Route profile
PHL→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Philadelphia to Minneapolis, 980 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 30% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,872 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
PHL → MSP arrives on time 80.0% of the time; the return trip, MSP → PHL, arrives on time 80.3% of the time.
PHL → MSP spends 26.5 minutes on the ground on a 980-mile trip: 20.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHL and 6.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 97% of 5,368 comparable routes.
78.8% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 78.6% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where PHL to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
PHL to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 3 PM: 80.7% arrive on time, 10.4 points ahead of the 70.3% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8 points.
PHL to MSP holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 79.8% on time to their 73.7%, a 6.1 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 5 points.
May is kinder to PHL to MSP than to routes of similar length: 83.2% on time against 74.5%, 8.7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 8 points.
PSA Airlines does better on PHL to MSP than on its routes of similar length: 78.6% on time here, 74.5% there, 4.1 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 2.9 points.
PHL to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 3 PM departures | 80.7% | routes of similar length | 70.3% | +10.4 pts | 461 here, 190,641 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 79.8% | routes of similar length | 73.7% | +6.1 pts | 821 here, 461,523 there |
| Month: May | 83.2% | routes of similar length | 74.5% | +8.7 pts | 566 here, 260,628 there |
| Airline: PSA Airlines | 78.6% | routes of similar length | 74.5% | +4.1 pts | 1,112 here, 18,433 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 980 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why PHL → MSP flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
PHL → MSP cancelled 131 of 5,872 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 45. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 56.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 79 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 131 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
74 cancellations, 56.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
46 cancellations, 35.1% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
11 cancellations, 8.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
131 coded cancellations were recorded on PHL → MSP; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
50 min late
against a median of 10 min early
PHL → MSP has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 10 min early, but the worst tenth are 60 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 5,872 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from PHL.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 32% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 19% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 8.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.9% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.23% of the time and diverts 0.19% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,730 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 50 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,872 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
PHL → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.5% of the time, against 65.5% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 26.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 92.5% on time from 122 flights
- 6 AM: 91.4% on time from 1,015 flights
- 7 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 87.9% on time from 525 flights
- 11 AM: 84.8% on time from 1,329 flights
- 12 PM to 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 82.0% on time from 233 flights
- 3 PM: 80.7% on time from 469 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 75.0% on time from 211 flights
- 6 PM: 66.9% on time from 809 flights
- 7 PM: 64.1% on time from 621 flights
- 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 68.7% on time from 129 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why PHL → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHL → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,680 | 83.5% | 1.52% | -12 min | 7.0% |
| PSA Airlines | 1,170 | 78.6% | 4.79% | -9 min | 9.1% |
| American Airlines | 727 | 71.7% | 1.93% | -5 min | 13.2% |
Delta Air Lines flew 66.0% of the 5,577 flights listed. PSA Airlines cancelled 4.79% of its flights here against 1.52% for Delta Air Lines.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 11.8 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL2791 Delta Air Lines | 6:00 AM | 785 | 89.8% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 7.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 81.9%
- Feb: 84.7%
- Mar: 83.8%
- Apr: 81.4%
- May: 83.2%
- Jun: 73.6%
- Jul: 68.4%
- Aug: 73.4%
- Sep: 87.6%
- Oct: 89.6%
- Nov: 83.7%
- Dec: 77.5%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 21.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 76.2% from 172 flights
- August 2023: 80.5% from 154 flights
- September 2023: 92.5% from 147 flights
- October 2023: 97.7% from 128 flights
- November 2023: too few flights to score (117)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (118)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (99)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- April 2024: 84.9% from 152 flights
- May 2024: 84.0% from 188 flights
- June 2024: 64.1% from 200 flights
- July 2024: 65.8% from 204 flights
- August 2024: 67.4% from 194 flights
- September 2024: 88.6% from 175 flights
- October 2024: 90.0% from 172 flights
- November 2024: 90.2% from 165 flights
- December 2024: 75.3% from 146 flights
- January 2025: too few flights to score (118)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- March 2025: 84.2% from 149 flights
- April 2025: 77.3% from 163 flights
- May 2025: 77.7% from 179 flights
- June 2025: 72.3% from 168 flights
- July 2025: 62.0% from 168 flights
- August 2025: 73.5% from 170 flights
- September 2025: 82.1% from 162 flights
- October 2025: 83.8% from 192 flights
- November 2025: 74.8% from 161 flights
- December 2025: 63.6% from 149 flights
- January 2026: 82.0% from 141 flights
- February 2026: 82.0% from 132 flights
- March 2026: 76.6% from 151 flights
- April 2026: 82.1% from 188 flights
- May 2026: 87.2% from 209 flights
- June 2026: 84.5% from 200 flights
- July 2026: 69.9% from 196 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 78.8% against 78.6% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,872 PHL → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed