ORD → MCO Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · ORDNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:51 UTC

Chicago airport profile →

Destination · MCONo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Orlando airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

56/ 100Fair

Better than 27% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 17,133 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

75.3%

12,661 of 16,807

Cancellation rate

1.48%

253 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-6 min

Average 10.1 min

Severe delays

9.8%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

75 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

17,133

5 carriers

ORD → MCO arrives on time 75.3% of the time; the return trip, MCO → ORD, arrives on time 73.8% of the time.

ORD → MCO spends 32.9 minutes on the ground on a 1,005-mile trip: 23.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at ORD and 9.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at MCO.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

Why ORD → MCO flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

ORD → MCO cancelled 253 of 17,133 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 68. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 53.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 126 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather53.8%

Airline31.6%

Air traffic14.6%

Security0.0%

Of 253 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 126

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

136 cancellations, 53.8% of the total.

The airline1 in 214

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

80 cancellations, 31.6% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 463

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

37 cancellations, 14.6% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

253 coded cancellations were recorded on ORD → MCO; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

58 min late

against a median of 6 min early

Arrived an hour or more late9.8%

Typical delay when late75 min

Cancelled1.48%

Landed somewhere else0.43%

ORD → MCO has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 64 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 17,133 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at MCO after arriving from ORD.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, ORD → MCO arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	38%	Likely to miss
45 min	24%	High risk
60 min	17%	High risk
90 min	9.6%	Some risk
120 min	6.2%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.48% of the time and diverts 0.43% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 16,807 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 58 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 17,133 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

ORD → MCO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 87.3% of the time, against 62.0% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 25.3 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (ORD).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 9.0 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.4 points.

On-time arrival rate for ORD to MCO by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM and after 8 PM (624 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for ORD to MCO. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	88.5% on time231 flights	91.2% on time173 flights	89.5% on time156 flights	90.5% on time222 flights	91.4% on time224 flights	88.7% on time224 flights	84.0% on time240 flights
7 AM–8 AM	90.2% on time258 flights	88.4% on time227 flights	88.2% on time232 flights	86.5% on time254 flights	86.3% on time266 flights	88.7% on time278 flights	90.3% on time264 flights
8 AM–9 AM	88.6% on time126 flights	88.9% on time127 flights	82.6% on time134 flights	118 flights, too few to score	80.2% on time129 flights	79.1% on time131 flights	73.1% on time130 flights
9 AM–10 AM	82.7% on time229 flights	84.7% on time218 flights	83.6% on time210 flights	82.7% on time225 flights	73.7% on time222 flights	75.0% on time249 flights	79.6% on time209 flights
10 AM–11 AM	73.8% on time131 flights	119 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score	117 flights, too few to score	73.7% on time142 flights	73.4% on time130 flights	116 flights, too few to score
11 AM–12 PM	78.3% on time207 flights	81.2% on time209 flights	69.8% on time206 flights	80.2% on time215 flights	71.5% on time205 flights	71.3% on time200 flights	71.4% on time226 flights
12 PM–1 PM	77.3% on time139 flights	73.4% on time140 flights	73.9% on time123 flights	78.3% on time141 flights	68.4% on time157 flights	76.1% on time146 flights	64.5% on time123 flights
1 PM–2 PM	72.1% on time176 flights	78.0% on time161 flights	75.8% on time161 flights	72.2% on time190 flights	72.8% on time171 flights	74.0% on time184 flights	75.7% on time209 flights
2 PM–3 PM	74.5% on time206 flights	79.5% on time180 flights	77.8% on time184 flights	78.2% on time202 flights	70.0% on time205 flights	68.5% on time187 flights	67.2% on time204 flights
3 PM–4 PM	81 flights, too few to score	74 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	76 flights, too few to score	91 flights, too few to score	81 flights, too few to score	67 flights, too few to score
4 PM–5 PM	55.6% on time129 flights	83 flights, too few to score	89 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score	119 flights, too few to score	95 flights, too few to score	57.6% on time128 flights
5 PM–6 PM	69.4% on time221 flights	68.5% on time208 flights	68.8% on time197 flights	71.8% on time224 flights	62.9% on time224 flights	75.2% on time212 flights	64.0% on time232 flights
6 PM–7 PM	61.2% on time182 flights	65.1% on time167 flights	63.1% on time181 flights	63.9% on time193 flights	59.4% on time183 flights	66.2% on time206 flights	58.7% on time201 flights
7 PM–8 PM	117 flights, too few to score	77 flights, too few to score	96 flights, too few to score	59.0% on time120 flights	112 flights, too few to score	119 flights, too few to score	54.7% on time121 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM87.3%

9 AM–12 PM76.7%

12–3 PM73.7%

3–6 PM67.7%

6–9 PM62.0%

9 PM–5 AM—

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.

Why ORD → MCO runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft43.0%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

Air traffic control26.5%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

The airline25.3%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Weather5.1%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for ORD → MCO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on ORD → MCO, at 43.0%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 87.3% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 62.0%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

The harder-hit end is the one the flight leaves from, where a cancellation keeps it from departing at all. Bad weather cancels 5.5 times the normal rate at ORD against 3.2 times at MCO. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: ORD 6.5% against 1.2%, MCO 4.0% against 1.3%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from ORD and MCO in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	ORD	MCO
Cancelled in bad weather	6.5%	4.0%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.2%	1.3%
Arrived on time, bad weather	55.7%	54.1%
Arrived on time, normal hours	77.1%	76.3%
Departures in bad weather	104,455	33,297

United Airlines (3.5% cancelled against 7.4% for the other carriers at ORD) and American Airlines (5.4% cancelled against 6.7% for the other carriers at ORD) cancelled fewer departures from ORD in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly worse.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at ORD

All departures from ORD

Cancellation rates in bad weather at ORD for the airlines that fly ORD to MCO, against the other carriers at ORD in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
United Airlines	31,269	3.5%below the others	7.4%
Frontier Airlines	1,047	6.0%about level	7.5%
American Airlines	17,789	5.4%below the others	6.7%
Southwest Airlines	2,055	4.2%about level	5.1%
Spirit Airlines	2,378	4.8%about level	5.5%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from ORD and MCO, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from ORD on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: ORD (airlines), MCO, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
United Airlines	6,937	80.8%	1.10%	-8 min	7.0%
American Airlines	5,138	69.6%	1.54%	-3 min	12.9%
Spirit Airlines	2,127	75.9%	1.97%	-9 min	10.5%
Southwest Airlines	1,793	75.0%	1.39%	-4 min	7.2%
Frontier Airlines	1,138	67.1%	2.72%	-6 min	15.8%

United Airlines flew 40.5% of the 17,133 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 2.72% of its flights here against 1.10% for United Airlines.

United Airlines arrived on time 13.7 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon76.1%

Tue79.2%

Wed76.4%

Thu76.9%

Fri72.5%

Sat75.3%

Sun71.6%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.6 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 16.9 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 72.9% against 78.4% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.5 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 17,133 ORD → MCO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

ORD airport MCO airport Return direction MCO → ORD

ORD→MCO

Right now

Route reliability

Why ORD → MCO flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why ORD → MCO runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at ORD

Airlines on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology