Route profile
RDU→BNA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Raleigh–Durham to Nashville, 442 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 82% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,836 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
RDU → BNA arrives on time 83.7% of the time; the return trip, BNA → RDU, arrives on time 79.2% of the time, a 4.5-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
RDU → BNA spends 22.3 minutes on the ground on a 442-mile trip: 14.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at RDU and 8.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at BNA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where RDU to BNA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
RDU to BNA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 81.9% arrive on time, 13.8 points ahead of the 68.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14.1 points.
RDU to BNA struggles most at 4 PM: 67.4% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 3.9 points behind the 71.3% on routes of similar length at the same hour.
RDU to BNA holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 87.8% on time to their 80.3%, a 7.5 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 8.7 points.
June is kinder to RDU to BNA than to routes of similar length: 82.9% on time against 73.3%, 9.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 10.2 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on RDU to BNA than on its routes of similar length: 83.5% on time here, 78.2% there, 5.3 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 6.1 points.
RDU to BNA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 81.9% | routes of similar length | 68.1% | +13.8 pts | 315 here, 88,166 there |
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 67.4% | routes of similar length | 71.3% | −3.9 pts | 562 here, 83,078 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 87.8% | routes of similar length | 80.3% | +7.5 pts | 765 here, 182,029 there |
| Month: June | 82.9% | routes of similar length | 73.3% | +9.6 pts | 531 here, 127,242 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 83.5% | routes of similar length | 78.2% | +5.3 pts | 3,540 here, 466,999 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 442 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why RDU → BNA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
RDU → BNA cancelled 68 of 6,836 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 101. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 80.9% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 124 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 68 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
55 cancellations, 80.9% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
8 cancellations, 11.8% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
5 cancellations, 7.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
68 coded cancellations were recorded on RDU → BNA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
29 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 6,836 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at BNA after arriving from RDU.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 31% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 16% | High risk |
| 60 min | 9.7% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.2% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.2% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.99% of the time and diverts 0.22% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,753 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 29 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,836 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
RDU → BNA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 94.1% of the time, against 67.2% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 26.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 97.4% on time from 963 flights
- 7 AM: 89.0% on time from 553 flights
- 8 AM: 92.7% on time from 411 flights
- 9 AM: 91.7% on time from 690 flights
- 10 AM: 94.3% on time from 228 flights
- 11 AM: 86.7% on time from 205 flights
- 12 PM: 89.7% on time from 256 flights
- 1 PM: 83.7% on time from 329 flights
- 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 80.7% on time from 961 flights
- 4 PM: 67.4% on time from 571 flights
- 5 PM: 74.5% on time from 264 flights
- 6 PM: too few flights to score
- 7 PM: 81.9% on time from 318 flights
- 8 PM: 66.2% on time from 474 flights
- 9 PM: 65.7% on time from 330 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why RDU → BNA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for RDU → BNA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on RDU → BNA, at 58.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 94.1% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 67.2%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 3,569 | 83.5% | 0.64% | -6 min | 4.1% |
| Republic Airways | 2,421 | 84.7% | 1.53% | -8 min | 5.7% |
| Endeavor Air | 822 | 81.8% | 0.97% | -11 min | 9.0% |
Southwest Airlines flew 52.4% of the 6,812 flights listed.
Republic Airways arrived on time 2.9 percentage points more often than Endeavor Air on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 7.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 83.4%
- Feb: 90.4%
- Mar: 83.2%
- Apr: 85.3%
- May: 79.4%
- Jun: 82.9%
- Jul: 74.3%
- Aug: 83.7%
- Sep: 88.5%
- Oct: 88.6%
- Nov: 88.7%
- Dec: 79.7%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 16.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 69.8% from 200 flights
- August 2023: 81.8% from 203 flights
- September 2023: 93.0% from 200 flights
- October 2023: 90.6% from 212 flights
- November 2023: 92.1% from 190 flights
- December 2023: 85.2% from 183 flights
- January 2024: 80.9% from 171 flights
- February 2024: 93.8% from 160 flights
- March 2024: 85.0% from 193 flights
- April 2024: 89.9% from 208 flights
- May 2024: 79.9% from 215 flights
- June 2024: 90.0% from 201 flights
- July 2024: 76.3% from 202 flights
- August 2024: 81.9% from 202 flights
- September 2024: 85.6% from 204 flights
- October 2024: 95.7% from 212 flights
- November 2024: 92.7% from 192 flights
- December 2024: 83.5% from 170 flights
- January 2025: 86.7% from 149 flights
- February 2025: 88.7% from 128 flights
- March 2025: 85.0% from 154 flights
- April 2025: 86.9% from 162 flights
- May 2025: 84.5% from 172 flights
- June 2025: 75.8% from 166 flights
- July 2025: 72.9% from 173 flights
- August 2025: 88.2% from 161 flights
- September 2025: 86.9% from 183 flights
- October 2025: 78.8% from 195 flights
- November 2025: 81.1% from 187 flights
- December 2025: 71.5% from 201 flights
- January 2026: 83.0% from 186 flights
- February 2026: 88.5% from 167 flights
- March 2026: 80.3% from 205 flights
- April 2026: 79.2% from 197 flights
- May 2026: 74.3% from 192 flights
- June 2026: 81.3% from 166 flights
- July 2026: 78.5% from 174 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 80.7% against 85.1% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.4 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,836 RDU → BNA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed