Route profile
MSP→SFO
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to San Francisco, 1,589 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 53% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 5,973 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSP → SFO arrives on time 75.4% of the time; the return trip, SFO → MSP, arrives on time 84.4% of the time, an 8.9-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → SFO spends 27.8 minutes on the ground on a 1,589-mile trip: 19.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 8.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at SFO.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 98% of 3,357 comparable routes.
90.9% on time in a typical September, against 61.7% in May.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to SFO differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to SFO struggles most at 10 AM: 51.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 28.4 points behind the 80.0% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 31.1 points.
MSP to SFO is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 5 PM: 77.3% arrive on time, 7 points ahead of the 70.3% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
In May, MSP to SFO runs 13.3 points below routes of similar length, 61.7% on time to 75.0%. Against all other routes the gap is 13.6 points.
September is kinder to MSP to SFO than to routes of similar length: 90.9% on time against 82.1%, 8.8 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 8.5 points.
SkyWest Airlines’ flights on MSP to SFO arrive on time 70.1% of the time, 9.6 points below the 79.7% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 11.2 points.
MSP to SFO against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 10 AM departures | 51.6% | routes of similar length | 80.0% | −28.4 pts | 126 here, 90,085 there |
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 77.3% | routes of similar length | 70.3% | +7.0 pts | 211 here, 108,635 there |
| Month: May | 61.7% | routes of similar length | 75.0% | −13.3 pts | 481 here, 136,309 there |
| Month: September | 90.9% | routes of similar length | 82.1% | +8.8 pts | 486 here, 126,865 there |
| Airline: SkyWest Airlines | 70.1% | routes of similar length | 79.7% | −9.6 pts | 603 here, 12,681 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,589 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
48 min late
against a median of 5 min early
Percentiles over 5,973 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SFO after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 40% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 7.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.65% of the time and diverts 0.17% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 5,924 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 48 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 5,973 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → SFO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 82.8% of the time, against 69.7% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 13.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 6 AM: too few flights to score
- 7 AM: 84.9% on time from 494 flights
- 8 AM: 78.4% on time from 385 flights
- 9 AM: 74.0% on time from 772 flights
- 10 AM: 51.6% on time from 126 flights
- 11 AM: 77.8% on time from 994 flights
- 12 PM to 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 75.6% on time from 896 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 77.3% on time from 212 flights
- 6 PM: 72.8% on time from 858 flights
- 7 PM: 66.4% on time from 323 flights
- 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 69.8% on time from 608 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSP → SFO runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → SFO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 4,564 | 75.2% | 0.59% | -5 min | 6.7% |
| United Airlines | 796 | 81.0% | 0.88% | -10 min | 8.0% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 613 | 70.1% | 0.82% | -1 min | 10.4% |
Delta Air Lines flew 76.4% of the 5,973 flights listed.
United Airlines arrived on time 10.9 percentage points more often than SkyWest Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 11.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 81.6%
- Feb: 68.8%
- Mar: 68.9%
- Apr: 67.9%
- May: 61.7%
- Jun: 62.7%
- Jul: 74.6%
- Aug: 80.7%
- Sep: 90.9%
- Oct: 87.5%
- Nov: 83.2%
- Dec: 75.1%
May is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 29.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 81.8% from 197 flights
- August 2023: 90.2% from 174 flights
- September 2023: 90.9% from 164 flights
- October 2023: 89.8% from 168 flights
- November 2023: 91.2% from 148 flights
- December 2023: 86.1% from 151 flights
- January 2024: 79.4% from 132 flights
- February 2024: 64.2% from 126 flights
- March 2024: 49.7% from 145 flights
- April 2024: 53.5% from 145 flights
- May 2024: 58.0% from 150 flights
- June 2024: 63.5% from 170 flights
- July 2024: 83.0% from 200 flights
- August 2024: 71.0% from 186 flights
- September 2024: 92.7% from 167 flights
- October 2024: 93.5% from 200 flights
- November 2024: 78.0% from 165 flights
- December 2024: 77.6% from 157 flights
- January 2025: 88.9% from 135 flights
- February 2025: 68.4% from 133 flights
- March 2025: 74.3% from 146 flights
- April 2025: 85.0% from 160 flights
- May 2025: 83.7% from 166 flights
- June 2025: 80.0% from 181 flights
- July 2025: 75.1% from 193 flights
- August 2025: 81.8% from 181 flights
- September 2025: 89.2% from 157 flights
- October 2025: 78.2% from 170 flights
- November 2025: 81.0% from 148 flights
- December 2025: 59.7% from 139 flights
- January 2026: 76.6% from 142 flights
- February 2026: 73.6% from 129 flights
- March 2026: 83.2% from 142 flights
- April 2026: 63.9% from 166 flights
- May 2026: 43.0% from 169 flights
- June 2026: 44.8% from 183 flights
- July 2026: 58.5% from 188 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 68.8% against 80.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 12.1 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 5,973 MSP → SFO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed