Route profile
OAK→SEA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Oakland to Seattle, 672 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 75% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,621 flights. How this is calculated
OAK → SEA arrives on time 78.6% of the time; the return trip, SEA → OAK, arrives on time 74.2% of the time, a 4.5-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
OAK → SEA spends 25.9 minutes on the ground on a 672-mile trip: 14.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at OAK and 11.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at SEA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 90% of 3,357 comparable routes.
89.9% on time in a typical November, against 65.8% in June.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where OAK to SEA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
OAK to SEA struggles most at 7 PM: 58.4% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 9.5 points behind the 67.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.4 points.
OAK to SEA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 3 PM: 80.2% arrive on time, 7 points ahead of the 73.2% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
January is kinder to OAK to SEA than to routes of similar length: 85.9% on time against 79.1%, 6.8 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.8 points.
In June, OAK to SEA runs 6.5 points below routes of similar length, 65.8% on time to 72.3%. Against all other routes the gap is 6.9 points.
Alaska Airlines does better on OAK to SEA than on its routes of similar length: 83.7% on time here, 75.7% there, 8 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 5.7 points.
OAK to SEA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 58.4% | routes of similar length | 67.9% | −9.5 pts | 279 here, 128,615 there |
| Hour: 3 PM departures | 80.2% | routes of similar length | 73.2% | +7.0 pts | 420 here, 131,891 there |
| Month: January | 85.9% | routes of similar length | 79.1% | +6.8 pts | 433 here, 163,421 there |
| Month: June | 65.8% | routes of similar length | 72.3% | −6.5 pts | 629 here, 187,092 there |
| Airline: Alaska Airlines | 83.7% | routes of similar length | 75.7% | +8.0 pts | 2,158 here, 53,947 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 672 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
35 min late
against a median of 4 min early
Percentiles over 6,621 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SEA after arriving from OAK.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 41% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 20% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.8% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.4% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.63% of the time and diverts 0.03% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,577 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 35 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,621 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
OAK → SEA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.8% of the time, against 64.1% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 28.7 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 94.9% on time from 198 flights
- 6 AM: 94.1% on time from 1,407 flights
- 7 AM: 93.1% on time from 321 flights
- 8 AM: 79.1% on time from 174 flights
- 9 AM: 80.2% on time from 249 flights
- 10 AM: 79.9% on time from 333 flights
- 11 AM: 80.7% on time from 267 flights
- 12 PM: 84.6% on time from 369 flights
- 1 PM: 74.1% on time from 293 flights
- 2 PM: 66.4% on time from 537 flights
- 3 PM: 80.2% on time from 423 flights
- 4 PM: 70.0% on time from 273 flights
- 5 PM: 68.7% on time from 368 flights
- 6 PM: 72.4% on time from 335 flights
- 7 PM: 58.4% on time from 279 flights
- 8 PM: 61.9% on time from 528 flights
- 9 PM: 67.2% on time from 250 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why OAK → SEA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for OAK → SEA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on OAK → SEA, at 50.5%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 92.8% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 64.1%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 4,117 | 76.2% | 0.17% | -2 min | 5.4% |
| Alaska Airlines | 2,189 | 83.7% | 1.42% | -8 min | 3.4% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 315 | 75.2% | 1.27% | 3 min | 7.4% |
Southwest Airlines flew 62.2% of the 6,621 flights listed. Alaska Airlines cancelled 1.42% of its flights here against 0.17% for Southwest Airlines.
Alaska Airlines arrived on time 8.5 percentage points more often than SkyWest Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly San Francisco to Seattle
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
SJC → SEA is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 83.9% on time, against 75.9% for SFO → SEA.
Flying to SEA from the San Francisco area? Compare OAK, SFO, SJC for SEA, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 12.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 85.9%
- Feb: 87.1%
- Mar: 83.1%
- Apr: 82.7%
- May: 76.5%
- Jun: 65.8%
- Jul: 74.3%
- Aug: 73.8%
- Sep: 76.1%
- Oct: 83.2%
- Nov: 89.9%
- Dec: 79.4%
June is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 24.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 78.5% from 299 flights
- August 2023: 74.0% from 303 flights
- September 2023: 74.5% from 236 flights
- October 2023: 86.4% from 206 flights
- November 2023: 92.0% from 188 flights
- December 2023: 80.9% from 183 flights
- January 2024: 82.1% from 171 flights
- February 2024: 84.7% from 158 flights
- March 2024: 81.9% from 171 flights
- April 2024: 83.7% from 180 flights
- May 2024: 74.0% from 192 flights
- June 2024: 64.0% from 222 flights
- July 2024: 72.1% from 233 flights
- August 2024: 76.2% from 228 flights
- September 2024: 79.0% from 205 flights
- October 2024: 83.3% from 186 flights
- November 2024: 91.9% from 149 flights
- December 2024: 80.1% from 161 flights
- January 2025: 88.6% from 132 flights
- February 2025: too few flights to score (102)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (111)
- April 2025: 88.0% from 125 flights
- May 2025: 76.4% from 148 flights
- June 2025: 68.2% from 220 flights
- July 2025: 71.4% from 233 flights
- August 2025: 70.7% from 199 flights
- September 2025: 74.7% from 166 flights
- October 2025: 78.8% from 161 flights
- November 2025: 85.1% from 153 flights
- December 2025: 76.7% from 151 flights
- January 2026: 87.6% from 147 flights
- February 2026: 91.2% from 137 flights
- March 2026: 80.8% from 124 flights
- April 2026: too few flights to score (119)
- May 2026: 80.6% from 124 flights
- June 2026: 65.2% from 187 flights
- July 2026: 73.9% from 211 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.7% against 79.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.2 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,621 OAK → SEA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed