- September 2023: 80.5% from 235 flights
- October 2023: 88.8% from 241 flights
- November 2023: 92.3% from 248 flights
- December 2023: 87.1% from 188 flights
- January 2024: 81.1% from 194 flights
- February 2024: 88.7% from 205 flights
- March 2024: 89.0% from 220 flights
- April 2024: 86.5% from 241 flights
- May 2024: 75.7% from 241 flights
- June 2024: 70.1% from 204 flights
- July 2024: 61.8% from 217 flights
- August 2024: 71.0% from 211 flights
- September 2024: 82.5% from 206 flights
- October 2024: 80.7% from 233 flights
- November 2024: 60.2% from 246 flights
- December 2024: 67.6% from 226 flights
- January 2025: 79.7% from 146 flights
- February 2025: 75.4% from 135 flights
- March 2025: 76.7% from 149 flights
- April 2025: 68.8% from 129 flights
- May 2025: 48.6% from 156 flights
- June 2025: 64.1% from 166 flights
- July 2025: 59.2% from 144 flights
- August 2025: 65.3% from 144 flights
- September 2025: 81.2% from 141 flights
- October 2025: 60.4% from 170 flights
- November 2025: 71.0% from 190 flights
- December 2025: 61.5% from 178 flights
- January 2026: 86.8% from 155 flights
- February 2026: 84.9% from 157 flights
- March 2026: 70.1% from 175 flights
- April 2026: 85.5% from 197 flights
- May 2026: 91.9% from 174 flights
- June 2026: 79.6% from 150 flights
- July 2026: 76.2% from 154 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.1% against 69.7% in the 12 months before — improving by 6.4 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,017 RDU → EWR flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed