Route profile
MSP→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Chicago, 349 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 75% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 8,624 flights. How this is calculated
MSP → MDW arrives on time 81.6% of the time; the return trip, MDW → MSP, arrives on time 78.8% of the time, a 2.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → MDW spends 22.6 minutes on the ground on a 349-mile trip: 17.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 5.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every airline on this route performs about the same, a narrower carrier gap than 92% of 2,692 comparable routes.
Southwest Airlines (82.1% on time) and SkyWest Airlines (80.5%) are close together here.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to MDW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 78.2% arrive on time, 6.5 points ahead of the 71.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.4 points.
MSP to MDW struggles most at 7 AM: 85.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 4.4 points behind the 89.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 2.7 points.
MSP to MDW holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 81.3% on time to their 76.5%, a 4.8 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 6.5 points.
April is kinder to MSP to MDW than to routes of similar length: 87.3% on time against 80.7%, 6.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 7.4 points.
In December, MSP to MDW runs 3.6 points below routes of similar length, 76.9% on time to 80.5%.
MSP to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 78.2% | routes of similar length | 71.7% | +6.5 pts | 326 here, 76,095 there |
| Hour: 7 AM departures | 85.1% | routes of similar length | 89.5% | −4.4 pts | 965 here, 81,460 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 81.3% | routes of similar length | 76.5% | +4.8 pts | 1,222 here, 182,804 there |
| Month: April | 87.3% | routes of similar length | 80.7% | +6.6 pts | 685 here, 102,327 there |
| Month: December | 76.9% | routes of similar length | 80.5% | −3.6 pts | 706 here, 99,466 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 349 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MSP → MDW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MSP → MDW cancelled 96 of 8,624 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 90. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 76.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 118 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 96 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
73 cancellations, 76.0% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
12 cancellations, 12.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
11 cancellations, 11.5% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
96 coded cancellations were recorded on MSP → MDW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
33 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 8,624 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 18% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.11% of the time and diverts 0.23% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,508 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 33 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 8,624 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.0% of the time, against 75.3% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 14.7 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 94.8% on time from 705 flights
- 6 AM: 92.1% on time from 327 flights
- 7 AM: 85.1% on time from 974 flights
- 8 AM: 93.1% on time from 218 flights
- 9 AM: 86.3% on time from 582 flights
- 10 AM: 87.7% on time from 629 flights
- 11 AM: 81.5% on time from 716 flights
- 12 PM: 76.9% on time from 512 flights
- 1 PM: 81.9% on time from 336 flights
- 2 PM: 77.4% on time from 448 flights
- 3 PM: 77.3% on time from 544 flights
- 4 PM: 75.1% on time from 991 flights
- 5 PM: 74.0% on time from 417 flights
- 6 PM: 71.8% on time from 392 flights
- 7 PM: 78.2% on time from 334 flights
- 8 PM: 76.3% on time from 400 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSP → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 5,747 | 82.1% | 1.27% | -8 min | 4.4% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 2,869 | 80.5% | 0.80% | -5 min | 6.9% |
Southwest Airlines flew 66.7% of the 8,616 flights listed.
Carriers on this route performed within a couple of percentage points of each other.
Other ways to fly Minneapolis to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSP→ORD Minneapolis to Chicago | 18,306 | 75.4% | 1.59% | -5 min | 56 |
| MSP→MDW this route Minneapolis to Chicago | 8,624 | 81.6% | 1.11% | -7 min | 75 |
MSP → MDW is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 81.6% on time, against 75.4% for MSP → ORD.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 7.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 79.0%
- Feb: 85.3%
- Mar: 80.7%
- Apr: 87.3%
- May: 82.6%
- Jun: 71.9%
- Jul: 72.7%
- Aug: 80.1%
- Sep: 87.1%
- Oct: 89.4%
- Nov: 87.9%
- Dec: 76.9%
June is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 17.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 68.8% from 319 flights
- August 2023: 80.2% from 327 flights
- September 2023: 87.8% from 288 flights
- October 2023: 85.3% from 300 flights
- November 2023: 88.4% from 277 flights
- December 2023: 86.8% from 273 flights
- January 2024: 82.4% from 227 flights
- February 2024: 87.9% from 198 flights
- March 2024: 86.3% from 243 flights
- April 2024: 88.4% from 241 flights
- May 2024: 76.5% from 248 flights
- June 2024: 63.6% from 251 flights
- July 2024: 73.3% from 260 flights
- August 2024: 83.5% from 256 flights
- September 2024: 90.3% from 247 flights
- October 2024: 94.1% from 237 flights
- November 2024: 87.9% from 218 flights
- December 2024: 78.9% from 229 flights
- January 2025: 83.9% from 212 flights
- February 2025: 84.0% from 190 flights
- March 2025: 84.1% from 228 flights
- April 2025: 89.9% from 229 flights
- May 2025: 87.3% from 238 flights
- June 2025: 81.9% from 243 flights
- July 2025: 75.3% from 249 flights
- August 2025: 76.3% from 238 flights
- September 2025: 82.7% from 232 flights
- October 2025: 89.8% from 246 flights
- November 2025: 87.3% from 214 flights
- December 2025: 62.4% from 215 flights
- January 2026: 69.6% from 186 flights
- February 2026: 83.9% from 180 flights
- March 2026: 70.8% from 226 flights
- April 2026: 83.3% from 220 flights
- May 2026: 85.2% from 149 flights
- June 2026: 69.5% from 144 flights
- July 2026: 75.9% from 146 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 78.3% against 85.1% in the 12 months before — declining by 6.8 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 8,624 MSP → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed