Route profile
MSP→EWR
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Newark, 1,008 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 19% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,863 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSP → EWR arrives on time 77.6% of the time; the return trip, EWR → MSP, arrives on time 78.1% of the time.
MSP → EWR spends 28.3 minutes on the ground on a 1,008-mile trip: 19.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 9.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at EWR.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to EWR differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to EWR struggles most at 2 PM: 60.7% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 12.7 points behind the 73.4% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.9 points.
MSP to EWR is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 8 PM: 76.2% arrive on time, 10.2 points ahead of the 66.0% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8.8 points.
In November, MSP to EWR runs 7.3 points below routes of similar length, 75.7% on time to 83.0%. Against all other routes the gap is 7.7 points.
January is kinder to MSP to EWR than to routes of similar length: 84.0% on time against 77.3%, 6.7 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 4.9 points.
Delta Air Lines’ flights on MSP to EWR arrive on time 75.2% of the time, 5.5 points below the 80.7% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 6.3 points.
MSP to EWR against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 60.7% | routes of similar length | 73.4% | −12.7 pts | 572 here, 177,893 there |
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 76.2% | routes of similar length | 66.0% | +10.2 pts | 673 here, 146,890 there |
| Month: November | 75.7% | routes of similar length | 83.0% | −7.3 pts | 494 here, 236,785 there |
| Month: January | 84.0% | routes of similar length | 77.3% | +6.7 pts | 494 here, 225,780 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 75.2% | routes of similar length | 80.7% | −5.5 pts | 3,767 here, 459,229 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,008 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MSP → EWR flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MSP → EWR cancelled 172 of 6,863 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 40. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 58.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 68 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 172 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
101 cancellations, 58.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
46 cancellations, 26.7% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
25 cancellations, 14.5% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
172 coded cancellations were recorded on MSP → EWR; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
60 min late
against a median of 9 min early
MSP → EWR has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 9 min early, but the worst tenth are 69 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 6,863 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at EWR after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.9% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.4% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.51% of the time and diverts 0.39% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,664 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 60 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,863 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → EWR flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 86.8% of the time, against 68.6% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 18.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 91.4% on time from 634 flights
- 7 AM: 85.7% on time from 1,218 flights
- 8 AM: 79.6% on time from 207 flights
- 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 78.5% on time from 660 flights
- 11 AM: 80.3% on time from 335 flights
- 12 PM: 79.7% on time from 364 flights
- 1 PM: 77.3% on time from 640 flights
- 2 PM: 60.7% on time from 603 flights
- 3 PM to 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 66.0% on time from 263 flights
- 6 PM: 76.8% on time from 242 flights
- 7 PM: 68.3% on time from 887 flights
- 8 PM: 76.2% on time from 691 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MSP → EWR runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → EWR. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 3,870 | 75.2% | 2.09% | -7 min | 11.0% |
| United Airlines | 1,782 | 78.4% | 2.30% | -11 min | 11.1% |
| Republic Airways | 1,190 | 84.2% | 4.20% | -16 min | 5.7% |
Delta Air Lines flew 56.6% of the 6,842 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 4.20% of its flights here against 2.09% for Delta Air Lines.
Republic Airways arrived on time 9.0 percentage points more often than Delta Air Lines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 7.0 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 84.0%
- Feb: 84.7%
- Mar: 82.4%
- Apr: 81.2%
- May: 75.9%
- Jun: 75.9%
- Jul: 68.6%
- Aug: 75.3%
- Sep: 79.3%
- Oct: 81.7%
- Nov: 75.7%
- Dec: 70.7%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 16.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 71.6% from 209 flights
- August 2023: 87.7% from 213 flights
- September 2023: 71.1% from 202 flights
- October 2023: 85.8% from 212 flights
- November 2023: 91.9% from 172 flights
- December 2023: 89.3% from 168 flights
- January 2024: 85.0% from 171 flights
- February 2024: 90.5% from 161 flights
- March 2024: 88.6% from 177 flights
- April 2024: 81.4% from 188 flights
- May 2024: 81.9% from 212 flights
- June 2024: 69.7% from 205 flights
- July 2024: 66.2% from 211 flights
- August 2024: 65.7% from 210 flights
- September 2024: 87.6% from 203 flights
- October 2024: 85.0% from 206 flights
- November 2024: 66.3% from 169 flights
- December 2024: 63.9% from 169 flights
- January 2025: 83.6% from 174 flights
- February 2025: 81.4% from 160 flights
- March 2025: 81.4% from 179 flights
- April 2025: 70.6% from 162 flights
- May 2025: 42.1% from 152 flights
- June 2025: 76.6% from 174 flights
- July 2025: 59.9% from 184 flights
- August 2025: 71.9% from 198 flights
- September 2025: 79.1% from 203 flights
- October 2025: 73.9% from 202 flights
- November 2025: 68.0% from 167 flights
- December 2025: 57.8% from 169 flights
- January 2026: 83.3% from 170 flights
- February 2026: 81.9% from 157 flights
- March 2026: 77.1% from 180 flights
- April 2026: 90.8% from 176 flights
- May 2026: 94.4% from 202 flights
- June 2026: 81.9% from 200 flights
- July 2026: 76.7% from 196 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 78.2% against 72.5% in the 12 months before — improving by 5.7 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,863 MSP → EWR flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed