Route profile
MCO→PHX
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Orlando to Phoenix, 1,849 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 37% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,436 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MCO → PHX arrives on time 75.3% of the time; the return trip, PHX → MCO, arrives on time 76.7% of the time.
MCO → PHX spends 27.7 minutes on the ground on a 1,849-mile trip: 18.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 9.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at PHX.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MCO to PHX differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MCO to PHX struggles most at 6 PM: 52.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 17.2 points behind the 70.1% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 15.7 points.
MCO to PHX is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 AM: 89.7% arrive on time, 5.7 points ahead of the 84.0% those routes manage at that hour.
Sunday is the day MCO to PHX slips furthest against routes of similar length, 70.4% on time where they average 75.6%, 5.2 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 4.4 points.
In August, MCO to PHX runs 7.5 points below routes of similar length, 68.6% on time to 76.1%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.9 points.
Frontier Airlines does better on MCO to PHX than on its routes of similar length: 73.6% on time here, 67.7% there, 5.9 points apart.
MCO to PHX against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 52.9% | routes of similar length | 70.1% | −17.2 pts | 227 here, 66,656 there |
| Hour: 8 AM departures | 89.7% | routes of similar length | 84.0% | +5.7 pts | 273 here, 85,641 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 70.4% | routes of similar length | 75.6% | −5.2 pts | 845 here, 176,682 there |
| Month: August | 68.6% | routes of similar length | 76.1% | −7.5 pts | 350 here, 104,910 there |
| Airline: Frontier Airlines | 73.6% | routes of similar length | 67.7% | +5.9 pts | 774 here, 36,749 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,849 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
MCO to PHX in context
This route against MCO and PHX as a whole, against similar routes from MCO, and against its own first year, July 2023 – July 2026.
Arriving at PHX, MCO to PHX is on time 75.3% of the time, 5.5 points worse than the airport’s other arrivals at PHX (80.8%, from 587,788 flights).
MCO to PHX arrived on time 78.1% of the time in its latest twelve months (August 2025 to July 2026), 8.6 points above the 69.5% of its first twelve (July 2023 to June 2024).
Of the 5,100 flights scheduled in hours with at least 120 flights, 7 AM is the busiest hour with 1,205 (23.6%), 85.8% of them on time, and 9 PM the quietest with 152 (3.0%), 65.3% of them on time.
Airport comparisons take this route’s flights out of the airport total. Length means within 15% of this route’s distance, with at least 3 other routes from the same origin. On-time gaps are stated at 2 points and 2 standard errors, cancellation gaps at 0.5 points and 2 standard errors, and every group needs 750 flights. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
49 min late
against a median of 3 min early
Percentiles over 5,436 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at PHX after arriving from MCO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 44% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 8.2% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.4% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.72% of the time and diverts 0.35% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,378 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 49 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,436 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MCO → PHX flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 87.5% of the time, against 60.8% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 26.7 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 90.9% on time from 368 flights
- 7 AM: 85.8% on time from 1,205 flights
- 8 AM: 89.7% on time from 275 flights
- 9 AM: 77.3% on time from 269 flights
- 10 AM: 83.5% on time from 284 flights
- 11 AM: 80.0% on time from 428 flights
- 12 PM to 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 74.6% on time from 176 flights
- 3 PM: too few flights to score
- 4 PM: 65.5% on time from 167 flights
- 5 PM: 65.1% on time from 1,065 flights
- 6 PM: 52.9% on time from 236 flights
- 7 PM: 60.2% on time from 224 flights
- 8 PM: 68.6% on time from 251 flights
- 9 PM: 65.3% on time from 152 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MCO → PHX runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → PHX. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → PHX, at 40.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 87.5% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 60.8%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 2,525 | 76.0% | 0.51% | -4 min | 9.5% |
| Southwest Airlines | 2,060 | 75.9% | 0.58% | -2 min | 6.3% |
| Frontier Airlines | 785 | 73.6% | 1.15% | -5 min | 8.8% |
American Airlines flew 47.0% of the 5,370 flights listed.
American Airlines arrived on time 2.4 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 75.7%
- Feb: 81.0%
- Mar: 74.5%
- Apr: 81.7%
- May: 71.3%
- Jun: 72.5%
- Jul: 63.4%
- Aug: 68.6%
- Sep: 75.0%
- Oct: 82.4%
- Nov: 82.6%
- Dec: 76.5%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 19.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 50.3% from 163 flights
- August 2023: 69.9% from 160 flights
- September 2023: 72.4% from 129 flights
- October 2023: 81.5% from 130 flights
- November 2023: 69.0% from 145 flights
- December 2023: 68.0% from 153 flights
- January 2024: 68.0% from 128 flights
- February 2024: 77.0% from 135 flights
- March 2024: 62.5% from 169 flights
- April 2024: 79.6% from 152 flights
- May 2024: 70.5% from 132 flights
- June 2024: 70.1% from 145 flights
- July 2024: 62.7% from 152 flights
- August 2024: too few flights to score (89)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (77)
- October 2024: 92.2% from 140 flights
- November 2024: 92.1% from 152 flights
- December 2024: 82.8% from 145 flights
- January 2025: 78.9% from 123 flights
- February 2025: 88.0% from 142 flights
- March 2025: 74.9% from 191 flights
- April 2025: 90.2% from 183 flights
- May 2025: 65.8% from 162 flights
- June 2025: 67.1% from 143 flights
- July 2025: 66.9% from 144 flights
- August 2025: too few flights to score (110)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (90)
- October 2025: 74.5% from 145 flights
- November 2025: 85.8% from 171 flights
- December 2025: 78.5% from 192 flights
- January 2026: 79.7% from 157 flights
- February 2026: 78.3% from 166 flights
- March 2026: 85.0% from 193 flights
- April 2026: 74.4% from 168 flights
- May 2026: 77.6% from 156 flights
- June 2026: 80.0% from 150 flights
- July 2026: 74.3% from 154 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 78.2% against 79.2% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,436 MCO → PHX flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed