Route profile
MSP→PHL
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Philadelphia, 980 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 40% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,871 flights. How this is calculated
MSP → PHL arrives on time 80.3% of the time; the return trip, PHL → MSP, arrives on time 80.0% of the time.
MSP → PHL spends 25.6 minutes on the ground on a 980-mile trip: 18.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 7.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at PHL.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 95% of 5,368 comparable routes.
79.7% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 79.4% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to PHL differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to PHL is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 78.3% arrive on time, 12.1 points ahead of the 66.2% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.9 points.
MSP to PHL struggles most at 5 AM: 80.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 11.5 points behind the 91.6% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.1 points.
MSP to PHL holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 80.2% on time to their 73.7%, a 6.5 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 5.4 points.
May is kinder to MSP to PHL than to routes of similar length: 81.6% on time against 74.5%, 7.1 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.4 points.
PSA Airlines does better on MSP to PHL than on its routes of similar length: 78.6% on time here, 74.5% there, 4.1 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 2.9 points.
MSP to PHL against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 78.3% | routes of similar length | 66.2% | +12.1 pts | 931 here, 156,367 there |
| Hour: 5 AM departures | 80.1% | routes of similar length | 91.6% | −11.5 pts | 136 here, 109,767 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 80.2% | routes of similar length | 73.7% | +6.5 pts | 822 here, 461,522 there |
| Month: May | 81.6% | routes of similar length | 74.5% | +7.1 pts | 566 here, 260,628 there |
| Airline: PSA Airlines | 78.6% | routes of similar length | 74.5% | +4.1 pts | 1,117 here, 18,428 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 980 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MSP → PHL flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MSP → PHL cancelled 120 of 5,871 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 49. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 57.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 85 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 120 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
69 cancellations, 57.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
43 cancellations, 35.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
8 cancellations, 6.7% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
120 coded cancellations were recorded on MSP → PHL; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
44 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 5,871 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at PHL after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 32% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 19% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.5% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.04% of the time and diverts 0.29% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,734 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 44 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,871 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → PHL flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.1% of the time, against 66.4% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 21.7 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 80.1% on time from 144 flights
- 6 AM: 87.4% on time from 746 flights
- 7 AM: 89.9% on time from 829 flights
- 8 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 87.3% on time from 549 flights
- 11 AM: 84.6% on time from 123 flights
- 12 PM: 75.6% on time from 187 flights
- 1 PM: 77.8% on time from 1,082 flights
- 2 PM: 71.5% on time from 818 flights
- 3 PM to 6 PM: too few flights to score
- 7 PM: 73.7% on time from 201 flights
- 8 PM: 78.3% on time from 943 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSP → PHL runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → PHL. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,680 | 82.6% | 1.41% | -9 min | 5.9% |
| PSA Airlines | 1,169 | 78.6% | 4.28% | -10 min | 8.6% |
| American Airlines | 727 | 76.1% | 1.93% | -7 min | 11.4% |
Delta Air Lines flew 66.0% of the 5,576 flights listed. PSA Airlines cancelled 4.28% of its flights here against 1.41% for Delta Air Lines.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 6.5 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 7.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 78.1%
- Feb: 83.3%
- Mar: 82.5%
- Apr: 85.2%
- May: 81.6%
- Jun: 75.9%
- Jul: 71.9%
- Aug: 75.3%
- Sep: 85.3%
- Oct: 86.9%
- Nov: 86.7%
- Dec: 76.2%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 15.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 79.8% from 171 flights
- August 2023: 81.8% from 155 flights
- September 2023: 83.7% from 147 flights
- October 2023: 91.4% from 128 flights
- November 2023: too few flights to score (117)
- December 2023: too few flights to score (118)
- January 2024: too few flights to score (110)
- February 2024: too few flights to score (99)
- March 2024: too few flights to score (119)
- April 2024: 84.8% from 151 flights
- May 2024: 78.7% from 188 flights
- June 2024: 68.4% from 200 flights
- July 2024: 68.9% from 204 flights
- August 2024: 66.8% from 194 flights
- September 2024: 88.6% from 175 flights
- October 2024: 90.0% from 172 flights
- November 2024: 84.2% from 165 flights
- December 2024: 69.9% from 147 flights
- January 2025: too few flights to score (118)
- February 2025: too few flights to score (116)
- March 2025: 82.1% from 149 flights
- April 2025: 87.1% from 163 flights
- May 2025: 80.6% from 179 flights
- June 2025: 75.4% from 168 flights
- July 2025: 70.1% from 168 flights
- August 2025: 78.6% from 170 flights
- September 2025: 83.3% from 162 flights
- October 2025: 81.2% from 192 flights
- November 2025: 84.4% from 161 flights
- December 2025: 68.6% from 149 flights
- January 2026: 73.4% from 140 flights
- February 2026: 82.9% from 132 flights
- March 2026: 79.0% from 151 flights
- April 2026: 83.8% from 188 flights
- May 2026: 85.2% from 209 flights
- June 2026: 84.0% from 200 flights
- July 2026: 69.7% from 196 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 79.7% against 79.4% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,871 MSP → PHL flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed