Route profile
EWR→RDU
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Newark to Raleigh–Durham, 416 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 18% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,017 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
EWR → RDU arrives on time 77.4% of the time; the return trip, RDU → EWR, arrives on time 76.1% of the time.
EWR → RDU spends 30.1 minutes on the ground on a 416-mile trip: 24.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at EWR and 5.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at RDU.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
The airline matters unusually much on this route, a wider carrier-to-carrier gap than 99% of 2,692 comparable routes.
Republic Airways arrived on time 87.7% of the time, against 61.8% for Spirit Airlines, flying the exact same route.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where EWR to RDU differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
EWR to RDU is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 12 PM: 91.6% arrive on time, 10.5 points ahead of the 81.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.2 points.
EWR to RDU struggles most at 8 PM: 60.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 7.9 points behind the 68.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.8 points.
In July, EWR to RDU runs 7.6 points below routes of similar length, 62.8% on time to 70.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 6.9 points.
Endeavor Air’s flights on EWR to RDU arrive on time 77.6% of the time, 5.7 points below the 83.3% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 6.7 points.
Republic Airways does better on EWR to RDU than on its routes of similar length: 87.7% on time here, 82.6% there, 5.1 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 5.6 points.
EWR to RDU against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 12 PM departures | 91.6% | routes of similar length | 81.1% | +10.5 pts | 131 here, 87,508 there |
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 60.6% | routes of similar length | 68.5% | −7.9 pts | 373 here, 76,300 there |
| Month: July | 62.8% | routes of similar length | 70.4% | −7.6 pts | 666 here, 169,293 there |
| Airline: Endeavor Air | 77.6% | routes of similar length | 83.3% | −5.7 pts | 1,200 here, 21,925 there |
| Airline: Republic Airways | 87.7% | routes of similar length | 82.6% | +5.1 pts | 970 here, 130,742 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 416 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why EWR → RDU flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
EWR → RDU cancelled 206 of 7,017 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 34. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 57.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 59 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 206 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
119 cancellations, 57.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
58 cancellations, 28.2% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
29 cancellations, 14.1% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
206 coded cancellations were recorded on EWR → RDU; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
56 min late
against a median of 8 min early
EWR → RDU has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 8 min early, but the worst tenth are 64 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 7,017 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at RDU after arriving from EWR.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.4% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.1% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.94% of the time and diverts 0.17% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,799 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 56 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,017 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
EWR → RDU flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.0% of the time, against 66.5% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 22.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 89.9% on time from 267 flights
- 7 AM: 88.7% on time from 801 flights
- 8 AM: too few flights to score
- 9 AM: 85.1% on time from 482 flights
- 10 AM: 82.2% on time from 779 flights
- 11 AM: 88.7% on time from 260 flights
- 12 PM: 91.6% on time from 132 flights
- 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 75.8% on time from 904 flights
- 3 PM: 74.9% on time from 572 flights
- 4 PM: 72.6% on time from 571 flights
- 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 76.9% on time from 278 flights
- 7 PM: 65.7% on time from 811 flights
- 8 PM: 60.6% on time from 389 flights
- 9 PM: 68.6% on time from 521 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why EWR → RDU runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for EWR → RDU. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on EWR → RDU, at 49.5%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 66.5%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 4,510 | 75.9% | 2.26% | -8 min | 10.3% |
| Endeavor Air | 1,251 | 77.6% | 3.84% | -8 min | 10.5% |
| Republic Airways | 1,001 | 87.7% | 3.10% | -13 min | 3.0% |
| Spirit Airlines | 255 | 61.8% | 9.80% | 0 min | 18.4% |
United Airlines flew 64.3% of the 7,017 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 9.80% of its flights here against 2.26% for United Airlines.
Republic Airways arrived on time 25.9 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 9.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.8%
- Feb: 82.1%
- Mar: 82.4%
- Apr: 79.2%
- May: 73.9%
- Jun: 78.5%
- Jul: 62.8%
- Aug: 76.1%
- Sep: 81.2%
- Oct: 81.9%
- Nov: 79.3%
- Dec: 76.3%
July is historically the weakest month and March the strongest, a spread of 19.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 58.2% from 224 flights
- August 2023: 82.1% from 226 flights
- September 2023: 82.4% from 236 flights
- October 2023: 90.9% from 241 flights
- November 2023: 92.3% from 247 flights
- December 2023: 88.3% from 189 flights
- January 2024: 74.2% from 194 flights
- February 2024: 91.0% from 204 flights
- March 2024: 89.5% from 219 flights
- April 2024: 72.2% from 241 flights
- May 2024: 73.2% from 242 flights
- June 2024: 76.8% from 204 flights
- July 2024: 60.5% from 216 flights
- August 2024: 68.4% from 211 flights
- September 2024: 80.0% from 206 flights
- October 2024: 82.8% from 233 flights
- November 2024: 74.4% from 246 flights
- December 2024: 74.3% from 226 flights
- January 2025: 81.1% from 146 flights
- February 2025: 70.8% from 135 flights
- March 2025: 83.1% from 149 flights
- April 2025: 81.3% from 130 flights
- May 2025: 59.9% from 157 flights
- June 2025: 75.9% from 165 flights
- July 2025: 73.5% from 144 flights
- August 2025: 76.9% from 144 flights
- September 2025: 81.3% from 141 flights
- October 2025: 68.0% from 170 flights
- November 2025: 68.5% from 190 flights
- December 2025: 65.9% from 179 flights
- January 2026: 79.0% from 155 flights
- February 2026: 79.7% from 157 flights
- March 2026: 73.0% from 175 flights
- April 2026: 86.5% from 197 flights
- May 2026: 87.2% from 174 flights
- June 2026: 83.6% from 150 flights
- July 2026: 62.3% from 154 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.9% against 75.5% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,017 EWR → RDU flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed