Route profile
PHX→DCA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Phoenix to Washington, 1,979 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 88% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,362 flights. How this is calculated
PHX → DCA arrives on time 84.9% of the time; the return trip, DCA → PHX, arrives on time 85.8% of the time.
PHX → DCA spends 23.9 minutes on the ground on a 1,979-mile trip: 18.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHX and 5.7 minutes from touchdown to gate at DCA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 95% of 4,467 comparable routes.
87.1% on time on the best day (Thursday) against 83.0% on the worst (Friday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where PHX to DCA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
PHX to DCA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 12 AM: 92.7% arrive on time, 12.9 points ahead of the 79.8% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.2 points.
PHX to DCA holds up on Thursdays better than routes of similar length do: 87.1% on time to their 77.4%, a 9.7 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 10.3 points.
August is kinder to PHX to DCA than to routes of similar length: 88.6% on time against 76.4%, 12.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 12.1 points.
American Airlines does better on PHX to DCA than on its routes of similar length: 84.9% on time here, 77.9% there, 7 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 9.8 points.
PHX to DCA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 12 AM departures | 92.7% | routes of similar length | 79.8% | +12.9 pts | 313 here, 8,033 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 87.1% | routes of similar length | 77.4% | +9.7 pts | 472 here, 158,732 there |
| Month: August | 88.6% | routes of similar length | 76.4% | +12.2 pts | 273 here, 93,592 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 84.9% | routes of similar length | 77.9% | +7.0 pts | 3,300 here, 230,526 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,979 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
26 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 3,362 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DCA after arriving from PHX.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 30% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 15% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 9.1% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.0% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.4% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.07% of the time and diverts 0.77% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,300 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 26 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,362 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
PHX → DCA flights departing 9 PM–5 AM arrived on time 89.9% of the time, against 78.6% for 12–3 PM departures, a gap of 11.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM: 92.7% on time from 321 flights
- 1 AM to 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 84.8% on time from 634 flights
- 9 AM: 88.2% on time from 394 flights
- 10 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 75.3% on time from 403 flights
- 1 PM: 81.8% on time from 483 flights
- 2 PM: 77.4% on time from 233 flights
- 3 PM to 10 PM: too few flights to score
- 11 PM: 88.8% on time from 748 flights
Why PHX → DCA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHX → DCA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 3,362 | 84.9% | 1.07% | -9 min | 4.0% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA1542 American Airlines | 11:46 PM | 651 | 88.4% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Thursday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 4.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 87.7%
- Feb: 86.5%
- Mar: 76.3%
- Apr: 88.1%
- May: 84.2%
- Jun: 81.5%
- Jul: 77.8%
- Aug: 88.6%
- Sep: 88.3%
- Oct: 88.1%
- Nov: 87.2%
- Dec: 87.1%
March is historically the weakest month and August the strongest, a spread of 12.3 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 82.9% against 86.5% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.6 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,362 PHX → DCA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed