Route profile
BNA→RDU
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Nashville to Raleigh–Durham, 442 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 57% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,842 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
BNA → RDU arrives on time 79.2% of the time; the return trip, RDU → BNA, arrives on time 83.7% of the time, a 4.5-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
BNA → RDU spends 22.6 minutes on the ground on a 442-mile trip: 15.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BNA and 6.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at RDU.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where BNA to RDU differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
BNA to RDU is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 76.5% arrive on time, 7.7 points ahead of the 68.8% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.9 points.
BNA to RDU struggles most at 6 AM: 85.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 6.9 points behind the 92.0% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.7 points.
BNA to RDU holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 83.6% on time to their 80.3%, a 3.3 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 4.5 points.
February is kinder to BNA to RDU than to routes of similar length: 88.5% on time against 81.7%, 6.8 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 7.1 points.
Republic Airways’ flights on BNA to RDU arrive on time 80.4% of the time, 2.3 points below the 82.7% it manages on its routes of similar length.
BNA to RDU against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 76.5% | routes of similar length | 68.8% | +7.7 pts | 599 here, 85,259 there |
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 85.1% | routes of similar length | 92.0% | −6.9 pts | 181 here, 106,597 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 83.6% | routes of similar length | 80.3% | +3.3 pts | 758 here, 182,036 there |
| Month: February | 88.5% | routes of similar length | 81.7% | +6.8 pts | 460 here, 108,051 there |
| Airline: Republic Airways | 80.4% | routes of similar length | 82.7% | −2.3 pts | 2,362 here, 170,748 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 442 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why BNA → RDU flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
BNA → RDU cancelled 89 of 6,842 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 77. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 75.3% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 102 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 89 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
67 cancellations, 75.3% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
16 cancellations, 18.0% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
6 cancellations, 6.7% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
89 coded cancellations were recorded on BNA → RDU; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
38 min late
against a median of 4 min early
Percentiles over 6,842 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at RDU after arriving from BNA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 20% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.30% of the time and diverts 0.19% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,740 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 38 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,842 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
BNA → RDU flights departing 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 88.7% of the time, against 70.5% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 18.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 85.1% on time from 189 flights
- 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 85.7% on time from 418 flights
- 9 AM: 90.4% on time from 477 flights
- 10 AM: 89.0% on time from 617 flights
- 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 88.6% on time from 802 flights
- 1 PM: 76.6% on time from 341 flights
- 2 PM: 79.1% on time from 368 flights
- 3 PM: 76.2% on time from 437 flights
- 4 PM: 73.8% on time from 761 flights
- 5 PM: 74.7% on time from 793 flights
- 6 PM: 76.5% on time from 611 flights
- 7 PM: 70.6% on time from 453 flights
- 8 PM: 61.4% on time from 409 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why BNA → RDU runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BNA → RDU. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on BNA → RDU, at 62.0%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 9 AM–12 PM departures arrived on time 88.7% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 70.5%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 3,577 | 77.8% | 0.84% | -2 min | 5.5% |
| Republic Airways | 2,419 | 80.4% | 2.11% | -5 min | 6.4% |
| Endeavor Air | 822 | 82.0% | 0.97% | -10 min | 10.5% |
Southwest Airlines flew 52.5% of the 6,818 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 2.11% of its flights here against 0.84% for Southwest Airlines.
Endeavor Air arrived on time 4.2 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| YX4596 Republic Airways | 4:59 PM | 617 | 71.2% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 80.6%
- Feb: 88.5%
- Mar: 79.6%
- Apr: 80.4%
- May: 73.1%
- Jun: 72.0%
- Jul: 69.4%
- Aug: 79.1%
- Sep: 86.3%
- Oct: 81.2%
- Nov: 86.4%
- Dec: 78.4%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 19.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 69.0% from 200 flights
- August 2023: 78.6% from 201 flights
- September 2023: 90.4% from 199 flights
- October 2023: 91.0% from 212 flights
- November 2023: 86.8% from 190 flights
- December 2023: 81.3% from 183 flights
- January 2024: 72.2% from 174 flights
- February 2024: 93.9% from 164 flights
- March 2024: 86.1% from 194 flights
- April 2024: 86.2% from 205 flights
- May 2024: 71.9% from 211 flights
- June 2024: 82.9% from 200 flights
- July 2024: 72.9% from 202 flights
- August 2024: 79.9% from 203 flights
- September 2024: 81.4% from 204 flights
- October 2024: 85.8% from 212 flights
- November 2024: 92.7% from 192 flights
- December 2024: 81.8% from 170 flights
- January 2025: 86.5% from 149 flights
- February 2025: 84.8% from 136 flights
- March 2025: 77.3% from 155 flights
- April 2025: 80.7% from 162 flights
- May 2025: 77.4% from 172 flights
- June 2025: 60.4% from 165 flights
- July 2025: 64.5% from 173 flights
- August 2025: 78.8% from 162 flights
- September 2025: 87.4% from 183 flights
- October 2025: 65.1% from 195 flights
- November 2025: 79.2% from 187 flights
- December 2025: 72.7% from 200 flights
- January 2026: 83.6% from 186 flights
- February 2026: 86.1% from 167 flights
- March 2026: 75.2% from 205 flights
- April 2026: 74.1% from 197 flights
- May 2026: 70.7% from 192 flights
- June 2026: 70.3% from 166 flights
- July 2026: 70.5% from 174 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.0% against 79.6% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.6 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,842 BNA → RDU flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed