Route profile
MCO→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Orlando to Minneapolis, 1,310 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 42% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,315 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MCO → MSP arrives on time 79.4% of the time; the return trip, MSP → MCO, arrives on time 78.0% of the time.
MCO → MSP spends 27.3 minutes on the ground on a 1,310-mile trip: 20.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 7.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Reliability here swings unusually widely by season, a wider month-to-month spread than 97% of 3,357 comparable routes.
91.0% on time in a typical October, against 63.0% in July.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MCO to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MCO to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 79.5% arrive on time, 14.7 points ahead of the 64.8% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.1 points.
MCO to MSP struggles most at 6 PM: 65.8% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 3.2 points behind the 69.0% on routes of similar length at the same hour.
MCO to MSP holds up on Wednesdays better than routes of similar length do: 83.5% on time to their 79.8%, a 3.7 points lead.
October is kinder to MCO to MSP than to routes of similar length: 91.0% on time against 82.8%, 8.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 8 points.
In July, MCO to MSP runs 6.5 points below routes of similar length, 63.0% on time to 69.5%. Against all other routes the gap is 6.7 points.
MCO to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 79.5% | routes of similar length | 64.8% | +14.7 pts | 122 here, 68,012 there |
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 65.8% | routes of similar length | 69.0% | −3.2 pts | 1,039 here, 114,089 there |
| Weekday: Wednesday | 83.5% | routes of similar length | 79.8% | +3.7 pts | 836 here, 240,527 there |
| Month: October | 91.0% | routes of similar length | 82.8% | +8.2 pts | 431 here, 144,354 there |
| Month: July | 63.0% | routes of similar length | 69.5% | −6.5 pts | 603 here, 192,396 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,310 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MCO → MSP flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MCO → MSP cancelled 63 of 6,315 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 100. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 52.4% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 191 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 63 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
33 cancellations, 52.4% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
28 cancellations, 44.4% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
2 cancellations, 3.2% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
63 coded cancellations were recorded on MCO → MSP; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
51 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 6,315 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from MCO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 36% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 20% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 8.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.6% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.00% of the time and diverts 0.06% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,248 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 51 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,315 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MCO → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.2% of the time, against 64.4% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 26.8 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 91.5% on time from 938 flights
- 7 AM: 91.0% on time from 481 flights
- 8 AM: 89.8% on time from 167 flights
- 9 AM: 90.5% on time from 256 flights
- 10 AM: 84.5% on time from 273 flights
- 11 AM: 83.2% on time from 521 flights
- 12 PM: 84.5% on time from 333 flights
- 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 80.4% on time from 465 flights
- 3 PM: 73.5% on time from 581 flights
- 4 PM: 68.5% on time from 438 flights
- 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 65.8% on time from 1,054 flights
- 7 PM: too few flights to score
- 8 PM: 79.5% on time from 124 flights
- 9 PM: 64.3% on time from 440 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MCO → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → MSP, at 40.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.2% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 64.4%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 5,757 | 79.2% | 1.02% | -6 min | 9.1% |
| Frontier Airlines | 367 | 81.5% | 1.09% | -11 min | 5.5% |
Delta Air Lines flew 94.0% of the 6,124 flights listed.
Frontier Airlines arrived on time 2.3 percentage points more often than Delta Air Lines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.9 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 83.2%
- Feb: 81.6%
- Mar: 78.3%
- Apr: 84.4%
- May: 75.1%
- Jun: 70.1%
- Jul: 63.0%
- Aug: 73.5%
- Sep: 88.5%
- Oct: 91.0%
- Nov: 87.6%
- Dec: 81.4%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 28.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 55.9% from 153 flights
- August 2023: 79.3% from 145 flights
- September 2023: 86.8% from 122 flights
- October 2023: 91.0% from 145 flights
- November 2023: 90.6% from 159 flights
- December 2023: 89.5% from 191 flights
- January 2024: 90.0% from 201 flights
- February 2024: 86.3% from 205 flights
- March 2024: 75.4% from 271 flights
- April 2024: 80.7% from 233 flights
- May 2024: 72.6% from 186 flights
- June 2024: 69.8% from 162 flights
- July 2024: 64.2% from 161 flights
- August 2024: 70.2% from 153 flights
- September 2024: 88.1% from 126 flights
- October 2024: 92.9% from 152 flights
- November 2024: 90.2% from 153 flights
- December 2024: 78.8% from 184 flights
- January 2025: 84.5% from 177 flights
- February 2025: 86.8% from 167 flights
- March 2025: 79.7% from 244 flights
- April 2025: 87.1% from 217 flights
- May 2025: 75.9% from 162 flights
- June 2025: 66.4% from 150 flights
- July 2025: 62.9% from 153 flights
- August 2025: 70.9% from 134 flights
- September 2025: 90.8% from 120 flights
- October 2025: 89.0% from 146 flights
- November 2025: 81.2% from 140 flights
- December 2025: 75.0% from 166 flights
- January 2026: 73.1% from 157 flights
- February 2026: 70.5% from 166 flights
- March 2026: 80.3% from 237 flights
- April 2026: 85.8% from 211 flights
- May 2026: 77.2% from 165 flights
- June 2026: 74.1% from 147 flights
- July 2026: 69.1% from 154 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 78.1% against 80.4% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,315 MCO → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed