Route profile
SEA→OAK
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Seattle to Oakland, 672 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 54% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,624 flights. How this is calculated
SEA → OAK arrives on time 74.2% of the time; the return trip, OAK → SEA, arrives on time 78.6% of the time, a 4.5-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
SEA → OAK spends 25.2 minutes on the ground on a 672-mile trip: 19.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SEA and 5.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at OAK.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 97% of 5,368 comparable routes.
74.0% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 73.8% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where SEA to OAK differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
SEA to OAK struggles most at 7 PM: 51.8% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 16.1 points behind the 67.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 16 points.
SEA to OAK is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 2 PM: 83.8% arrive on time, 9.7 points ahead of the 74.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.2 points.
Sunday is the day SEA to OAK slips furthest against routes of similar length, 67.6% on time where they average 74.5%, 6.9 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 7.2 points.
In September, SEA to OAK runs 9.1 points below routes of similar length, 73.4% on time to 82.5%. Against all other routes the gap is 9 points.
Alaska Airlines’ flights on SEA to OAK arrive on time 72.6% of the time, 3.6 points below the 76.2% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 5.4 points.
SEA to OAK against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 51.8% | routes of similar length | 67.9% | −16.1 pts | 342 here, 128,552 there |
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 83.8% | routes of similar length | 74.1% | +9.7 pts | 130 here, 124,912 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 67.6% | routes of similar length | 74.5% | −6.9 pts | 937 here, 331,552 there |
| Month: September | 73.4% | routes of similar length | 82.5% | −9.1 pts | 613 here, 182,090 there |
| Airline: Alaska Airlines | 72.6% | routes of similar length | 76.2% | −3.6 pts | 2,159 here, 53,946 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 672 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
42 min late
against a median of 1 min early
Percentiles over 6,624 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at OAK after arriving from SEA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 46% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.0% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.57% of the time and diverts 0.03% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,584 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 42 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,624 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
SEA → OAK flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 94.3% of the time, against 62.4% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 31.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 95.0% on time from 557 flights
- 6 AM: 95.5% on time from 223 flights
- 7 AM: 91.6% on time from 263 flights
- 8 AM: 95.0% on time from 160 flights
- 9 AM: 83.5% on time from 357 flights
- 10 AM: 81.8% on time from 422 flights
- 11 AM: 70.1% on time from 688 flights
- 12 PM: 77.2% on time from 545 flights
- 1 PM: 67.7% on time from 270 flights
- 2 PM: 83.8% on time from 131 flights
- 3 PM: 65.1% on time from 195 flights
- 4 PM: 65.4% on time from 205 flights
- 5 PM: 67.0% on time from 471 flights
- 6 PM: 71.6% on time from 328 flights
- 7 PM: 51.8% on time from 342 flights
- 8 PM: 64.0% on time from 401 flights
- 9 PM: 65.5% on time from 1,049 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why SEA → OAK runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SEA → OAK. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on SEA → OAK, at 56.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 94.3% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 62.4%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 4,100 | 74.5% | 0.12% | -2 min | 6.8% |
| Alaska Airlines | 2,190 | 72.6% | 1.37% | 0 min | 5.4% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 334 | 80.4% | 0.90% | 1 min | 4.8% |
Southwest Airlines flew 61.9% of the 6,624 flights listed. Alaska Airlines cancelled 1.37% of its flights here against 0.12% for Southwest Airlines.
SkyWest Airlines arrived on time 7.8 percentage points more often than Alaska Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly Seattle to San Francisco
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
SEA → SJC is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 81.3% on time, against 68.7% for SEA → SFO.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 14.1 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 79.7%
- Feb: 80.5%
- Mar: 73.4%
- Apr: 79.9%
- May: 73.9%
- Jun: 65.7%
- Jul: 69.3%
- Aug: 68.2%
- Sep: 73.4%
- Oct: 80.4%
- Nov: 81.7%
- Dec: 75.7%
June is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 16.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 70.5% from 295 flights
- August 2023: 71.1% from 287 flights
- September 2023: 74.0% from 243 flights
- October 2023: 86.2% from 203 flights
- November 2023: 81.8% from 188 flights
- December 2023: 83.0% from 183 flights
- January 2024: 74.3% from 168 flights
- February 2024: 83.8% from 154 flights
- March 2024: 71.3% from 181 flights
- April 2024: 77.6% from 184 flights
- May 2024: 71.2% from 192 flights
- June 2024: 61.1% from 221 flights
- July 2024: 71.2% from 233 flights
- August 2024: 68.1% from 228 flights
- September 2024: 74.6% from 205 flights
- October 2024: 74.6% from 185 flights
- November 2024: 83.9% from 150 flights
- December 2024: 77.6% from 161 flights
- January 2025: 83.2% from 131 flights
- February 2025: too few flights to score (100)
- March 2025: too few flights to score (111)
- April 2025: 81.6% from 125 flights
- May 2025: 75.8% from 149 flights
- June 2025: 66.7% from 219 flights
- July 2025: 65.4% from 233 flights
- August 2025: 64.1% from 199 flights
- September 2025: 71.1% from 166 flights
- October 2025: 79.7% from 178 flights
- November 2025: 79.3% from 153 flights
- December 2025: 64.7% from 151 flights
- January 2026: 82.1% from 147 flights
- February 2026: 82.4% from 136 flights
- March 2026: 76.0% from 124 flights
- April 2026: 81.7% from 120 flights
- May 2026: 75.6% from 124 flights
- June 2026: 69.9% from 186 flights
- July 2026: 70.0% from 211 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.0% against 73.8% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,624 SEA → OAK flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed