Route profile
MSP→MCO
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Orlando, 1,310 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 45% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,313 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSP → MCO arrives on time 78.0% of the time; the return trip, MCO → MSP, arrives on time 79.4% of the time.
MSP → MCO spends 30.3 minutes on the ground on a 1,310-mile trip: 17.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 12.5 minutes from touchdown to gate at MCO.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to MCO differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to MCO struggles most at 1 PM: 68.5% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 7.1 points behind the 75.6% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.6 points.
MSP to MCO is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 4 PM: 76.4% arrive on time, 6.7 points ahead of the 69.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.7 points.
MSP to MCO holds up on Thursdays better than routes of similar length do: 80.3% on time to their 76.4%, a 3.9 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 3.5 points.
September is kinder to MSP to MCO than to routes of similar length: 87.4% on time against 82.2%, 5.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 5 points.
In March, MSP to MCO runs 4.3 points below routes of similar length, 72.8% on time to 77.1%. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
MSP to MCO against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 1 PM departures | 68.5% | routes of similar length | 75.6% | −7.1 pts | 235 here, 94,328 there |
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 76.4% | routes of similar length | 69.7% | +6.7 pts | 276 here, 109,659 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 80.3% | routes of similar length | 76.4% | +3.9 pts | 907 here, 256,241 there |
| Month: September | 87.4% | routes of similar length | 82.2% | +5.2 pts | 365 here, 133,835 there |
| Month: March | 72.8% | routes of similar length | 77.1% | −4.3 pts | 728 here, 150,000 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,310 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MSP → MCO flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MSP → MCO cancelled 70 of 6,313 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 90. The reason filed most often was the airline, 50.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 180 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 70 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
35 cancellations, 50.0% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
32 cancellations, 45.7% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
3 cancellations, 4.3% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
70 coded cancellations were recorded on MSP → MCO; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
46 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 6,313 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MCO after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 37% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.8% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.8% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.11% of the time and diverts 0.30% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,224 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 46 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,313 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → MCO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.0% of the time, against 70.3% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 18.7 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 90.3% on time from 509 flights
- 7 AM: 88.2% on time from 783 flights
- 8 AM: 88.2% on time from 140 flights
- 9 AM: 78.7% on time from 510 flights
- 10 AM: 80.1% on time from 778 flights
- 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 78.2% on time from 913 flights
- 1 PM: 68.5% on time from 237 flights
- 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 70.6% on time from 692 flights
- 4 PM: 76.4% on time from 281 flights
- 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 70.8% on time from 571 flights
- 7 PM: 70.3% on time from 486 flights
- 8 PM: 68.9% on time from 200 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSP → MCO runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → MCO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 5,755 | 78.3% | 1.04% | -6 min | 7.6% |
| Frontier Airlines | 367 | 75.5% | 2.18% | -15 min | 11.1% |
Delta Air Lines flew 94.0% of the 6,122 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 2.18% of its flights here against 1.04% for Delta Air Lines.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 2.8 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 75.0%
- Feb: 81.4%
- Mar: 72.8%
- Apr: 83.3%
- May: 77.5%
- Jun: 70.5%
- Jul: 71.4%
- Aug: 71.7%
- Sep: 87.4%
- Oct: 88.0%
- Nov: 86.9%
- Dec: 75.4%
June is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 17.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 75.7% from 153 flights
- August 2023: 75.9% from 145 flights
- September 2023: 88.3% from 122 flights
- October 2023: 86.9% from 145 flights
- November 2023: 87.4% from 159 flights
- December 2023: 89.0% from 191 flights
- January 2024: 78.0% from 201 flights
- February 2024: 87.7% from 205 flights
- March 2024: 70.1% from 271 flights
- April 2024: 83.6% from 233 flights
- May 2024: 79.0% from 186 flights
- June 2024: 70.4% from 162 flights
- July 2024: 66.7% from 161 flights
- August 2024: 70.5% from 153 flights
- September 2024: 89.6% from 125 flights
- October 2024: 90.9% from 153 flights
- November 2024: 90.3% from 154 flights
- December 2024: 65.6% from 183 flights
- January 2025: 82.9% from 178 flights
- February 2025: 80.8% from 167 flights
- March 2025: 74.1% from 244 flights
- April 2025: 82.9% from 216 flights
- May 2025: 80.5% from 162 flights
- June 2025: 65.8% from 150 flights
- July 2025: 72.7% from 153 flights
- August 2025: 68.4% from 134 flights
- September 2025: 84.2% from 120 flights
- October 2025: 86.1% from 146 flights
- November 2025: 82.6% from 140 flights
- December 2025: 70.4% from 164 flights
- January 2026: 62.2% from 158 flights
- February 2026: 74.1% from 166 flights
- March 2026: 74.7% from 237 flights
- April 2026: 83.3% from 210 flights
- May 2026: 72.8% from 165 flights
- June 2026: 75.5% from 147 flights
- July 2026: 70.5% from 154 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.3% against 78.5% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.2 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,313 MSP → MCO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed