Route profile
PHX→IAD
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Phoenix to Washington, 1,956 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 91% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,102 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
PHX → IAD arrives on time 85.7% of the time; the return trip, IAD → PHX, arrives on time 81.5% of the time, a 4.2-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
PHX → IAD spends 23.9 minutes on the ground on a 1,956-mile trip: 16.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHX and 6.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at IAD.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 98% of 5,368 comparable routes.
85.6% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 85.5% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where PHX to IAD differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
PHX to IAD is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 3 PM: 91.4% arrive on time, 17.8 points ahead of the 73.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 18.7 points.
PHX to IAD holds up on Mondays better than routes of similar length do: 88.1% on time to their 77.9%, a 10.2 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 10.9 points.
January is kinder to PHX to IAD than to routes of similar length: 93.3% on time against 79.4%, 13.9 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 14.2 points.
United Airlines does better on PHX to IAD than on its routes of similar length: 87.4% on time here, 80.8% there, 6.6 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
PHX to IAD against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 3 PM departures | 91.4% | routes of similar length | 73.6% | +17.8 pts | 210 here, 50,289 there |
| Weekday: Monday | 88.1% | routes of similar length | 77.9% | +10.2 pts | 446 here, 163,397 there |
| Month: January | 93.3% | routes of similar length | 79.4% | +13.9 pts | 209 here, 76,819 there |
| Airline: United Airlines | 87.4% | routes of similar length | 80.8% | +6.6 pts | 2,296 here, 201,618 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,956 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
23 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 3,102 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at IAD after arriving from PHX.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 31% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 7.3% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 3.5% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.1% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.84% of the time and diverts 0.71% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,054 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 23 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,102 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
PHX → IAD flights departing 3–6 PM arrived on time 91.4% of the time, against 83.9% for 5–9 AM departures, a gap of 7.5 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 83.0% on time from 782 flights
- 9 AM: 87.9% on time from 569 flights
- 10 AM: 78.7% on time from 184 flights
- 11 AM: 82.0% on time from 164 flights
- 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 86.4% on time from 251 flights
- 2 PM: 84.3% on time from 166 flights
- 3 PM: 91.4% on time from 211 flights
- 4 PM to 10 PM: too few flights to score
- 11 PM: 88.5% on time from 624 flights
Why PHX → IAD runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHX → IAD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 2,335 | 87.4% | 1.07% | -9 min | 3.8% |
| Southwest Airlines | 767 | 80.7% | 0.13% | -3 min | 2.9% |
United Airlines flew 75.3% of the 3,102 flights listed.
United Airlines arrived on time 6.7 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Monday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 93.3%
- Feb: 93.1%
- Mar: 82.4%
- Apr: 86.3%
- May: 81.0%
- Jun: 87.1%
- Jul: 72.8%
- Aug: 81.1%
- Sep: 88.4%
- Oct: 90.1%
- Nov: 88.0%
- Dec: 87.8%
July is historically the weakest month and January the strongest, a spread of 20.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: too few flights to score (31)
- August 2023: too few flights to score (32)
- September 2023: too few flights to score (31)
- October 2023: too few flights to score (59)
- November 2023: too few flights to score (51)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (56)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (39)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (44)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (87)
- April 2024: too few flights to score (105)
- May 2024: too few flights to score (106)
- June 2024: too few flights to score (89)
- July 2024: too few flights to score (94)
- August 2024: too few flights to score (93)
- September 2024: too few flights to score (89)
- October 2024: too few flights to score (98)
- November 2024: too few flights to score (117)
- December 2024: 86.3% from 124 flights
- January 2025: too few flights to score (87)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (94)
- March 2025: 82.3% from 124 flights
- April 2025: 84.2% from 120 flights
- May 2025: too few flights to score (113)
- June 2025: too few flights to score (90)
- July 2025: too few flights to score (92)
- August 2025: too few flights to score (89)
- September 2025: too few flights to score (87)
- October 2025: too few flights to score (97)
- November 2025: too few flights to score (109)
- December 2025: too few flights to score (108)
- January 2026: too few flights to score (98)
- February 2026: too few flights to score (81)
- March 2026: too few flights to score (117)
- April 2026: too few flights to score (91)
- May 2026: too few flights to score (96)
- June 2026: too few flights to score (33)
- July 2026: too few flights to score (31)
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 85.6% against 85.5% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,102 PHX → IAD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed