Route profile
PHX→MCO
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Phoenix to Orlando, 1,849 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 54% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,436 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
PHX → MCO arrives on time 76.7% of the time; the return trip, MCO → PHX, arrives on time 75.3% of the time.
PHX → MCO spends 25.6 minutes on the ground on a 1,849-mile trip: 15.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHX and 9.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at MCO.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where PHX to MCO differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
PHX to MCO struggles most at 8 AM: 73.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 11 points behind the 84.0% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.9 points.
Thursday is the day PHX to MCO slips furthest against routes of similar length, 72.6% on time where they average 77.0%, 4.4 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 4.2 points.
In March, PHX to MCO runs 12.9 points below routes of similar length, 65.8% on time to 78.7%. Against all other routes the gap is 12.1 points.
June is kinder to PHX to MCO than to routes of similar length: 78.6% on time against 72.6%, 6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 5.9 points.
Frontier Airlines does better on PHX to MCO than on its routes of similar length: 73.4% on time here, 67.7% there, 5.7 points apart.
PHX to MCO against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 73.0% | routes of similar length | 84.0% | −11.0 pts | 500 here, 85,414 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 72.6% | routes of similar length | 77.0% | −4.4 pts | 767 here, 177,219 there |
| Month: March | 65.8% | routes of similar length | 78.7% | −12.9 pts | 532 here, 97,421 there |
| Month: June | 78.6% | routes of similar length | 72.6% | +6.0 pts | 430 here, 107,885 there |
| Airline: Frontier Airlines | 73.4% | routes of similar length | 67.7% | +5.7 pts | 770 here, 36,753 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,849 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
PHX to MCO in context
This route against PHX and MCO as a whole, against similar routes from PHX, and against its own first year, July 2023 – July 2026.
Leaving PHX, PHX to MCO is on time 76.7% of the time, 3.6 points worse than the airport’s other departures at PHX (80.3%, from 587,610 flights).
Of the 4,993 flights scheduled in hours with at least 120 flights, 11 PM is the busiest hour with 856 (17.1%), 80.6% of them on time, and 1 PM the quietest with 121 (2.4%), 65.0% of them on time.
Airport comparisons take this route’s flights out of the airport total. Length means within 15% of this route’s distance, with at least 3 other routes from the same origin. On-time gaps are stated at 2 points and 2 standard errors, cancellation gaps at 0.5 points and 2 standard errors, and every group needs 750 flights. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
39 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 5,436 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MCO after arriving from PHX.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 44% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.2% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.6% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.79% of the time and diverts 0.61% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,360 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 39 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,436 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
PHX → MCO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 81.2% of the time, against 61.3% for 12–3 PM departures, a gap of 19.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM: 72.7% on time from 252 flights
- 1 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 91.0% on time from 180 flights
- 7 AM: 90.7% on time from 232 flights
- 8 AM: 73.0% on time from 516 flights
- 9 AM: 80.2% on time from 658 flights
- 10 AM: 77.0% on time from 181 flights
- 11 AM to 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 65.0% on time from 121 flights
- 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 68.2% on time from 293 flights
- 4 PM: 73.0% on time from 671 flights
- 5 PM: 71.5% on time from 328 flights
- 6 PM to 9 PM: too few flights to score
- 10 PM: 82.4% on time from 705 flights
- 11 PM: 80.6% on time from 856 flights
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why PHX → MCO runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHX → MCO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on PHX → MCO, at 43.4%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 81.2% of the time and 12–3 PM departures 61.3%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 2,528 | 78.4% | 0.51% | -4 min | 6.0% |
| Southwest Airlines | 2,056 | 76.1% | 0.58% | -1 min | 5.6% |
| Frontier Airlines | 785 | 73.4% | 1.66% | -2 min | 7.9% |
American Airlines flew 47.1% of the 5,369 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 1.66% of its flights here against 0.51% for American Airlines.
American Airlines arrived on time 5.0 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Monday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 6.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 79.6%
- Feb: 80.3%
- Mar: 65.8%
- Apr: 81.0%
- May: 76.4%
- Jun: 78.6%
- Jul: 68.6%
- Aug: 70.6%
- Sep: 83.2%
- Oct: 82.0%
- Nov: 80.6%
- Dec: 79.7%
March is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 17.4 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 63.2% from 164 flights
- August 2023: 66.0% from 161 flights
- September 2023: 78.0% from 128 flights
- October 2023: 80.3% from 127 flights
- November 2023: 81.3% from 144 flights
- December 2023: 82.9% from 158 flights
- January 2024: 69.5% from 128 flights
- February 2024: 86.6% from 134 flights
- March 2024: 66.1% from 168 flights
- April 2024: 83.1% from 154 flights
- May 2024: 79.6% from 137 flights
- June 2024: 72.4% from 147 flights
- July 2024: 74.5% from 153 flights
- August 2024: too few flights to score (88)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (76)
- October 2024: 87.4% from 140 flights
- November 2024: 82.2% from 152 flights
- December 2024: 80.1% from 147 flights
- January 2025: 88.6% from 123 flights
- February 2025: 79.6% from 142 flights
- March 2025: 77.3% from 181 flights
- April 2025: 79.0% from 181 flights
- May 2025: 82.0% from 163 flights
- June 2025: 80.0% from 143 flights
- July 2025: 72.5% from 145 flights
- August 2025: too few flights to score (109)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (92)
- October 2025: 78.6% from 145 flights
- November 2025: 78.7% from 171 flights
- December 2025: 76.6% from 185 flights
- January 2026: 80.8% from 159 flights
- February 2026: 75.9% from 167 flights
- March 2026: 54.8% from 194 flights
- April 2026: 81.1% from 169 flights
- May 2026: 67.7% from 157 flights
- June 2026: 83.4% from 150 flights
- July 2026: 64.5% from 154 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.7% against 80.4% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.7 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,436 PHX → MCO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed