Route profile
MSP→HNL
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Honolulu, 3,972 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 73% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 1,125 flights. How this is calculated
MSP → HNL arrives on time 83.4% of the time; the return trip, HNL → MSP, arrives on time 86.9% of the time, a 3.5-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → HNL spends 25.6 minutes on the ground on a 3,972-mile trip: 18.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 7.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at HNL.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 94% of 4,467 comparable routes.
86.0% on time on the best day (Monday) against 81.6% on the worst (Friday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to HNL differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to HNL is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 10 AM: 84.2% arrive on time, 6.9 points ahead of the 77.3% those routes manage at that hour.
July is kinder to MSP to HNL than to routes of similar length: 85.0% on time against 76.5%, 8.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 15.3 points.
Delta Air Lines does better on MSP to HNL than on its routes of similar length: 83.4% on time here, 78.8% there, 4.6 points apart.
MSP to HNL against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 10 AM departures | 84.2% | routes of similar length | 77.3% | +6.9 pts | 861 here, 1,755 there |
| Month: July | 85.0% | routes of similar length | 76.5% | +8.5 pts | 120 here, 2,006 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 83.4% | routes of similar length | 78.8% | +4.6 pts | 1,111 here, 6,099 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 3,972 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
32 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 1,125 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at HNL after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 32% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 16% | High risk |
| 60 min | 10% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.4% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.71% of the time and diverts 0.53% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 1,111 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 32 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 1,125 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Why MSP → HNL runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → HNL. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,125 | 83.4% | 0.71% | -8 min | 6.7% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL312 Delta Air Lines | 10:00 AM | 691 | 83.4% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Monday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 4.4 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 82.5% against 84.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.4 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 1,125 MSP → HNL flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed