Route profile
PHL→TPA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Philadelphia to Tampa, 920 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 13% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 8,234 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
PHL → TPA arrives on time 74.0% of the time; the return trip, TPA → PHL, arrives on time 75.6% of the time.
PHL → TPA spends 28.5 minutes on the ground on a 920-mile trip: 21.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHL and 7.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at TPA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 93% of 5,368 comparable routes.
72.9% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 72.5% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where PHL to TPA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
PHL to TPA struggles most at 7 PM: 57.7% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 9.5 points behind the 67.2% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.1 points.
PHL to TPA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 75.8% arrive on time, 9 points ahead of the 66.8% those routes manage at that hour.
Thursday is the day PHL to TPA slips furthest against routes of similar length, 71.4% on time where they average 76.5%, 5.1 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 5.4 points.
In December, PHL to TPA runs 9 points below routes of similar length, 69.6% on time to 78.6%. Against all other routes the gap is 9.2 points.
Frontier Airlines’ flights on PHL to TPA arrive on time 70.2% of the time, 3 points below the 73.2% it manages on its routes of similar length.
PHL to TPA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 57.7% | routes of similar length | 67.2% | −9.5 pts | 613 here, 178,311 there |
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 75.8% | routes of similar length | 66.8% | +9.0 pts | 124 here, 137,975 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 71.4% | routes of similar length | 76.5% | −5.1 pts | 1,160 here, 418,153 there |
| Month: December | 69.6% | routes of similar length | 78.6% | −9.0 pts | 671 here, 234,744 there |
| Airline: Frontier Airlines | 70.2% | routes of similar length | 73.2% | −3.0 pts | 2,543 here, 157,534 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 920 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why PHL → TPA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
PHL → TPA cancelled 172 of 8,234 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 48. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 79.1% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 61 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 172 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
136 cancellations, 79.1% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
35 cancellations, 20.3% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
1 cancellation, 0.6% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
172 coded cancellations were recorded on PHL → TPA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
66 min late
against a median of 6 min early
PHL → TPA has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 72 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 8,234 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at TPA after arriving from PHL.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 18% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.0% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.09% of the time and diverts 0.27% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,040 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 66 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 8,234 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
PHL → TPA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 83.9% of the time, against 62.3% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 21.6 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 86.2% on time from 275 flights
- 6 AM: 86.7% on time from 765 flights
- 7 AM: 87.0% on time from 400 flights
- 8 AM: 80.4% on time from 1,135 flights
- 9 AM: 78.9% on time from 290 flights
- 10 AM: 81.6% on time from 439 flights
- 11 AM: 76.4% on time from 833 flights
- 12 PM: 75.0% on time from 330 flights
- 1 PM: 73.1% on time from 620 flights
- 2 PM: 66.4% on time from 545 flights
- 3 PM: 67.4% on time from 294 flights
- 4 PM: 66.2% on time from 144 flights
- 5 PM: 60.9% on time from 272 flights
- 6 PM: 63.5% on time from 995 flights
- 7 PM: 57.7% on time from 628 flights
- 8 PM: 75.8% on time from 126 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why PHL → TPA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHL → TPA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on PHL → TPA, at 48.4%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 83.9% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 62.3%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 5,002 | 75.9% | 1.86% | -6 min | 10.1% |
| Frontier Airlines | 2,619 | 70.2% | 2.79% | -6 min | 13.6% |
| Southwest Airlines | 400 | 75.3% | 1.00% | -2 min | 7.1% |
| Spirit Airlines | 213 | 73.5% | 0.94% | -6 min | 10.0% |
American Airlines flew 60.7% of the 8,234 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 2.79% of its flights here against 0.94% for Spirit Airlines.
American Airlines arrived on time 5.7 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 70.7%
- Feb: 77.9%
- Mar: 75.7%
- Apr: 78.2%
- May: 73.6%
- Jun: 72.6%
- Jul: 63.7%
- Aug: 67.7%
- Sep: 78.2%
- Oct: 79.4%
- Nov: 80.3%
- Dec: 69.6%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 16.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 58.7% from 192 flights
- August 2023: 76.7% from 217 flights
- September 2023: 79.4% from 212 flights
- October 2023: 84.3% from 225 flights
- November 2023: 83.6% from 233 flights
- December 2023: 73.9% from 261 flights
- January 2024: 72.3% from 246 flights
- February 2024: 84.8% from 230 flights
- March 2024: 76.1% from 287 flights
- April 2024: 83.0% from 237 flights
- May 2024: 74.4% from 223 flights
- June 2024: 75.8% from 189 flights
- July 2024: 61.8% from 184 flights
- August 2024: 61.2% from 213 flights
- September 2024: 72.6% from 198 flights
- October 2024: 79.3% from 214 flights
- November 2024: 81.4% from 210 flights
- December 2024: 72.5% from 205 flights
- January 2025: 67.5% from 198 flights
- February 2025: 71.2% from 202 flights
- March 2025: 79.6% from 302 flights
- April 2025: 76.3% from 314 flights
- May 2025: 64.9% from 234 flights
- June 2025: 69.5% from 177 flights
- July 2025: 68.6% from 179 flights
- August 2025: 65.0% from 202 flights
- September 2025: 83.0% from 172 flights
- October 2025: 74.3% from 203 flights
- November 2025: 75.4% from 201 flights
- December 2025: 61.2% from 211 flights
- January 2026: 72.1% from 199 flights
- February 2026: 76.9% from 244 flights
- March 2026: 71.6% from 317 flights
- April 2026: 76.1% from 253 flights
- May 2026: 81.8% from 228 flights
- June 2026: 72.3% from 207 flights
- July 2026: 65.9% from 215 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 72.9% against 72.5% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 8,234 PHL → TPA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed