DCA → ORD Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · DCANo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:52 UTC

Washington airport profile →

Destination · ORDNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:51 UTC

Chicago airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

55/ 100Fair

Better than 23% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 20,170 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

79.0%

15,501 of 19,629

Cancellation rate

2.47%

499 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-8 min

Average 8.9 min

Severe delays

9.0%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

89 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

20,170

4 carriers

DCA → ORD arrives on time 79.0% of the time; the return trip, ORD → DCA, arrives on time 73.0% of the time, a 6.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

DCA → ORD spends 35.7 minutes on the ground on a 612-mile trip: 19.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DCA and 16.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at ORD.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

Why DCA → ORD flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

DCA → ORD cancelled 499 of 20,170 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 40. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 69.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 58 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather69.7%

Airline18.6%

Air traffic11.6%

Security0.0%

Of 499 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 58

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

348 cancellations, 69.7% of the total.

The airline1 in 217

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

93 cancellations, 18.6% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 348

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

58 cancellations, 11.6% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

499 coded cancellations were recorded on DCA → ORD; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

51 min late

against a median of 8 min early

Arrived an hour or more late9.0%

Typical delay when late89 min

Cancelled2.47%

Landed somewhere else0.21%

Percentiles over 20,170 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at ORD after arriving from DCA.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, DCA → ORD arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	34%	Likely to miss
45 min	20%	High risk
60 min	14%	Some risk
90 min	8.9%	Some risk
120 min	6.1%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.47% of the time and diverts 0.21% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 19,629 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 51 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 20,170 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

DCA → ORD flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.2% of the time, against 65.7% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 24.5 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (DCA).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 10.9 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.3 points.

On-time arrival rate for DCA to ORD by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM and after 9 PM (384 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for DCA to ORD. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	93.1% on time342 flights	94.4% on time350 flights	89.6% on time343 flights	94.3% on time340 flights	87.9% on time337 flights	92.5% on time268 flights	91.5% on time266 flights
7 AM–8 AM	89.6% on time208 flights	89.3% on time205 flights	91.9% on time203 flights	90.7% on time209 flights	86.0% on time206 flights	85.8% on time210 flights	87.1% on time255 flights
8 AM–9 AM	89.8% on time169 flights	91.0% on time170 flights	91.5% on time170 flights	88.7% on time172 flights	89.1% on time167 flights	85 flights, too few to score	82.8% on time161 flights
9 AM–10 AM	85.5% on time199 flights	79.0% on time198 flights	81.9% on time199 flights	85.6% on time197 flights	78.4% on time200 flights	82.1% on time162 flights	85.3% on time193 flights
10 AM–11 AM	89.6% on time204 flights	89.2% on time205 flights	88.9% on time203 flights	94.4% on time203 flights	89.7% on time202 flights	92.6% on time205 flights	90.7% on time198 flights
11 AM–12 PM	86.2% on time182 flights	88.7% on time178 flights	87.6% on time177 flights	87.3% on time176 flights	82.4% on time177 flights	82.8% on time126 flights	83.4% on time178 flights
12 PM–1 PM	85.6% on time158 flights	86.1% on time160 flights	85.4% on time161 flights	91.1% on time160 flights	81.5% on time159 flights	80 flights, too few to score	89.4% on time165 flights
1 PM–2 PM	83.0% on time200 flights	80.6% on time200 flights	78.9% on time199 flights	79.2% on time199 flights	78.4% on time199 flights	84.0% on time133 flights	79.1% on time189 flights
2 PM–3 PM	77.7% on time212 flights	84.6% on time211 flights	74.6% on time210 flights	78.8% on time206 flights	72.0% on time209 flights	80.7% on time143 flights	76.7% on time218 flights
3 PM–4 PM	75.4% on time206 flights	76.1% on time206 flights	71.4% on time203 flights	67.0% on time200 flights	66.2% on time202 flights	112 flights, too few to score	75.1% on time203 flights
4 PM–5 PM	68 flights, too few to score	68 flights, too few to score	71 flights, too few to score	71 flights, too few to score	71 flights, too few to score	80 flights, too few to score	70 flights, too few to score
5 PM–6 PM	65.0% on time253 flights	62.2% on time247 flights	53.1% on time245 flights	52.9% on time248 flights	53.5% on time252 flights	73.5% on time218 flights	60.4% on time250 flights
6 PM–7 PM	59.8% on time197 flights	64.4% on time202 flights	57.7% on time203 flights	58.6% on time191 flights	52.1% on time195 flights	66.7% on time125 flights	60.3% on time197 flights
7 PM–8 PM	70.7% on time187 flights	71.6% on time184 flights	69.2% on time179 flights	62.5% on time182 flights	66.1% on time182 flights	97 flights, too few to score	70.8% on time181 flights
8 PM–9 PM	67.2% on time186 flights	70.0% on time187 flights	69.7% on time189 flights	66.3% on time180 flights	70.2% on time189 flights	51 flights, too few to score	69.4% on time189 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM90.2%

9 AM–12 PM86.4%

12–3 PM81.2%

3–6 PM66.5%

6–9 PM65.7%

9 PM–5 AM74.5%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why DCA → ORD runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft42.4%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

Air traffic control27.5%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

The airline22.6%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Weather7.5%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security<0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DCA → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DCA → ORD, at 42.4%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.2% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 65.7%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of DCA to ORD: 4.2 times the normal rate at DCA and 5.5 times at ORD. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: DCA 9.3% against 2.2%, ORD 6.5% against 1.2%. Flights that did leave ORD in bad weather arrived on time 55.7% of the time, against 77.1% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from DCA and ORD in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	DCA	ORD
Cancelled in bad weather	9.3%	6.5%
Cancelled in normal hours	2.2%	1.2%
Arrived on time, bad weather	63.5%	55.7%
Arrived on time, normal hours	78.3%	77.1%
Departures in bad weather	41,449	104,455

Of the carriers on this route, United Airlines (4.6% cancelled against 9.7% for the other carriers at DCA) cancelled the fewest departures from DCA in bad weather and Republic Airways (10.7% cancelled against 9.0% for the other carriers at DCA) the most. One more carrier flies this route but has too few bad-weather departures from DCA to compare.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at DCA

All departures from DCA

Cancellation rates in bad weather at DCA for the airlines that fly DCA to ORD, against the other carriers at DCA in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
United Airlines	1,902	4.6%below the others	9.7%
American Airlines	8,236	6.4%below the others	9.5%
Republic Airways	7,801	10.7%above the others	9.0%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from DCA and ORD, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from DCA on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: DCA (airlines), ORD, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
United Airlines	10,320	79.2%	1.99%	-6 min	8.5%
American Airlines	7,680	78.4%	2.57%	-11 min	9.7%
Republic Airways	1,553	80.4%	4.64%	-10 min	8.1%
SkyWest Airlines	446	78.3%	3.81%	-10 min	10.3%

United Airlines flew 51.6% of the 19,999 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 4.64% of its flights here against 1.99% for United Airlines.

Republic Airways arrived on time 2.1 percentage points more often than SkyWest Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
AA2304 American Airlines	6:59 AM	952	89.4%
AA2903 American Airlines	6:00 AM	879	84.1%
UA1793 United Airlines	6:30 AM	845	93.6%
UA2148 United Airlines	6:00 PM	787	56.0%

UA1793 (6:30 AM) arrived on time 93.6% of the time, 37.6 points more often than UA2148 (6:00 PM) at 56.0%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon80.1%

Tue80.6%

Wed77.7%

Thu78.5%

Fri75.0%

Sat83.2%

Sun78.8%

Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 8.2 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 14.0 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.9% against 79.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.0 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 20,170 DCA → ORD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

DCA airport ORD airport Return direction ORD → DCA

DCA→ORD

Right now

Route reliability

Why DCA → ORD flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why DCA → ORD runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at DCA

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology