Route profile
MCO→ORD
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Orlando to Chicago, 1,005 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 17% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 17,117 flights. How this is calculated
MCO → ORD arrives on time 73.8% of the time; the return trip, ORD → MCO, arrives on time 75.3% of the time.
MCO → ORD spends 36.3 minutes on the ground on a 1,005-mile trip: 19.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 17.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at ORD.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 95% of 4,023 comparable routes.
87.3% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 54.0% for 3–6 PM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
Why MCO → ORD flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MCO → ORD cancelled 268 of 17,117 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 64. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 50.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 126 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 268 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
136 cancellations, 50.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
92 cancellations, 34.3% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
40 cancellations, 14.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
268 coded cancellations were recorded on MCO → ORD; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
62 min late
against a median of 4 min early
MCO → ORD has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth are 66 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 17,117 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at ORD after arriving from MCO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 42% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 18% | High risk |
| 90 min | 10% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.7% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.57% of the time and diverts 0.45% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 16,772 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 62 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 17,117 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MCO → ORD flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 87.3% of the time, against 54.0% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 33.3 percentage points.
By day and hour
On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (MCO).
Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 13.3 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 3.1 points.
| Hour | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
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On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time
- 40–49
- 50–59
- 60–69
- 70–79
- 80–89
- 90–99
- Fewer than 120 flights, not scored
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.
No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM and after 8 PM (1,098 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.
View as tableHide table
| Hour | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 AM–7 AM | 88.0% on time127 flights | 101 flights, too few to score | 100 flights, too few to score | 106 flights, too few to score | 87.4% on time128 flights | 87.0% on time156 flights | 116 flights, too few to score |
| 7 AM–8 AM | 86.0% on time287 flights | 86.0% on time197 flights | 89.9% on time210 flights | 90.0% on time275 flights | 84.7% on time298 flights | 87.1% on time305 flights | 86.4% on time273 flights |
| 8 AM–9 AM | 71 flights, too few to score | 81 flights, too few to score | 78 flights, too few to score | 79 flights, too few to score | 72 flights, too few to score | 81 flights, too few to score | 69 flights, too few to score |
| 9 AM–10 AM | 91.0% on time224 flights | 89.5% on time212 flights | 91.1% on time210 flights | 88.0% on time218 flights | 86.0% on time225 flights | 90.7% on time207 flights | 81.2% on time210 flights |
| 10 AM–11 AM | 86.9% on time150 flights | 92.1% on time156 flights | 89.6% on time148 flights | 90.2% on time166 flights | 82.3% on time151 flights | 88.2% on time153 flights | 80.5% on time163 flights |
| 11 AM–12 PM | 87.4% on time145 flights | 83.7% on time141 flights | 89.1% on time148 flights | 83.8% on time138 flights | 78.9% on time155 flights | 86.2% on time147 flights | 83.2% on time175 flights |
| 12 PM–1 PM | 80.4% on time197 flights | 82.8% on time188 flights | 86.2% on time198 flights | 84.0% on time198 flights | 74.5% on time190 flights | 79.3% on time203 flights | 82.8% on time194 flights |
| 1 PM–2 PM | 101 flights, too few to score | 84 flights, too few to score | 87 flights, too few to score | 92 flights, too few to score | 93 flights, too few to score | 114 flights, too few to score | 98 flights, too few to score |
| 2 PM–3 PM | 72.0% on time235 flights | 79.7% on time224 flights | 78.8% on time230 flights | 72.7% on time236 flights | 66.1% on time230 flights | 64.8% on time225 flights | 68.9% on time213 flights |
| 3 PM–4 PM | 90 flights, too few to score | 87 flights, too few to score | 74 flights, too few to score | 96 flights, too few to score | 82 flights, too few to score | 78 flights, too few to score | 98 flights, too few to score |
| 4 PM–5 PM | 55.5% on time226 flights | 60.5% on time231 flights | 53.1% on time249 flights | 56.4% on time235 flights | 47.1% on time229 flights | 43.4% on time265 flights | 45.7% on time259 flights |
| 5 PM–6 PM | 54.8% on time169 flights | 62.5% on time130 flights | 54.8% on time137 flights | 53.8% on time162 flights | 52.5% on time187 flights | 50.3% on time146 flights | 52.9% on time177 flights |
| 6 PM–7 PM | 66.5% on time184 flights | 68.8% on time160 flights | 70.1% on time150 flights | 59.6% on time203 flights | 61.9% on time184 flights | 65.6% on time196 flights | 56.1% on time233 flights |
| 7 PM–8 PM | 60.8% on time124 flights | 95 flights, too few to score | 93 flights, too few to score | 64.5% on time131 flights | 61.5% on time128 flights | 57.5% on time121 flights | 51.2% on time128 flights |
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 87.9% on time from 834 flights
- 7 AM: 87.1% on time from 1,845 flights
- 8 AM: 87.4% on time from 531 flights
- 9 AM: 88.2% on time from 1,506 flights
- 10 AM: 87.1% on time from 1,087 flights
- 11 AM: 84.6% on time from 1,049 flights
- 12 PM: 81.4% on time from 1,368 flights
- 1 PM: 72.1% on time from 669 flights
- 2 PM: 71.9% on time from 1,593 flights
- 3 PM: 60.7% on time from 605 flights
- 4 PM: 51.4% on time from 1,694 flights
- 5 PM: 54.3% on time from 1,108 flights
- 6 PM: 63.5% on time from 1,310 flights
- 7 PM: 60.8% on time from 820 flights
- 8 PM: 71.9% on time from 352 flights
- 9 PM: 63.8% on time from 479 flights
- 10 PM: 63.3% on time from 191 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MCO → ORD runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → ORD, at 38.5%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 87.3% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 54.0%.
How this route holds up in bad weather
July 2023 – July 2026
The harder-hit end is ORD, where the flight lands. Its figure counts departures from ORD, so it says more about how that airport copes than about this route. Bad weather cancels 5.5 times the normal rate at ORD against 3.2 times at MCO. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: MCO 4.0% against 1.3%, ORD 6.5% against 1.2%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.
Bad weather and normal hours at the airports
Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026| Departures from | MCO | ORD |
|---|---|---|
| Cancelled in bad weather | 4.0% | 6.5% |
| Cancelled in normal hours | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| Arrived on time, bad weather | 54.1% | 55.7% |
| Arrived on time, normal hours | 76.3% | 77.1% |
| Departures in bad weather | 33,297 | 104,455 |
Of the carriers on this route, Southwest Airlines (3.3% cancelled against 4.4% for the other carriers at MCO) cancelled the fewest departures from MCO in bad weather and Spirit Airlines (5.7% cancelled against 3.9% for the other carriers at MCO) the most.
This route’s airlines in bad weather at MCO
All departures from MCO| Airline | Bad-weather departures | Cancelled | Other carriers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 9,331 | 3.3%below the others | 4.4% |
| United Airlines | 2,988 | 3.3%below the others | 4.2% |
| American Airlines | 4,024 | 4.6%above the others | 3.9% |
| Frontier Airlines | 3,840 | 4.7%above the others | 3.9% |
| Spirit Airlines | 4,014 | 5.7%above the others | 3.9% |
These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from MCO and ORD, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from MCO on every route.
Weather source and limits. In full: MCO (airlines), ORD, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 6,934 | 78.2% | 1.41% | -5 min | 7.6% |
| American Airlines | 5,139 | 73.0% | 1.58% | -5 min | 12.4% |
| Spirit Airlines | 2,132 | 65.3% | 2.30% | 0 min | 14.5% |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,771 | 71.3% | 1.13% | -1 min | 10.0% |
| Frontier Airlines | 1,141 | 69.7% | 1.75% | -4 min | 13.4% |
United Airlines flew 40.5% of the 17,117 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 2.30% of its flights here against 1.13% for Southwest Airlines.
United Airlines arrived on time 12.9 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| UA2475 United Airlines | 12:30 PM | 995 | 84.7% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 74.9%
- Feb: 78.0%
- Mar: 69.1%
- Apr: 76.1%
- May: 71.2%
- Jun: 72.9%
- Jul: 64.3%
- Aug: 67.0%
- Sep: 80.8%
- Oct: 82.1%
- Nov: 79.7%
- Dec: 73.7%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 17.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 59.1% from 451 flights
- August 2023: 68.3% from 430 flights
- September 2023: 76.4% from 373 flights
- October 2023: 84.1% from 448 flights
- November 2023: 81.6% from 428 flights
- December 2023: 76.7% from 462 flights
- January 2024: 71.1% from 462 flights
- February 2024: 83.5% from 440 flights
- March 2024: 73.3% from 542 flights
- April 2024: 78.5% from 498 flights
- May 2024: 67.7% from 434 flights
- June 2024: 69.9% from 396 flights
- July 2024: 64.3% from 394 flights
- August 2024: 67.8% from 369 flights
- September 2024: 80.5% from 320 flights
- October 2024: 92.3% from 352 flights
- November 2024: 83.1% from 355 flights
- December 2024: 80.1% from 424 flights
- January 2025: 82.5% from 420 flights
- February 2025: 82.0% from 389 flights
- March 2025: 76.4% from 482 flights
- April 2025: 80.8% from 480 flights
- May 2025: 71.6% from 478 flights
- June 2025: 72.9% from 502 flights
- July 2025: 64.3% from 512 flights
- August 2025: 65.4% from 494 flights
- September 2025: 84.6% from 456 flights
- October 2025: 74.2% from 533 flights
- November 2025: 75.7% from 506 flights
- December 2025: 66.3% from 553 flights
- January 2026: 71.9% from 539 flights
- February 2026: 70.7% from 553 flights
- March 2026: 60.2% from 689 flights
- April 2026: 69.8% from 582 flights
- May 2026: 73.7% from 503 flights
- June 2026: 75.8% from 430 flights
- July 2026: 69.6% from 438 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 71.0% against 77.3% in the 12 months before — declining by 6.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 17,117 MCO → ORD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed