Route profile
DCA→PHX
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Washington to Phoenix, 1,979 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 80% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 3,362 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
DCA → PHX arrives on time 85.8% of the time; the return trip, PHX → DCA, arrives on time 84.9% of the time.
DCA → PHX spends 30.3 minutes on the ground on a 1,979-mile trip: 22.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DCA and 8.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at PHX.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 97% of 4,467 comparable routes.
87.3% on time on the best day (Saturday) against 83.7% on the worst (Wednesday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where DCA to PHX differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
DCA to PHX is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 10 AM: 87.3% arrive on time, 8.1 points ahead of the 79.2% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 4.6 points.
DCA to PHX holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 86.5% on time to their 75.8%, a 10.7 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 11.7 points.
March is kinder to DCA to PHX than to routes of similar length: 91.0% on time against 78.8%, 12.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 13.1 points.
American Airlines does better on DCA to PHX than on its routes of similar length: 85.8% on time here, 77.9% there, 7.9 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 10.7 points.
DCA to PHX against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 10 AM departures | 87.3% | routes of similar length | 79.2% | +8.1 pts | 1,048 here, 64,761 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 86.5% | routes of similar length | 75.8% | +10.7 pts | 475 here, 158,379 there |
| Month: March | 91.0% | routes of similar length | 78.8% | +12.2 pts | 277 here, 86,751 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 85.8% | routes of similar length | 77.9% | +7.9 pts | 3,310 here, 230,516 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,979 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
24 min late
against a median of 12 min early
Percentiles over 3,362 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at PHX after arriving from DCA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 27% | High risk |
| 45 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 8.3% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.8% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 3.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.04% of the time and diverts 0.51% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 3,310 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 24 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 3,362 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
DCA → PHX flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.2% of the time, against 80.2% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 10.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 90.2% on time from 1,126 flights
- 8 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 87.3% on time from 1,063 flights
- 11 AM to 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 80.4% on time from 974 flights
- 6 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why DCA → PHX runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DCA → PHX. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DCA → PHX, at 46.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.2% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 80.2%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 3,362 | 85.8% | 1.04% | -12 min | 4.9% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA1218 American Airlines | 10:20 AM | 1,096 | 87.1% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Wednesday the least, a gap of 3.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.5%
- Feb: 86.5%
- Mar: 91.0%
- Apr: 84.3%
- May: 82.3%
- Jun: 84.7%
- Jul: 80.4%
- Aug: 86.0%
- Sep: 88.0%
- Oct: 87.7%
- Nov: 85.9%
- Dec: 91.5%
July is historically the weakest month and December the strongest, a spread of 11.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 82.7% against 86.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.0 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 3,362 DCA → PHX flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed