Route profile
MDW→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Minneapolis, 349 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 58% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 8,560 flights. How this is calculated
MDW → MSP arrives on time 78.8% of the time; the return trip, MSP → MDW, arrives on time 81.6% of the time, a 2.8-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MDW → MSP spends 21.3 minutes on the ground on a 349-mile trip: 15.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 5.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 94% of 3,357 comparable routes.
88.2% on time in a typical November, against 62.5% in June.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to MSP struggles most at 10 PM: 58.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 10.2 points behind the 69.1% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.8 points.
MDW to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 76.9% arrive on time, 6 points ahead of the 70.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 9.5 points.
In June, MDW to MSP runs 12.2 points below routes of similar length, 62.5% on time to 74.7%. Against all other routes the gap is 10.2 points.
February is kinder to MDW to MSP than to routes of similar length: 87.3% on time against 82.1%, 5.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 5.9 points.
Southwest Airlines’ flights on MDW to MSP arrive on time 77.8% of the time, 3.1 points below the 80.9% it manages on its routes of similar length.
MDW to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 10 PM departures | 58.9% | routes of similar length | 69.1% | −10.2 pts | 302 here, 31,147 there |
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 76.9% | routes of similar length | 70.9% | +6.0 pts | 346 here, 69,994 there |
| Month: June | 62.5% | routes of similar length | 74.7% | −12.2 pts | 622 here, 102,168 there |
| Month: February | 87.3% | routes of similar length | 82.1% | +5.2 pts | 557 here, 88,208 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 77.8% | routes of similar length | 80.9% | −3.1 pts | 5,616 here, 441,878 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 349 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MDW → MSP flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MDW → MSP cancelled 80 of 8,560 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 107. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 72.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 148 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 80 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
58 cancellations, 72.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
11 cancellations, 13.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
11 cancellations, 13.8% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
80 coded cancellations were recorded on MDW → MSP; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
41 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 8,560 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 37% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.8% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.93% of the time and diverts 0.07% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,474 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 41 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 8,560 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.0% of the time, against 60.0% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 30.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 98.4% on time from 129 flights
- 6 AM: 92.5% on time from 363 flights
- 7 AM: 84.5% on time from 438 flights
- 8 AM: 90.8% on time from 549 flights
- 9 AM: 83.7% on time from 817 flights
- 10 AM: 84.7% on time from 544 flights
- 11 AM: 82.0% on time from 561 flights
- 12 PM: 83.0% on time from 372 flights
- 1 PM: 81.4% on time from 596 flights
- 2 PM: 80.3% on time from 619 flights
- 3 PM: 73.5% on time from 419 flights
- 4 PM: 65.1% on time from 341 flights
- 5 PM: 72.6% on time from 554 flights
- 6 PM: 73.9% on time from 439 flights
- 7 PM: 73.6% on time from 787 flights
- 8 PM: 76.9% on time from 349 flights
- 9 PM: 60.8% on time from 376 flights
- 10 PM: 58.9% on time from 307 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MDW → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 5,682 | 77.8% | 1.07% | -4 min | 5.9% |
| SkyWest Airlines | 2,869 | 80.6% | 0.66% | -9 min | 8.2% |
Southwest Airlines flew 66.4% of the 8,551 flights listed.
SkyWest Airlines arrived on time 2.8 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Other ways to fly Chicago to Minneapolis
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→MSP Chicago to Minneapolis | 18,310 | 73.3% | 1.48% | -4 min | 53 |
| MDW→MSP this route Chicago to Minneapolis | 8,560 | 78.8% | 0.93% | -6 min | 69 |
MDW → MSP is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 78.8% on time, against 73.3% for ORD → MSP.
Flying to MSP from the Chicago area? Compare MDW, ORD for MSP, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 8.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.6%
- Feb: 87.3%
- Mar: 78.4%
- Apr: 84.2%
- May: 80.2%
- Jun: 62.5%
- Jul: 65.8%
- Aug: 74.8%
- Sep: 84.1%
- Oct: 87.9%
- Nov: 88.2%
- Dec: 78.0%
June is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 25.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 71.4% from 321 flights
- August 2023: 79.1% from 327 flights
- September 2023: 85.8% from 289 flights
- October 2023: 84.7% from 295 flights
- November 2023: 87.0% from 276 flights
- December 2023: 89.5% from 274 flights
- January 2024: 77.7% from 219 flights
- February 2024: 91.0% from 189 flights
- March 2024: 80.5% from 241 flights
- April 2024: 85.9% from 241 flights
- May 2024: 75.8% from 248 flights
- June 2024: 48.0% from 252 flights
- July 2024: 56.4% from 260 flights
- August 2024: 69.9% from 256 flights
- September 2024: 85.4% from 247 flights
- October 2024: 92.0% from 238 flights
- November 2024: 91.4% from 220 flights
- December 2024: 79.7% from 228 flights
- January 2025: 81.0% from 211 flights
- February 2025: 83.6% from 190 flights
- March 2025: 85.0% from 228 flights
- April 2025: 83.6% from 221 flights
- May 2025: 82.6% from 230 flights
- June 2025: 76.9% from 242 flights
- July 2025: 69.4% from 249 flights
- August 2025: 74.2% from 237 flights
- September 2025: 80.6% from 232 flights
- October 2025: 87.8% from 246 flights
- November 2025: 86.5% from 215 flights
- December 2025: 61.8% from 214 flights
- January 2026: 73.7% from 186 flights
- February 2026: 87.2% from 180 flights
- March 2026: 68.9% from 225 flights
- April 2026: 82.9% from 220 flights
- May 2026: 83.8% from 149 flights
- June 2026: 64.1% from 132 flights
- July 2026: 64.3% from 132 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.0% against 81.5% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.5 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 8,560 MDW → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed